The Backup Closers
by David Luciani
published February 2, 2005

I know that one technique some readers are fond of using is to draft backup closers before they'll ever draft a middle reliever.  The gamble, as it goes, is that once in a while you end up with an actual closer and all those times you don't, you end up with a pretty good setup man who gets even more quality innings pitched when he's not the closer.

I looked back to last year's list around this time of so-called backup closers and a lot of them never got a chance but at least a few, such as Brad Lidge, LaTroy Hawkins and Shingo Takatsu, ended up breaking through to the coveted rule.

I'm not a huge believer in the strategy of going after backup closers because a lot has to go right for them to become a closer.  First, the main closer needs to get hurt or become entirely ineffective and particularly on the second count, clubs will stick with a proven closer long past their "best before" date.  Secondly, the backup needs to maintain his position as the #2 man on the team's depth chart and that means not only staying healthy himself but also maintaining a high level of effectiveness, often higher than the incumbent closer if he's to really get a chance to break through.  Velocity of pitches (and in many but not all cases, control of those pitches) remains high in importance in the eyes of a manager in search of closing options on his club.

So, let's take a team-by-team look at each closer situation and examine who the most likely candidate is to back up the so-called closer.  Note that the saves here will not necessarily match out the way I'm projecting in the latest forecast set and for good reason.  Our forecasts take into account the chance of injuries for all players and there are many setup men and backup closers who would seem to be the heir-apparent whom we are not projecting to get that chance this year because we're projecting the closer to be both effective and healthy enough to keep his job:

American League East

Baltimore:  The current closer appears to be B.J. Ryan and Jorge Julio, depending on whether he gets traded before the season starts, is an obvious backup choice but there are others here.  Matt Riley was a starter last year and with no apparent room for him in the rotation and with closer-like stuff, he's another option.

Boston:  If healthy, the main backup to Keith Foulke has to be Matt Mantei but there are others with closing experience such as Byung-Hyun Kim and even, in a much less likely scenario, Tim Wakefield.

New York:  Mariano Rivera is backed up by veteran former closer Flash Gordon.

Tampa Bay:  There is no immediate backup closer to Danys Baez and spring training will be an audition for the primary role of reserve closer and main setup man.  Franklin Nunez and his triple digit fastball would be an obvious backup choice.

Toronto:  The Blue Jays don't even know who their primary closer is, let alone a backup.  Billy Koch, Justin Speier and Jason Frasor are all candidates along with others who are less proven, such as Brandon League.

American League Central

Chicago: Damaso Marte seems to be the main backup to incumbent Shingo Takatsu.

Cleveland:  The Indians committed to Bob Wickman as their closer by re-signing him but that doesn't mean that someone like Rafael Betancourt or David Riske won't emerge here to steal some saves.  Arthur Rhodes takes over the role as the main backup to Wickman for now.

Detroit:  If Ugueth Urbina resolves the situation related to his mother's kidnapping, and sticks with Detroit, he's the definite backup to newly-signed Troy Percival.  Franklyn German is a more remote possibility.

Kansas City:  Jeremy Affeldt starts the season as the closer and last year, the Royals demonstrated just how little bullpen depth they had ready to step up here.  Someone like Shawn Camp or Scott Sullivan is likely to emerge as Affeldt's primary backup

Minnesota:  Jesse Crain is definitely the heir to Joe Nathan, though even if Nathan struggles, the Twins are likely to be patient with Crain and not rush him into that role if they feel it would be a confidence-breaker.

American League West

Anaheim:  With Troy Percival leaving and Francisco Rodriguez taking over as the closer, that leaves Brendan Donnelly and one of Esteban Yan or Scot Shields in a battle to take over eighth inning duties.

Oakland:  Octavio Dotel starts the season as the closer and it wouldn't be a tremendous surprise to see someone like Jairo Garcia or Huston Street emerge here as main backup options.

Seattle: Eddie Guardado's main backup looks to be either George Sherrill or J.J. Putz, neither of whom look ready for the role even if given the chance.

Texas:  Francisco Cordero is now a proven commodity and it would take an injury to unseat him.  There's no obvious closer waiting to step in though Frank Francisco has to be a candidate.  Trying to gamble on a backup closer here is too big a risk to be worth it as the park is bad for pitching stats, which means if he doesn't end up in the role you get burned with plenty of innings, and there's no clear #2 ready to step in if Cordero goes down.

National League East

Atlanta:  If Danny Kolb went down with an injury, you have to believe the Braves would consider moving John Smoltz back to the bullpen as he's already considered to be a better closer than Kolb and is only moving to the rotation because of the need for a solid starter.

Florida:  Guillermo Mota goes into spring training as the closer and the Marlins are hoping that Tim Spooneybarger, who is recovering from Tommy John surgerry, will end up as the #2 man in this bullpen.

Philadelphia:  Billy Wagner's main backup remains Tim Worrell.

