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David Luciani
Top Prospects Pre-2009: The Pitchers
March 11, 2009
I already explained in part
one of this series about how to read a list such as ours and so I will not
repeat what was said there. If you missed part one, you may take interest
in the opening notes of part one if not the list itself.
There are still two items I need to explain here re: the
pitchers. First, is the criteria for a player to qualify for
consideration. Though we've expanded the criteria from previous years
slightly, a pitcher still needs to have 40+ translated innings from full-season
Single-A to Triple-A in 2008 to qualify for this list. So, a pitcher like
Brian Matusz of Baltimore doesn't qualify for consideration and has not
accidentally been omitted. Chris Perez doesn't qualify either
(actually pitched only 25.1 innings in the minors last year). Like with
the hitters, a player also needs to have rookie qualification still, meaning he
needs 50 or fewer innings pitched. So, a pitcher like Clayton Kershaw no
longer qualifies. I've always been surprised that innings are used for
rookie qualification. If a disastrous pitcher were to go out and walk
everyone and/or give up a few thousand hits over five or ten years, he'd still
have rookie qualification until he recorded enough outs to get 50 innings.
In any case, they are baseball's qualification rules so we're using them here
too.
There's a second aspect to this list that's a bit
different. I'm going to say something up front that I don't recall saying
before when it comes to pitchers but probably should have: Likely
a third of the top-twenty five pitchers will not pan out.
It's difficult to admit something like that but it's the truth. All of my
reviews of old lists, not just mine but others as well, leads me to believe that
about a third of pitching prospects simply don't achieve their potential, often
because they get injured and just as often because they fail to make the
adjustments necessary to compete at a high level. Pitchers are in a
constant battle of declining potential velocity almost from the moment they
arrive in the majors and where strikeout ability can go up when a pitcher
gains new skills, there is a constant effect of age tugging at his pure speed
where unlike power for hitters, which rises as a player reaches his physical
prime, the line for pitching velocity is almost essentially a straight line down
from the moment a pitcher makes it to the majors with only rare
exceptions. It doesn't mean he won't succeed. It just means that it
comes down to a pitcher's ability to adjust to this and a decent percentage of
pitchers, no matter their ceiling, never will.
One last note here - A lot of readers aren't going to be happy
that near-unanimously ranked top prospect David Price is listed in the "you
also need to know about this player" second list rather than the top
twenty-five. This wasn't an easy decision but as I said in the
introduction to the hitting piece, we're trying to project the future here using
a model that has served us well and everyone knows about Price anyway. We
want you to know about these other twenty-five who lit up our long-term model
arguably more than Price did, surprisingly. Contrary to popular belief, a
player's rank here isn't a competition and if you don't already know about
Price, well then you're not following the game closely.
Like the hitting piece, starting in May we will revisit this
list on a regular basis with new dynamic rankings and we expect the pitching one
will move a lot more than the hitting one.
Top Twenty-Five Pitching Prospects
1. Michael Bowden, Boston: He actually got a taste of the
majors last year but is likely to spend most of this season in the minors
again. Last year, he was outstanding between three levels, pitching 149.1
innings and allowing just 119 hits and 30 walks while striking out 133 with a
combined ERA of 2.65 between Double-A, Triple-A and the majors. He's close
to being ready and will likely be a solid big leaguer by 2011. He's being
ranked a lot lower by other publications but we think he has an outstanding
future ahead of him.
2. David Huff, Cleveland: A lefty, he has the potential
to end up as a situational reliever with only limited value rather than as a
starter - he seems better suited for the latter. He advanced all the way
from Rookie League ball at the end of 2007 to finish at Triple-A Buffalo in
2008, where he went 6-4 with a 3.01 ERA in 16 starts, striking out 81 in 80.2
innings. Even though he's a little older than you might hope from a top
prospect (he turns twenty-five in August), we'll be surprised if he moves up
before one more full season in the minors but then he should have a good career
after that, even if he's missing those first few years of totals that other
rushed pitchers pick up. You still absolutely need to know about him even
if he arrives a bit late.
3. Trevor Cahill, Oakland: A dominant rising pitcher who
made it to Double-A last year, he combined to go 11-5 with a 2.61 ERA between
Single-A and Double-A last year in 124.1 innings. Over that span, he
allowed only 76 hits while striking out 136. The biggest blemish on his
season was 50 walks but most of the time, he's wild low in the zone, allowing
just 5 home runs on the season. A second round pick in 2006, he projects
as another excellent pitcher produced by the Oakland system.
4. Matthew Maloney, Cincinnati: Like Huff above, he's one
of the older prospects we're ranking here (twenty-five years old) and also a
lefty but with one more solid minor league season, we project him to have quite
a big league career after that when he does eventually break through. His
minor league career shows plenty of strikeouts, including 132 in 140.1 innings
last year at Triple-A Louisville and usually, better than a strikeout per inning
prior to 2008. A strained oblique ended his chance of breaking through to
the majors at the end of last year and we're already contemplating adding him to
our current forecasts for 2009.
