The Potential Free Agent System
by David Luciani
Published February 19, 2002

I first wrote this column two years ago and it was published both in this space and by Major League Baseball.  Several veteran readers have written asking me to re-publish this essay and so, as requested, here is the essay on "The Potential Free Agent" system.  The numbers remain from a few years ago and in a few days, this essay will likely find its way to the archives, where it should have already been.  I have not created a new analysis with 2001 data but the focus of the article remains true and republishing this is in response to the surprisingly overwhelming request for its reissue:

(First published April 6, 2000)

A reader recently wrote to tell me that he is drafting Alex Rodriguez because he is a potential free agent at the end of the 2000 season. The reasoning, as the reader explained, was that "everyone knows" a player plays better in the final year of his contract, allegedly because he is playing for a new contract.

While drafting A-Rod in any fantasy league obviously is sound strategy, the reader is going to do the right thing for the wrong reason. Before we unlock the secrets of baseball future with what I will call the "Potential Free Agent" system, I want to demonstrate to readers just how flawed the system is, especially as the new season is just underway and some latecomers are still building or finalizing their fantasy rosters.

This belief about potential free agents continues to increase in popularity, partially because word of mouth sustains it and mostly because there will always be players who have career years in the final season of their contract. It does make for interesting conversation, but it isn't built on a solid foundation.

In hindsight, we always notice the players who had great seasons going into the final year of their contract but no one mentions the players who failed to do just that. Take any randomly selected group of a hundred or more players and count how many of them had career years. If you want to believe the system works, you simply focus on the handful of players who did enjoy their best season just as their contract ran out.

The following is a comparison of how players performed who were potential free agents at the end of the 1999 season. Let's look at what these players did in 1998 compared to what they did in 1999, their final year before free agency. I have excluded any player who retired at the end of the 1999 season so we can truly see whether the "playing for a new contract" theory holds water. The totals are adjusted to 600 plate appearances for hitters and 200 innings for pitchers to give you a good look at the change in a typical full-time player:

In fact, the 1999 numbers should have been better because of the jump in Major League home runs from 1998 to 1999. STATS Inc. reports that in 1998 there were a total of 5,064 home runs in 1998 and 5,528 home runs in 1999 and both years had almost exactly the same number of games played. Were we to adjust the numbers above for the annual context, the two batting lines become even more similar.

Let's check out the pitchers:

The increases are completely in line with the overall actual increase in run scoring from 1998 to 1999. These two pitching lines are the same performances and both the hitting and pitching comparisons seem to debunk the so-called "potential free agent" system.

So if you're drafting A-Rod, draft him because he's one of the most valuable players in fantasy baseball, not because he has the right to seek a new contract after the season.