New York:  Beyond Braden Looper, this is a squad bullpen audition this spring.  Bartolome Fortunato has a chance to emerge here as the backup but everyone beyond Looper is too big a risk if saves are your only interest.

Washington:  After Chad Cordero, it's an open audition here for late inning work and I can't recommend any backup here.  I suspect that Washington has yet to add an arm that will be the primary eventual set-up man here.

National League Central

Chicago:  Like so many other teams, the Cubs haven't committed to a closer but it's starting to shape up now that Ryan Dempster will get the first chance  and that pushes LaTroy Hawkins to #2.  Whichever one of these doesn't start the season with the job becomes the backup.  I'm expecting Joe Borowski to recover, pitching-wise, to some image of his former self but not to get more than a handful of saves, at most, this season.

Cincinnati:  Ryan Wagner is the obvious choice to be the closer the day Cincinnati waves good bye to Danny Graves.  It looks like Graves will actually stick around for now, though, and I don't expect Wagner to get much, if any chance, in 2005 unless Graves suffers a very long injury or gets traded.

Houston:  Brad Lidge's job is in no jeopardy at all but if he suffered an injury, the Astros would be in big trouble as they'd have to consider someone like Chad Qualls for the role.  The structure of the bullpen remains open heading into spring training, with the obvious exception of Lidge.

Milwaukee:  The Brewers haven't decided on their main closer yet, let alone the backup, but it seems that Mike Adams and maybe someone like Ricky Bottalico will get a look in the spring.  If he didn't end up in the rotation, Jose Capellan absolutely has closer stuff.

Pittsburgh:  I'm expecting Ian Snell to gradually come on as a reliable set-up man and backup to Jose Mesa but I don't expect he'll have established himself in that role until mid-season and so if Mesa went down early, that would leave this bullpen wide open.

St. Louis:  Here's a dark horse to emerge as a backup closer: Rick Ankiel.  Jason Isringhausen probably won't need backup but if Ankiel's control is even half of what it was before he fell off the wildness cliff, he has the stuff to close.  Al Reyes and Ray King are more obvious choices to back up here.

National League West

Arizona:  The Diamondbacks don't even have a closer, let alone a backup.  Greg Aquino is the best current bet in the bullpen for saves but I'm not expecting him to pitch well nor am I projecting the team to have too many save opportunities anyway, which makes him a medium level pick at best.

Colorado: Talk this winter has been that Shawn Chacon will move back to the rotation, which leaves the closer's role wide open.  Aaron Taylor is a candidate as is Chin-Hui Tsao.  I don't expect the Rockies would waste Jeff Francis in the bullpen but my projections do reflect the possibility that with the vacancy they have and with Francis's stuff, he would at least get consideration for that role this spring if every reliever they had was getting knocked around.  I recall a young Billy Koch was very much the same, never having relieved in the minors and instantly being a closer after arriving to the big leagues.  I'd say the chances of it happening are about 10% at most and that's why I'm projecting a few saves for Francis, which will disappear before Opening Day if his spot in the rotation becomes even more solid than it already is.  There's no closer here at all.  Take my note about the Texas closing situation as it relates to the ballpark and multiply the emphasis by two.  With the exception of Francis, because of what this park does to statistical performance, there's no pitcher worth owning here and Francis is almost certainly headed to the rotation.

Los Angeles:  Eric Gagne's never been hurt for any extended period of time since becoming the closer so there's no way to know for sure who would get the first nod but my bet would be on an unexpected choice if Gagne were out for a while, someone like an Edwin Jackson or Wilson Alvarez.  Darren Dreifort has the most clear closer-like stuff when he's healthy but his chances of getting hurt are about four times that of Gagne's.

San Diego:  Trevor Hoffman will now be backed up by a questionable combination of Dennys Reyes, Ryan Bukvich and Darrell May, among others.  If that sounds like the backup corps from the 2004 Kansas City Royal bullpen, that's because it is.  I'm not prepared to recommend any reliever in this bullpen for saves, other than Hoffman.

Editorial Note revision made on February 4, 2005 - A reader in our discussion forum who uses the alias LSosa54 correctly pointed out to me that I had not mentioned the seemingly obvious Akinori Otskua here.  Absolutely, Otsuka is the primary backup closer and in my focusing on how the Padres had semi-reconstructed the Kansas City bullpen, I neglected to mention Otsuka, who would easily get a first shot to close out games if Hoffman went down.  I said that I wasn't prepared to recommend any reliever in this bullpen but Otsuka is a notable exception and is certainly worth owning.

San Francisco:  The Giants went out and paid for Armando Benitez because they knew there wasn't anyone here ready to close to the level they wanted and with most of their 2004 options gone, that again puts someone like Matt Herges and his 23 saves (that went with a 5.23 ERA) in 2004 as a backup closer if Benitez went down with an extended injury.