5. James McDonald, Los Angeles Dodgers: Though we don't
project instant success, he is going to appear in the majors this year at some
point and will challenge to be one of the first pitchers turned to when one of
the Opening Day starting rotation crew goes down with an injury. McDonald
actually appeared with the Dodgers last year and was unscored upon in 6 innings
over 4 games. In his minor league career, he's always averaged about a
strikeout per inning. He projects to be a member of the rotation by 2010
or 2011.
6. Tommy Hanson, Atlanta: This is one name on everyone's
list, including ours. Hanson, who's appearing near the top of most lists,
just destroyed Single-A batters last year, going 3-1 with a 0.90 ERA in 40
innings. Over that span, he allowed an absolutely incredible 15
hits (yes, you read that right), no home runs, walked 11 and struck out
49. He's going to move up rapidly though he may still be a year or two
away.
7. Gio Gonzalez, Oakland: He's not as highly regarded by
many because he's had problems with his control but his stuff projects very well
under our model. Part of the trade that sent Nick Swisher to the White Sox
before the 2008 season, he was moved to the bullpen late last year. He's
that rarest of pitcher who ranks high here without actually coming off a good
year in the minors (and he got knocked around in 34 innings with Oakland when he
was definitely not ready to be in the majors yet). He's going to be
a much better pitcher than 2008 would have you believe.
8. Wil Inman, San Diego: He's already about to pitch at
Triple-A, if not the majors, and is still only twenty-two so there's plenty of
development opportunity left here. We expect the Padres will be patient
with him, as they should be, but his minor league numbers have been so
impressive that he may get the quick move up within a year or two. Last
year, at Double-A San Antonio, he went 9-8 with a 3.52 ERA in 28 starts,
striking out 140 batters in 135.1 innings.
9. Neftali Feliz, Texas: We're always wary of
recommending Texas Rangers prospects not because of the home park but because so
few of them have panned out in recent years. Feliz is moving up fast, not
having pitched above low-A ball before 2008 and he is now apparently headed for
Triple-A already. He may very well finally be the starter that the Rangers
can really build a team around.
10. David Hernandez, Baltimore: He was tops in the
Double-A Eastern League in strikeouts in 2008, picking up 166 in just 141
innings while allowing only 112 hits. Like many pitchers with his
combination of stuff and inexperience, his control isn't there yet and that's
the only thing holding him back from his breakthrough.
11. Brett Anderson, Oakland: Oakland is apparently
going to be patient with him but it's hard to resist giving him an earlier look
than necessary, this as he he's already pitched at Double-A ball some even
before he turned twenty-one. He's averaged better than a strikeout per
inning at every stop so far and his presence here along with Trevor Cahill and
Gio Gonzalez above gives the A's an interesting trifecta much like our post-2003
list, which had Rich Harden, Justin Duchscherer and Joe Blanton all in the
top fifteen for Oakland that year. The A's have quite a next generation
rotation developing here.
12. Carlos Rosa, Kansas City: With a big league fastball
that peaks in the high 90s, Rosa actually got a taste of the majors last year
but likely needs at least another year or two of minor league seasoning.
He had a 4.09 ERA in the Triple-A portion of his 2008 season, this in sharp
contrast to the sparkling 1.20 ERA he had posted in 45 innings at Double-A
Northwest Arkansas. He's had some injury problems too that have held his
development back slightly.
13. Jess Todd, St. Louis: He looks poised to make his
debut at some point this season and is close to being ready, this as he has
risen all the way from Single-A a year ago.
14. Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay: Ask anyone who the top
pitching prospect is in the Tampa Bay organization and they will understandably
say David Price but Hellickson is also one to remember. He's a year and a
half younger than Price and thus behind his schedule but he has dominant stuff
and remarkably good control considering both his stuff and that he started last
year just at Single-A.
15. David Robertson, New York Yankees: He doesn't throw
as hard as some of the others on this list but he's already made it to the
majors and we project he's not only ready but could immediately put up pretty
stellar numbers - our 2009 forecast is for a 3.28 ERA in 31 innings. The
biggest draw on him is that unlike just about every other name ranked above him,
he's virtually certain to end up as a reliever in the long run and so for him to
achieve peak potential value, he needs to supplant Mariano Rivera as the main
man out of the bullpen. The latter is what we're forecasting and we
believe that within five years, Robertson will be someone's closer and a good
one at that.
16. James Happ, Philadelphia: One of the oldest names
we're going to put on this list (he's twenty-six), he's on the verge of a
rotation spot and we believe he needs maybe one or two more years before he can
establish himself as a solid big league pitcher. A lefty who is much
better suited for relief than starting, that's the role we'd like to see him end
up in which may limit his value for those who care about fantasy stats like wins
or saves.
17. Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco: Check out these
minor league totals: A 15-3 record, 141.2 innings, 111 hits allowed, only 3 home
runs given up, 21 walks, 164 strikeouts... Oh, and these are Single-A totals for
a player who just turned nineteen last August. He's doing everything and
more to justify his first round selection in 2007.
18. Wade LeBlanc, San Diego: He made it to the majors
last year but got blasted around in 5 games, 4 of them starts. His
Triple-A season wasn't that good either (5.32 ERA in 138.2 innings) but our
reading of this was that he needed significantly more time at Double-A, this as
he was coming off a 3.45 ERA at that level in 2007 and had pitched fewer than 60
innings in his career above Single-A ball before 2008. Even with the
struggles last year, he continued to strike everyone out and still has good
control, largely because his strikeouts aren't the result of pure hard stuff as
much as finesse. Despite last year, he still projects quite nicely for the
long-term.
19. Daryl Thompson, Cincinnati: He didn't do well in his
brief chance with the Reds but consider that he hadn't pitched above Single-A
ball a year ago and you get the idea that he's been moved along on an aggressive
schedule because of the big league team's urgent needs. He's had a sore
shoulder during spring training so that could be a concern but he was quite good
at both Double-A and Triple-A last year, the latter of which is likely to be his
most frequent stop in 2009. We think he needs one or two more years in the
minors before he can be a contributor.
20. Antonio Bastardo, Philadelphia: Further from the
majors than some of the others on this list, he's not yet pitched higher than
Double-A ball, where last year he went 2-5 with a 3.76 ERA in 14 starts after
mowing down Single-A hitters. A lefty, he looks to be about three or four
years away still.
21. Brett Cecil, Toronto: Cecil could get forced to the
majors because of a severely reduced set of starting candidates compared to
where Toronto was a year ago. A lefty, he has quite limited experience
even at Triple-A, having only pitched there for 6 starts in 2008 (2-3, 4.11
ERA). He spent most of 2008 at Double-A New Hampshire (6-2, 2.55 ERA, 77.2
IP, 23 BB, 87 K) and it would be nice for his development to get maybe another
half season in the minors. Still, we actually think he's close to being
ready, at least enough to hold his own in the majors and he's a candidate to
become a solid #2 or #3 type pitcher by 2011.
22. Jeremy Jeffress, Milwaukee: He's battled substance
abuse problems and it's set him back some but when he's been active, his stuff
has been sharp even though it hasn't yet translated to superb minor league ERAs.
He pitched poorly in the brief portion of 2008 he played at Double-A Huntsville,
largely because of control problems, but even with a 4.08 ERA at Single-A
Brevard County, he did strike out 102 batters in just 79.1 innings and allowed
only 5 home runs. His ERA should have rightfully been better than it was
and he still projects well even with the missed time and unfortunate 2008
results.
23. Chris Tillman, Baltimore: Part of the deal that sent
Erik Bedard to Seattle, Tillman was quite sharp at Double-A Bowie last year,
going 11-4 with a 3.18 ERA with 135.2 innings pitched, only 115 hits allowed, 65
walks and with 154 strikeouts. Those numbers are worth taking a second
look at when you realize that Tillman won't even turn twenty-one until mid-April
of this year.
24. Scott Mitchinson, Oakland: What the Milwaukee Brewers
are to our hitting list, Oakland is to the pitching list as they've got so many
good developing arms in their organization and Mitchinson is another.
Formerly with Philadelphia and at least once (back in 2005) on a lot of top
prospect lists, Mitchinson has generally eaten up minor league hitters but
hasn't yet moved above high-A ball. Last year, his combined results
between Kane County and Stockton gave us a 6-3 record, 88.1 innings, 65 hits
allowed, 12 walks and 87 strikeouts with an ERA of 1.73. His control is
among the best of any prospect we've ranked in recent years and to put it in
perspective, in his pro debut season of 2004 with the Phillies' Gulf Coast
League team, he pitched 61.2 innings and allowed just 1 - yes that's one -
walk while striking out 60. He is good enough to pitch at Double-A at this
point.
25. Hector Rondon, Cleveland: A long way from the majors
still, he only recently turned twenty-one and really needs at least another
half-season at the Single-A level. He projects as quite a control pitcher
for the long run.
Others You Absolutely Need to Know About
Nick Adenhart, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Tim Alderson, San Francisco
Jake Arrieta, Baltimore
Phillipe Aumont, Seattle
Daniel Bard, Boston
Carlos Carrasco, Philadelphia
Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado
Daniel Cortes, Kansas City
Wade Davis, Tampa Bay
Jaime Garcia, St. Louis
Derek Holland, Texas
Jacob McGee, Tampa Bay
Jon Niese, New York Mets
Jarrod Parker, Arizona
Aaron Poreda, Chicago White Sox
Rick Porcello, Detroit
David Price, Tampa Bay
Jeff Samardzija, Chicago Cubs
Jordan Walden, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Jordan Zimmerman, Washington
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