ON TARGET 2008: CLOSING THE GAP
published March 19, 2008
by Josh Parks

THE REARVIEW MIRROR

Welcome back to the fifth installment of my annual "On Target" series, in which I try to guide Baseball Notebook readers through some of the biggest gaps between the projected values they find on BN's ranking sheets and the perceived values they encounter out in the real world.  If you have never read an "On Target" article before, I recommend taking a peak at the first one, "On Target: Draft Preparation and the Ranking Sheets" which was published back in 2004. While I have a history of tweaking my methods a bit each year, the basic concept behind identifying target players is laid out more fully there.

Before getting into this year's names I thought it would be interesting to offer a brief look back at last year's, along with a not-necessarily-objective assessment of my advice.

Here's a look at the pitchers from the first group of last year's names, their BN projection as of late March 2007, and their actual eventual results:

Of these names, Hensley and Harden were clearly busts, Harden due to injury and Hensley because of both injury and him simply not pitching up to expectations when he was healthy.  Of the rest, I expect most readers would have been happiest if they'd been able to take Lowe and Hill right around the 14th or 15th rounds in a 12-team league, as I advised. Chuck James came very close to his forecast in three categories, but went the wrong direction a little bit in ERA and WHIP. Pettitte's forecast also panned out for the most part, marred primarily by his WHIP, the second year in a row he's finished over 1.40.

Two out of the four hitters I mentioned among my first group came up short, arguably also because of injuries. Lyle Overbay, who missed almost all of June, and Chad Tracy, who missed time in August and September before electing to have knee surgery, both fell short of expectations. Of the other two names, Crisp I would say was an OK pick somewhere between the 14th and 16th rounds (of course, you would have been better off with Hill or Lowe). Although Encarnacion came up a bit short of his forecast, his results were not bad if you got him with a 19th or 20th round pick, which was my target for him last year. Here are the numbers on the batters:

Last year I also offered a group of ten names under the "quick hits" heading, i.e., names that were probably better known than the first group, but for whatever reason also seemed to be overlooked by the drafting population at large.  This second group was also slightly heavier on the pitching side, and featured names like Chris Young, John Smoltz, Ben Sheets, John Patterson, Kelvim Escobar, and Takashi Saito. Here's a look at their 2007 forecasts and actual results:

In this group, Sheets and especially Patterson were affected by injuries. I recommended waiting until the 16th on Patterson, but you would obviously have done better to ignore him completely. I advised waiting until the 7th for Sheets, which was a reasonable gamble given his ability weighed against his injury history, although I wouldn't say it paid off in this case.  As for Smoltz, Young, Saito, and Escobar, I think anyone would have been happy to draft performances like that in the 6th, 9th, 10th, and 15th rounds.

The hitters in the "quick hits" group were names like Hawpe, Gonzalez, Bradley (who was plagued by injuries all season), and Gomes, who was sent down ten days after last year's article appeared and didn't have a full time job until June. Gonzalez and Hawpe on the other hand clearly exceeded expectations, not to mention their perceived value as 9th and 17th rounders, respectively.

A rough-and-ready breakdown shows that of the 12 pitchers highlighted, on average they exceeded their forecast in 2.2 of the standard 5x5 categories. If you remove the 4 players who lost significant time to injury, that number jumps to 2.9. Surprise, surprise: injuries and playing time matter.

The 8 hitters mentioned exceeded their forecast on average in only 1.5 of the 5x5 categories. Leaving out the 4 injured players that number goes up to exactly what you might expect: 2.5.

What's noteworthy here is that half of the hitters were affected by injury, whereas one-third of the pitchers were. I would have expected those numbers to be reversed. I find it encouraging, however, that most of the players who tanked did so because of injury more than an apparent lack of ability.

BETWEEN THE LINES

In assessing the usefulness of this exercise it's tempting to look at the good on-field performances like Smoltz and Gonzalez and Saito and Hawpe and think that, with perfect hindsight, you would have been justified drafting them earlier than I recommended. However, that would go against what should be your overall drafting strategy, and what I think makes BN's overall approach valuable. Part of being disciplined is to take your draft one round at a time to try to make sure that with every pick you are not simply drafting the highest available forecast, but the highest forecast that you think won't last until your next pick.

Helping you accomplish that is really what the "On Target" approach is all about. So, for example, last year, when I got down toward the 9th or 10th round I had my eye on someone like Chris Young instead of Barry Zito, both of whom went in the 9th round in one of my leagues; or Takashi Saito instead of Tom Gordon, who both went in the 10th.

