Conversion Therapy: A Look at Closers Becoming Starters
by Mark Allen Haverty
Published March 12, 2003

With this column, Mark Haverty makes his Baseball Notebook writing debut.  Mark is a staff writer at CreativeSports.com, covering baseball and football for them, and is also a frequent contributor to FantasyInsights baseball site.  In print, he was one of the writers for the Fantasy Football Guide 2002 and he is contributing to Rotoman's 2003 Fantasy Baseball Magazine.  He has his own site at RotoDojo, where he writes daily in-season columns on baseball.  He can be reached by email at mark@rotodojo.com.

It started so innocently.  One pitcher, formerly very successful as a closer had begun to struggle in the role. His team decided to bring in another closer at the trading deadline and demote him to the role of set-up man. Shortly thereafter, the team decided he would be better off as a starter.  That man is Derek Lowe.  Lowe made three starts in 2001, and was 1-0 in those three starts, with a 1.13 ERA and a 0.875 WHIP. Still, three starts is an incredibly small sample size, and there was no reason to expect greatness off of just those three starts.  Or was there? 

The 2002 season started off amazingly well for Lowe with a dominating performance against Baltimore, a solid start against Kansas City, and another dominating start, this time against the hated New York Yankees.  Lowe was racked in his fourth start of the season, again facing the Royals, so a little doubt set in. All doubt was erased though on a cold night in Boston at the end of April, facing the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Nine innings, one walk, no hits, six strikeouts.

Lowe would go on to finish the season 21-8 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Lowe also finished third in American League Cy Young voting so clearly the conversion from closer to starting pitcher was a success, so much so that many other teams are looking to do this with their former closers. Cincinnati’s Danny Graves and Arizona’s Byung-Hyun Kim are currently attempting the conversion and Keith Foulke, before leaving Chicago for Oakland, had openly talked about becoming a starter.

How will they work out?  What made Derek Lowe so successful in his converting from closing to starting?  Let’s take a look.

Derek Lowe

The biggest problem with Derek Lowe as a closer was that his repertoire of pitches was essentially wasted. A typical closer lives off of a two-pitch arsenal – a fastball and something off-speed.  Lowe, however, has a far better repertoire than that.  Lowe’s primary pitch is a devastating sinker but he also features a cut fastball, a curve, and a changeup.  Lowe’s sinker also helps the second reason he is such an effective starter – he is an extreme groundball pitcher.  Last year, Lowe induced 440 groundballs compared to 127 fly balls, for a 3.46 ratio. When you keep it on the ground, it’s not leaving the park.  It's simple logic yet it’s amazing how many pitchers cannot grasp that.  Lowe’s home runs per 9 ratio is a mind-boggling 0.49/9 IP. That’s lower than even Pedro Martinez last year.

While he is not a big strikeout pitcher, Lowe is efficient with his pitches.  Lowe averaged just 14 pitches per inning last year.  While I hate to keep using Pedro as the comparison, he’s the best, and he averaged 15.1 pitches per inning.  Like I said about the GB/FB ratio, and it’s a simple logic too many pitchers seem to forget, the more pitches the opposing batter gets to see, the easier it is for the hitter to get a hit.  Lowe also keeps people off the bases.  Lowe walked just 1.97 per nine innings and posted a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.65.  Again, more basics – you keep people off the bases and they cannot score.

Lowe was successful because he was more than your typical two-pitch closer.  He kept the ball in the ballpark, he was efficient with his pitches, and he was not giving out free bases. So, to figure out who the “next Derek Lowe” is, let’s see how each of the candidates does in these categories.

Danny Graves

The first criterion we set was that the closer attempting to become a starter must have more than one or two quality pitchers.  Not only does Danny Graves fit the bill like Lowe did but he is also primarily a sinkerball pitcher like Lowe. Graves also has a fastball, a straight change, and a breaking slider, all of which he can rely on for outs.

Graves’ success as a sinkerball pitcher has also made him an extreme groundball pitcher although not as extreme as Lowe.  Last year Graves induced 176 groundballs compared to 80 fly balls, giving him a GB/FB ratio of 2.20. Graves is similarly stingy with the home runs allowing just 0.64 home runs per nine innings.

As for being efficient, Graves was even more efficient in his pitches per inning than Lowe was.  Last year, Graves threw just 13.8 pitches per inning.  While this might not seem that important, it is very important to the conversion to starting – if a pitcher cannot minimize the number of pitches he throws, that pitcher simply cannot last long into a start and will find himself quickly back into the bullpen. Graves is not as stingy with the free bases as Lowe was but is still solid.  Last year, Graves allowed 2.29 walks per nine innings. Graves’ strikeout to walk ratio was a solid 2.32 last year and was even better in his four starts.  As a starter, Graves struck out 12 batters while walking just three.

