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The Scheduled
Advantage
by David Luciani
Published February 9, 2005
I published the first version of this essay many years ago and
it was one of the most popular essays of its time in our early Internet days. As I've had
many readers over the past few years ask if I could re-publish it, I finally
discovered an old hard copy and had it re-typed to appear here today, with
some updates to make the names relevant today. I think both readers
who remember these ideas and readers
who haven't seen them before will put these strategies to good use. I've
updated a few of the names to be in the context of modern times but essentially,
this essay contains old ideas that I haven't mentioned in detail for quite a
while.
One of the common questions that
fills letters asking for fantasy help is related to how to use the
schedule to get an advantage. Especially as the season starts, it
seems that most readers are aware of a few of the tricks to squeezing out
much extra from your team, and it does make a huge difference, but most
readers don't really have an organized list of all the elements they
should be looking for.
Therefore, let me review some of
the most significant weekly factors that you must consider if you are to
take advantage of the Major League schedule. I know there are others
but these are the key ones and even the most advanced readers might be
surprised to find one or two here that they hadn't really thought about or
applied in the past.
Firstly, readers have likely
noticed that on many websites and in publications you can find a list of
pitchers who are going to get two starts in the upcoming week (Baseball
Weekly, for example, published this in each issue for quite a few years).
Whether you're a beginner or a fantasy veteran, you need to understand
exactly how to take advantage of these weekly effects, especially if
you're to have any realistic chance of winning in national competitions
against thousands of other players.
There are five main factors you
need to consider when you're planning who is on your active roster as
opposed to your bench or taxi squad. They are:
1. A starting pitcher who will
start twice in the upcoming week: This is the one that most advanced
fantasy players already know about and have been using for the past
several years. The idea is simple: If a pitcher is going to start twice in
the upcoming week, you not only get an increased potential number of wins
but also more strikeouts, in leagues that use that category. One strategic
way of using this factor is to allow only your best pitchers to start
twice for you and to always bench the mediocre pitcher on your roster
who's going to get two starts. This way, your ace starts for you more
often, thus lowering your team ERA and WHIP with 10-15 innings while your
mediocre starters get as few innings as possible, while still making some
contribution. It's as if he becomes your "fifth starter"
who is often skipped over in the rotation. What's great about the
"double start" rule is that, depending on how you use it, it can
mean an extra 10 or 20 wins over a full season, regardless of the quality
of your fantasy pitching staff. My first victory in an online
challenge came back in 1991. In those days, modems were the norm, no
one was using the Internet for fantasy baseball and an online challenge
meant that you had to call a special local number to call in to a bulletin
board, such as CompuServe offered. That year, using little more than the
double start rule saw me get about 35 extra wins over the second place
team simply because no one in those days was yet taking advantage of
this. Now, if you don't do it and it's possible to do in your
league, you have no chance in most leagues of more than 10-12 teams.
2. The weekly park effect:
Let's say you have Roy Oswalt on your team but he's scheduled to start
only one game in the upcoming week ... in Colorado. Now, you might argue
that Oswalt will not have any problem with the thin air so you plan to
start him anyway. At minimum, the park must factor into your decision of
whether to leave him on your active roster. Even better is when you get
Barry Bonds or Albert Pujols scheduled to play four games at Coors Field and
the other three games in Arizona.
Conversely, the reverse park
effect comes into play when you have these same sluggers scheduled to play
their games at Florida and San Diego, not traditionally home run havens
for hitters. In the case of pitchers, a great pitching park can make a
third starter look like an ace and vice versa.
3. The opposition factor:
This is one a lot of people haven't latched onto yet but it's crucial to
understand. I first wrote about this in 1992 and I see several other
columnists also now widely advocate its use and I'm sure about a thousand
writers and fantasy baseball champions independently invented it
simultaneously as it's not rocket science. As it continues to be
more known, your opponents will be using it so you better be a step
ahead. In the short run, your players are going to face opposition
that makes them look better or worse than they actually are. You might
have a 20-HR type on your reserves, but he's going to be facing three
starters in the upcoming week that have just been called up from Triple-A.
