Top 100 Prospects: NL Pitchers
published January 1, 2005
by David Luciani

Please do check back to part one of the series for some important notes about how these lists come together and just as, if not more importantly, what we mean when we define a prospect for purposes of this series, especially in terms of how much they need to have played in the minors in 2004 to be considered.  Teams listed are the organization which the player was in at the conclusion of the 2004 season.  Also crucial to understand is why a certain player that you may consider to be a top prospect might not make the list or be as high as you expected and part one of the series gave you some links to essays with my own detailed responses to such questions or concerns.  And so, we conclude with this four part series by giving you the top 100 NL pitching prospects:

TOP 100 NL PITCHING PROSPECTS

1. JOSE CAPELLAN, ATLANTA: He's now moved to Milwaukee and where, when I was talking about the best hitting prospects, I pointed out that this was the first time a top prospect changed teams since the end of the season, it actually happened twice this year as the man I'll call the best NL pitching prospect was traded in the Danny Kolb deal.  He's ready now, has a top fastball, one of the best around in the majors or minors, and that he struggled in his brief tryout with Atlanta last year shouldn't put you off.  I only hope he ends up as a starter.  I remember years ago when I had Billy Wagner as the top NL pitching prospect, I said the same thing and while Wagner has had a good career as a closer, I wouldn't have put him at #1 if I had known that's the role he would end up in rather than as a starter.  Expect Capellan to be a valuable contributor no later than 2006 and he could easily end up in the rotation right out of spring training this year if all goes well.  Certainly the Brewers are anxious to show their fans that they got something of immediate value for Danny Kolb.

2. ZACH DUKE, PITTSBURGH:  A lefty who doesn't throw particularly hard, though he does peak in the low nineties at times, he has excellent poise, good control and is making minor league hitters look like little leaguers.  Not as ready as Capellan, Duke will make it to at least Triple-A by the end of this season and we should see his debut in the majors within two years.  I actually think he's going to eventually have pretty good strikeout stuff when he's established, though not anything like one per inning and he's closer than you might expect in terms of ability.  I believe that whether he appears in 2005 (and it's unlikely he will before September at the earliest), he's not going to have too much of an adjustment period after he arrives.  Expect him to eventually be an ace starter.

3. JEFF FRANCIS, COLORADO:  Without a doubt, he had one of the best minor league seasons around in 2004 and most working against him is that if he ends up pitching half of his career (or at least the first part of it) in Colorado, he's going to be incapable of keeping his ERA below the mid 3's at the very best and if he did that, it would mean that he was having a Cy Young type season that was ruined by his home park.  He projects as an eventual big-time strikeout guy who will give up the occasional home run and he will quickly become the Rockies' ace.

4. YUSMEIRO PETIT, NEW YORK METS:  He's already got two big league ready pitches, even though his fastball isn't that hard, and he tried to add a slider within the past couple of years, which isn't close to being ready.  Don't let his minor league strikeout numbers fool you in that he's not a hard thrower but he's hard to pick up and he's one of those rare pitchers who doesn't even peak in the mid nineties but who I believe will still eventually be a big league strikeout guy because of the movement and deception of his pitches.  He's not ready yet and I expect his debut won't come until late 2006 or early 2007.  In 2004, at Single-A Capital City, Petit went 9-2 with a 2.39 ERA and 122 strikeouts in just 83 inning and at Single-A St. Lucie, he was even better, going 2-3 with a 1.22 ERA in 44.1 innings.  He didn't look close to ready in a two game stint with Double-A Binghamton, though.

5. BEN HENDRICKSON, MILWAUKEE:  He made it to the majors last year and got knocked around but I'm expecting sharp improvement this year, though I expect he'll spend more than half the time working out of the bullpen.  In fact, his future rests on whether he ends up in relief or starting.  Like Petit, he doesn't throw as hard as some other so-called top prospects and I really see two routes for him.  If he ends up as a reliever, I suspect he'll see good results in 2005 but only medium level development over the long-term, thus settling into perhaps a lower place than what a top five prospect would normally get.  If the Brewers use him exclusively as a starter in 2005, I expect him to perform at subpar levels for 2005 and into the early part of 2006 but at the benefit of his long-term career, which would then be quite good.  While he is ready for the majors now, I project that the stuff that will eventually make him an ace won't be developed until at least mid to late 2006.