So Graves, like Lowe, has a varied arsenal, keeps the ball on the ground, and is efficient with his pitches and is not giving up too many free bases. All of that bodes well for Graves.

Byung-Hyun Kim

For Byung-Hyun Kim becoming a starter is a matter of personal pride. In Korea, a reliever, any reliever, is merely someone that failed as a starter.  Kim, a starter for his native South Korea’s team, has never had the chance to either succeed or fail as a starter and he desperately wants that chance. With Matt Mantei finally healthy, the Diamondbacks will give Kim that opportunity this year.

Kim’s biggest weapon is his sidearm delivery, from which he throws his fastball from a variety of angles and speeds. Kim also has a slider that somehow finds a way to rise as it gets closer to the plate, often leaving the opposing batters looking as ridiculous as batters facing Bugs Bunny’s trick pitches in the cartoons.  Kim also has a changeup that comes at you around 70 MPH before dropping.  While not armed with the varied arsenal Graves and Lowe have, Kim is able to throw pitches from enough angles and positions to confuse the opposition.

While not as extreme as either Lowe or Graves, Kim also lives and dies by keeping the ball on the ground.  Last year, Kim induced 119 groundballs compared to 70 fly balls, for a 1.70 GB/FB ratio.  Although being most famous for the home runs he surrendered to the Yankees in the 2001 World Series, Kim was as stingy as the two previous pitchers when it comes to home runs.  Kim allowed five home runs last year in 84 innings, for a home run per nine inning ratio of 0.53.

The area that gets Kim into trouble is being efficient with his pitches.  Last year, Kim threw 16.1 pitches per inning.  While an improvement over previous seasons, this is still a higher number than one would like to see.  His strikeout-to-walk ratio, 3.54, is a lot better and is mostly a product of his high strikeout numbers.  The Diamondbacks realize that being efficient with his pitches remains an issue and have been working with him on this in spring training.

The early results on Kim so far this spring appear to be positive. After a rough first outing, where he gave up three runs off of four hits in his two innings of work, he has settled down and pitched two solid starts since then and allowed runs in neither one. So far, so good.

Keith Foulke

Keith Foulke will once again be a closer this year but he has stated, on numerous occasions, that he would prefer to be a starter. Foulke is entering his “walk” year, and it is entirely possible he could end up signing with a team in the off-season that would prefer to use him as a starter rather than a reliever.  Had Foulke stayed in Chicago this year, the lack of depth in their starting rotation would have likely resulted in that move being made this year, with Damaso Marte remaining the closer.  So, how does Foulke stack up as a possible starter?

While Foulke would like to become a starter, he does not have the repertoire necessary to make the transition smoothly.  Foulke has both a solid fastball and changeup but he has yet to develop a third pitch, let alone the fourth usually necessary to make a quality starter.

The second difference between Foulke and the other three in this article is that he is not an extreme groundball pitcher.  Last year, Foulke induced 93 groundballs compared to 89 fly balls, for a 1.04 GB/FB ratio.  This is actually the closest Foulke has come in the last five years to being a groundball pitcher.  The previous four years Foulke had GB/FB ratios of 0.79, 0.72, 0.63, and 0.66.  While he does keep the ball in the park, allowing just 0.81 home runs per nine innings, those low GB/FB ratios are a sign of possible danger as a starter. While there are successful fly ball starting pitchers, it is a far harder way to earn a living than keeping the ball on the ground.

One area where Foulke does compare well with the others on the list is in the area of pitch efficiency.  Foulke has steadily improved the amount of pitches per inning every year of his career and dropped it to a career low 14.7 last year.  Foulke also does not give up free bases as he allowed just 1.51 walks per nine innings last year and his 4.46 strikeout to walk ratio last year was very impressive.

Foulke’s pitch efficiency and control make him an excellent pitcher but his limited arsenal and fly ball tendencies make him a dangerous bet as a starting pitcher.  While he, like Kim, might prefer to start, it does not appear that he is suited for such a role.

Closing Comments

Whiile the trendy thing to do now is to look for “the next Derek Lowe,” a look at the numbers indicates that there might really be another Lowe out there – two of them in fact. Graves has the arsenal, the efficiency, and the ability to succeed as a starting pitcher.  Kim needs to work on becoming a more efficient pitcher but he too could easily succeed in the role.

The question will be stamina.  Both pitchers, if they stay in their respective rotations for the entire year, will pitch more innings than they have in the previous two seasons combined.  While both should be able to step up to the task, watch for signs of tiring around the All-Star break and be ready to deal either pitcher if they do appear to be tiring. Other than mid-to-late-season fatigue, I see no reason to worry with these two.

As for Foulke, as much as he would like to start, I just don’t see how he could succeed in such a role. While he is able to get the outs as a closer, a closer can get away with limited pitch selection but such a weakness is exploited by the opposition when starting.  He might want to be a starter, but it’s doubtful until he learns two more pitches that anyone will give him the chance.

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