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The Scheduled Advantage
by David Luciani
Published February 9, 2005

I published the first version of this essay many years ago and it was one of the most popular essays of its time in our early Internet days.  As I've had many readers over the past few years ask if I could re-publish it, I finally discovered an old hard copy and had it re-typed to appear here today, with some updates to make the names relevant today.  I think both readers who remember these ideas and readers who haven't seen them before will put these strategies to good use.  I've updated a few of the names to be in the context of modern times but essentially, this essay contains old ideas that I haven't mentioned in detail for quite a while.


One of the common questions that fills letters asking for fantasy help is related to how to use the schedule to get an advantage.  Especially as the season starts, it seems that most readers are aware of a few of the tricks to squeezing out much extra from your team, and it does make a huge difference, but most readers don't really have an organized list of all the elements they should be looking for.

Therefore, let me review some of the most significant weekly factors that you must consider if you are to take advantage of the Major League schedule.  I know there are others but these are the key ones and even the most advanced readers might be surprised to find one or two here that they hadn't really thought about or applied in the past.

Firstly, readers have likely noticed that on many websites and in publications you can find a list of pitchers who are going to get two starts in the upcoming week (Baseball Weekly, for example, published this in each issue for quite a few years). Whether you're a beginner or a fantasy veteran, you need to understand exactly how to take advantage of these weekly effects, especially if you're to have any realistic chance of winning in national competitions against thousands of other players.

There are five main factors you need to consider when you're planning who is on your active roster as opposed to your bench or taxi squad. They are:

1. A starting pitcher who will start twice in the upcoming week: This is the one that most advanced fantasy players already know about and have been using for the past several years. The idea is simple: If a pitcher is going to start twice in the upcoming week, you not only get an increased potential number of wins but also more strikeouts, in leagues that use that category. One strategic way of using this factor is to allow only your best pitchers to start twice for you and to always bench the mediocre pitcher on your roster who's going to get two starts. This way, your ace starts for you more often, thus lowering your team ERA and WHIP with 10-15 innings while your mediocre starters get as few innings as possible, while still making some contribution.  It's as if he becomes your "fifth starter" who is often skipped over in the rotation.  What's great about the "double start" rule is that, depending on how you use it, it can mean an extra 10 or 20 wins over a full season, regardless of the quality of your fantasy pitching staff.  My first victory in an online challenge came back in 1991.  In those days, modems were the norm, no one was using the Internet for fantasy baseball and an online challenge meant that you had to call a special local number to call in to a bulletin board, such as CompuServe offered.  That year, using little more than the double start rule saw me get about 35 extra wins over the second place team simply because no one in those days was yet taking advantage of this.  Now, if you don't do it and it's possible to do in your league, you have no chance in most leagues of more than 10-12 teams.

2. The weekly park effect: Let's say you have Roy Oswalt on your team but he's scheduled to start only one game in the upcoming week ... in Colorado. Now, you might argue that Oswalt will not have any problem with the thin air so you plan to start him anyway. At minimum, the park must factor into your decision of whether to leave him on your active roster. Even better is when you get Barry Bonds or Albert Pujols scheduled to play four games at Coors Field and the other three games in Arizona.

Conversely, the reverse park effect comes into play when you have these same sluggers scheduled to play their games at Florida and San Diego, not traditionally home run havens for hitters. In the case of pitchers, a great pitching park can make a third starter look like an ace and vice versa.

3. The opposition factor: This is one a lot of people haven't latched onto yet but it's crucial to understand.  I first wrote about this in 1992 and I see several other columnists also now widely advocate its use and I'm sure about a thousand writers and fantasy baseball champions independently invented it simultaneously as it's not rocket science.  As it continues to be more known, your opponents will be using it so you better be a step ahead.  In the short run, your players are going to face opposition that makes them look better or worse than they actually are. You might have a 20-HR type on your reserves, but he's going to be facing three starters in the upcoming week that have just been called up from Triple-A. On your active roster you have a left-handed hitting 30-HR guy but he's slated to face three tough lefties in Glavine, Randy Johnson and Al Leiter in the upcoming week. Perhaps you should bench this left-handed hitter in favor of the normally inferior hitter who has advantageous opposition.

This approach works especially well for pitchers. Sometimes your middle-of-the-road starter is scheduled to face the Kansas City Royals and Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the same week. An otherwise ordinary roster filler on your bench is up against a team that, thanks to injuries, is using four hitters that were at Triple-A two weeks ago. A switch might be in order.

The opposition factor especially comes into play when forecasting a pitcher's wins and saves for the upcoming week. You may love your second-best pitcher but what if he has two starts against Pedro Martinez this week? Do you want to keep him active and if so, what are his chances of picking up a win for you? If your closer is on a team that's playing against the Yankees and Red Sox this week, how many saves is he likely to get?

4. The catching factor:  I've been writing about this now for many years and for whatever reason, this one still hasn't caught on as widely as it should.  It made a huge difference for me when I first thought of it back in the early 1990s (and I'm sure someone else must have thought if it before I did as it seems obvious).  In fact, this strategy outright won the stolen bases category for me in a league where I did not have a single 30-steal type on my roster.  An area where people fail to use the opposition factor properly is the issue of the catcher. A player who normally steals 40 bases a year and gets caught 10 times looks like a 13-stolen base guy (really!) when he's running against Ivan Rodriguez, partially because he won't try to steal as often and mostly because Rodriguez has a cannon for an arm. If this player is on your roster primarily because of his base stealing ability, and he's scheduled to play four games against the Tigers this week, you may want to consider Pudge's presence before keeping him active. The flip side of this is that a 20-stolen base type can look like a 30-stolen base player if a weak-throwing catcher, such as Mike Piazza is behind the plate. You need to factor these opposing catchers into the equation if you're to accurately project stolen bases and believe me, this is crucial because it allows you to bench your otherwise weak-power guys when they're not going to contribute anything to your team.  Just to show you how effective this is, I had several players during the mid-1990s who stole 40 bases for my fantasy team while getting under 400 at bats.  These are guys who went on to steal around 50 bases in 600 at bats.  Using the catcher rule has allowed me to focus the use of these guys and then farm them out in favor of the power hitters in weeks I know they won't be running.  While some in baseball argue that "speed never slumps," success on the bases does drop when a catcher with a cannon is behind the plate.

5. The Number of Games: Everyone knows this one these days and if you don't, you need to know.  Your 50-HR type might have five games scheduled in the upcoming week where another player on your bench has eight games to play, thanks to a tight schedule and a makeup doubleheader. While there's no guarantee of how many of these games your player will actually appear in, which one would you rather have active? Because most scoring categories are totals, you want to get as much playing time for as many players as possible. Don't ignore the schedule if you're going to have any hope of amassing huge overall totals.

One good way to use all these factors is to sit down with whatever forecasts you prefer to use for your players and attempt to adjust them to the competition and schedule that these players face in the upcoming week. With some effort, you'll find yourself able to make a weekly forecast that tailors your active roster to the tremendous advantages weekly schedules afford a serious fantasy player. With a little luck and a long run approach, every one of your players will spend their "active season" accumulating stats for you in a favorable environment.  When you do this right, every one of your hitters can be playing most of their season in a good hitter's park, when active, and every pitcher in a great pitcher's park and against weaker opposition.  I can assure you that if your plan is to actually win a national or deep 25-team online fantasy competition, you'll have to be considering these factors every week.  If you've ever wondered why you lose to teams that seem inferior to your roster, these may be the reason why.  Make 2005 a year to get some scheduled revenge...

 

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