6. FRANQUELIS OSORIA, LOS ANGELES:  Certainly unknown compared to these others, Osoria is a long way from even making a debut, likely not until late 2006 or 2007.  He has a strong sinking fastball and it's getting stronger as he gets older, already peaking in the mid nineties now.  The highest ranked reliever here, and that's what he projects to be for his career, Osoria won't allow many home runs and I expect him to be one of those rare pitchers who ends up as a closer in the majors without being a big-time strikeout guy.  As hard as he throws, he strikes me as an eventual 80 innings, 50 strikeout guy but I project him as one day being one of the most effective relievers in the majors, when he hits his peak.  I know I have rated him higher than most and his short-term upside is limited as he's a long way from being a big time contributor, at least three or four years at the soonest.  Though he won't appear in 2005, he was added to the Dodgers' 40-man roster this off-season.

7. BRAD BAKER, SAN DIEGO:  Once a top prospect when he was with Boston, he was sent to San Diego in the Alan Embree trade back in 2002 and he's recovered nicely from a disastrous 2003 campaign that saw him post a terrible 5.68 ERA at Double-A Mobile.  His change-up is one of the best in the minors and while he's not as hard a thrower as some closers, I expect he'll one day be a quite effective one and despite the limited velocity, he's not fully developed and I do think he'll eventually be a strikeout per inning guy in the majors.  When I was comparing Osoria and Baker, I tried to decide who would have the better career and ultimately went with Osoria but I believe that Baker will have the best individual season between the two but won't have the same longevity to his career.  Despite that, I expect Baker's graduation to be coming this season and for him to be an effective set-up man by the end of 2006 and a closer by 2007 or 2008.

8. LANCE CORMIER, ARIZONA:  Cormier rarely gets the attention he deserves because he doesn't have the kind of stuff that impresses scouts but consider that with the exception of a forgettable 17 game / 5 start stint with the big league club last year, he has rarely allowed a home run in the minors (just 3 in 113.1 minor league innings in 2004, and just 4 in 69 innings in 2003) and his control is much better than the statistics reveal.  I'm projecting him to have a mediocre big league portion to his 2005 season (currently all projected in relief with a 4.83 ERA over 39 games) and while I'm expecting him to pitch exclusively in relief in 2005, his appearance on this list is based on a belief that he eventually ends up as starting pitcher.  If that doesn't happen, he doesn't belong among the top ten as he has ace starter stuff but not closer stuff for a bullpen - while Cormier isn't in his league, try to picture Greg Maddux or Tom Glavine being used to close games.  I feel that Arizona rushed him and I'm hoping that they haven't ruined him because some pitchers never recover from getting knocked around the way Cormier did last year.  I project him to eventually be a top pitcher but only if he ends up as a starter.

9. DALE THAYER, SAN DIEGO:  He and Osoria are no doubt the least known in the top nine.  Thayer had a nightmare to start 2004, allowing seven runs in his first two innings but after that, he pitched 53.1 innings with a microscopic 0.68 ERA before getting promoted to Double-A Mobile.  He throws around 90 MPH and his slider has come along quickly.  His stuff remains underestimated and he's one of only two in the top ten who makes it for statistical reasons as his long-term projection is coming out quite high, higher than I would have noticed normally if I didn't do long-term analysis on the numbers.  Look for him to end up as either a closer or a very good set-up man with a long career.  As I say, he's making this list for statistical reasons and is one of the only ones here who doesn't have "scout loved" stuff so if you're into the so-called tools over numbers, he's one to skip.

10. ANTHONY RAWSON, ST. LOUIS:  Another lefty, Rawson has closed in the minors and projects as the same when he reaches the majors.  Of some concern is that his strikeout numbers haven't been there yet and he's the other pitcher I mentioned (in the Dale Thayer note above) who's making this list mostly because of his statistics and not his so-called tools.  He allowed just 1 home run in 78 minor league innings last year and if I believe the threshold analysis of my numbers, it's saying he's going to end up as a quite reliable, long-term closer in the big leagues, better than anyone expects but without huge strikeout numbers.

The best of the rest...