On your active roster you have a left-handed hitting 30-HR guy but he's
slated to face three tough lefties in Glavine, Randy Johnson and Al Leiter
in the upcoming week. Perhaps you should bench this left-handed hitter in
favor of the normally inferior hitter who has advantageous opposition.
This approach works especially
well for pitchers. Sometimes your middle-of-the-road starter is scheduled
to face the Kansas City Royals and Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the same week. An
otherwise ordinary roster filler on your bench is up against a team that,
thanks to injuries, is using four hitters that were at Triple-A two weeks
ago. A switch might be in order.
The opposition factor especially
comes into play when forecasting a pitcher's wins and saves for the
upcoming week. You may love your second-best pitcher but what if he has
two starts against Pedro Martinez this week? Do you want to keep him
active and if so, what are his chances of picking up a win for you? If
your closer is on a team that's playing against the Yankees and Red Sox this week,
how many saves is he likely to get?
4. The catching factor:
I've been writing about this now for many years and for whatever
reason, this one still hasn't caught on as widely as it should. It made a huge difference
for me when I
first thought of it back in the early 1990s (and I'm sure someone else
must have thought if it before I did as it seems obvious). In fact,
this strategy outright won the stolen bases
category for me in a league where I did not have a single 30-steal type on my
roster. An area where people fail to use the opposition factor
properly is the issue of the catcher. A player who normally steals 40
bases a year and gets caught 10 times looks like a 13-stolen base guy
(really!) when he's running against Ivan Rodriguez, partially because he
won't try to steal as often and mostly because Rodriguez has a cannon for
an arm. If this player is on your roster primarily because of his base
stealing ability, and he's scheduled to play four games against the Tigers
this week, you may want to consider Pudge's presence before
keeping him active. The flip side of this is that a 20-stolen base type
can look like a 30-stolen base player if a weak-throwing catcher, such as
Mike Piazza is behind the plate. You need to factor these opposing
catchers into the equation if you're to accurately project stolen bases
and believe me, this is crucial because it allows you to bench your
otherwise weak-power guys when they're not going to contribute anything to
your team. Just to show you how effective this is, I had several
players during the mid-1990s who stole 40 bases for my fantasy team
while getting under 400 at bats. These are guys who went on to steal
around 50 bases in 600 at bats. Using the catcher rule has allowed
me to focus the use of these guys and then farm them out in favor of the
power hitters in weeks I know they won't be running. While some in
baseball argue that "speed never slumps," success on the bases
does drop when a catcher with a cannon is behind the plate.
5. The Number of Games:
Everyone knows this one these days and if you don't, you need to
know. Your 50-HR type might have five games scheduled in the
upcoming week where another player on your bench has eight games to play,
thanks to a tight schedule and a makeup doubleheader. While there's no
guarantee of how many of these games your player will actually appear in,
which one would you rather have active? Because most scoring categories
are totals, you want to get as much playing time for as many players as
possible. Don't ignore the schedule if you're going to have any hope of
amassing huge overall totals.
One good way to use all these
factors is to sit down with whatever forecasts you prefer to use for your
players and attempt to adjust them to the competition and schedule that
these players face in the upcoming week. With some effort, you'll find
yourself able to make a weekly forecast that tailors your active roster to
the tremendous advantages weekly schedules afford a serious fantasy
player. With a little luck and a long run approach, every one of your
players will spend their "active season" accumulating stats for
you in a favorable environment. When you do this right, every one of
your hitters can be playing most of their season in a good hitter's park,
when active, and every pitcher in a great pitcher's park and against
weaker opposition. I can assure you that if your plan is to actually
win a national or deep 25-team online fantasy competition, you'll have to be considering these
factors every week. If you've ever wondered why you lose to teams
that seem inferior to your roster, these may be the reason why. Make
2005 a year to get some scheduled revenge...
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