11. YORMAN BAZARDO, FLORIDA

12. DAN MEYER, ATLANTA

13. JAKE STEVENS, ATLANTA

14. CLAY RAPADA, CHICAGO CUBS

15. BEAR BAY, CHICAGO CUBS

16. GLENN WOOLARD, MILWAUKEE

17. MARCOS CARVAJAL, LOS ANGELES

18. BILLY PETRICK, CHICAGO CUBS

19. JAMAAL HAMILTON, LOS ANGELES

20. CHUCK JAMES, ATLANTA

21. RICHIE GARDNER, CINCINNATI

22. JUSTIN GERMANO, SAN DIEGO

23. TODD COFFEY, CINCINNATI

24. ROSS WOLF, FLORIDA

25. PAT MISCH, SAN FRANCISCO

26. GAVIN FLOYD, PHILADELPHIA

27. GREG RAMIREZ, NEW YORK METS

28. CHRIS DE MARIA, PITTSBURGH

29. SEAN MARSHALL, CHICAGO CUBS

30. DAVID AARDSMA, SAN FRANCISCO

31. BLAINE BOYER, ATLANTA

32. ROBERT RANSOM, CHICAGO CUBS

33. JORDAN PALS, ST. LOUIS

34. KEVIN DEATON, NEW YORK METS

35. ANTHONY PEARSON, WASHINGTON

36. JUAN MATEO, CHICAGO CUBS

37. SERGIO MITRE, CHICAGO CUBS

38. MATT ALBERS, HOUSTON

39. CLINT EVERTS, WASHINGTON

40. JUSTIN GARZE, ST. LOUIS

41. DEREK THOMPSON, LOS ANGELES

42. PACO REYES, PHILADELPHIA

43. SHAWN HILL, WASHINGTON

44. MONTE MANSFIELD, HOUSTON

45. DUSTIN NIPPERT, ARIZONA

46. DANA EVELAND, MILWAUKEE

47. DANNY HAREN, ST. LOUIS:  Traded to Oakland in the Mark Mulder deal.

48. GLENN TUCKER, ATLANTA

49. JONATHAN BROXTON, LOS ANGELES

50. CORY SCHULTZ, PHILADELPHIA

51. RANDY MESSENGER, FLORIDA

52. FERNANDO NIEVE, HOUSTON

53. JOSH SHARPLESS, PITTSBURGH

54. IAN SNELL, PITTSBURGH

55. MIKE ESPOSITO, COLORADO

56. MATT WRIGHT, ATLANTA

57. MIKE HINCKLEY, WASHINGTON

58. ANTHONY REYES, ST. LOUIS

59. JASON ALCALA, PITTSBURGH

60. WILLIAM JUAREZ, ARIZONA

61. TIM STAUFFER, SAN DIEGO

62. RENYEL PINTO, CHICAGO CUBS

63. RYAN KETCHNER, LOS ANGELES

64. CHAD BAILEY, LOS ANGELES

65. MATT CAIN, SAN FRANCISCO

66. LOGAN KENSING, FLORIDA

67. RICHARD BARTLETT, LOS ANGELES

68. DARRELL RASNER, WASHINGTON

69. RICH SCALAMANDRE, ST. LOUIS

70. ALVIS OJEDA, LOS ANGELES

71. BRIAN BANNISTER, NEW YORK METS

72. AARON WILLIAMS, HOUSTON

73. BILLY SADLER, SAN FRANCISCO

74. BOBBY BRADLEY, PITTSBURGH

75. CHAD BILLINGSLEY, LOS ANGELES

76. BRAD THOMPSON, ST. LOUIS

77. MARCUS DAVILA, PITTSBURGH

78. DIRK HAYHURST, SAN DIEGO

79. MANNY PARRA, MILWAUKEE

80. KYLE DAVIES, ATLANTA

81. NEAL MUSSER, NEW YORK METS

82. CHRIS NARVESON, COLORADO

83. NOAH LOWRY, SAN FRANCISCO

84. DUSTIN MOSELEY, CINCINNATI

85. LEONEL ROSALES, SAN DIEGO

86. BOBBY BROWNLIE, CHICAGO CUBS

87. JON CONNOLLY, CHICAGO CUBS

88. BRIAN BURRES, SAN FRANCISCO

89. CHRIS YOUNG, COLORADO

90. JEREMY ACCARDO, SAN FRANCISCO

91. JON SEARLES, WASHINGTON

92. BOB KEPPEL, NEW YORK METS

93. EDWIN JACKSON, LOS ANGELES

94. MICHAEL O'CONNOR, WASHINGTON

95. KEVIN CORREIA, SAN FRANCISCO

96. ALEC ZUMWALT, ATLANTA

97. RICH RUNDLES, WASHINGTON

98. SEAN WHITE, ATLANTA

99. JASON WADDELL, SAN FRANCISCO

100. ROBERTO BATISTA, ST. LOUIS