And for anyone wondering if I follow my own advice, two of my teams whose draft results I still have in front of me included Smoltz (taken in the 6th), Saito (in the 10th and the 14th), Young (12th), Pettitte (20th), Hawpe (15th and 22nd), Encarnacion (18th), Hill (13th), Tracy (16th), Hensley (19th), Lowe (21st), and Patterson (22nd). Granted, I dropped a few of these players along the way, but I finished first (for the third time in four years) in my non-keeper Roto league and 5th with my 4-keeper head-to-head team.

AND THE LAST SHALL BE FIRST?

Turning to the players of 2008, the first 10 names I'm going to mention are simply the 10 players with the biggest gap between their projected value and perceived value (as measured by my estimate of their average draft position). There are a number of players here who quite likely will be available later than I predict, and many whom you can grab with your very last pick.  All references to drafts assume a 12-team snake draft. All references to player forecasts are for the March 16 data set using the default mixed league settings for teams and players and 5x5 scoring categories.

Greg Maddux

Ah, Mad Dog. For some reason, I've rarely been happy owning Maddux. He seemed to find his way onto many of my early fantasy rosters, and even when he was very good, there was something vaguely unsatisfying to me about owning him. I virtually swore off him the past few years, but given that he is going undrafted in many leagues you have to give his forecast for 15 wins, a 3.56 ERA, and 1.18 WHIP over 191 innings at least a bit of consideration, which tabs him as a second rounder, believe it or not. Don't even think about grabbing him that early, however! Even if you think his projection is optimistic, I'd bet no other pitcher available as late as Maddux has as much chance of coming close to those numbers, so you could do worse, a lot worse, with your last pick.

Milton Bradley

The mercurial Ranger outfielder makes a return trip to the On Target list some might say in spite of, others because of, his showing in 2007, which featured several stints on the DL, three teams, and ultimately a torn ACL. When players go through seasons like that they fall off the radar, so it's no wonder Bradley is going undrafted in many leagues. His forecast is currently for .303-27-85-86-13, putting him in 5th round territory. That's over only 480 at-bats, however, which to my eye factors in his injury risk (he's only gone over 400 at-bats in two of his eight seasons). If Maddux is gone, Bradley is another name to consider with your last pick.

Austin Kearns

Another player who is not getting much love at draft time, Kearns is projected for 11th round value with low 20s homers, low 80s runs and RBIs, a few steals and a .273 average over 542 at-bats. Besides Maddux and Bradley, I'd guess Kearns is the most well-known player who will probably still be available with your last pick.

Josh Hamilton

A former #1 overall draft pick by the Devil Rays in 1999, Hamilton made his debut with the Reds in early April last year after a checkered minor league career, drug suspension, and stints in rehab. He's since been traded to Arlington, where the Texas outfielder's forecast is for 5th round value, with low 30s homers, mid 80s runs, low 90s RBIs, a handful of steals and a .295 average over about 490 at-bats. He's currently going on average right around the middle of the 16th, so don't be surprised if somebody takes a flier on him in the 14th or so, although he could last until the 18th, or conceivably even later.

Xavier Nady and Mike Jacobs

A few more options for your last pick, Nady is forecasted for 12th round value and Jacobs for 13th, and they both may very well be available with your last pick. Compared to other names Nady and Jacobs may not be that exciting, but they do have the 5th and 6th biggest gaps between forecasted value and perceived value.

Edwin Encarnacion

Another name from the 2007 list, Encarnacion only beat his forecast last year in batting average, but came reasonably close to his overall projected ability. His projected value for 2008 is almost the same as last year, while his perceived value has moved up slightly from 19th-20th round range to late 16th-early 18th round territory, which is when you should consider him.

Felipe Lopez

Last year Lopez had the lowest average of his career since he became a regular, while also suffering a significant drop in steals. Baseball Notebook is forecasting more of a return to .280-33 form in 2008 which helps put him in 10th round territory. I peg his average draft position as right around the early part of the 19th, so you may want him on your radar for as early as the 17th although he could fall to as late as the 21st round.  EDITORIAL NOTE: Lopez may be poised for a downgraded forecast late in spring training if he loses out on his battle for a regular spot in the lineup.

Bill Butler

Another batter with 10th round projected value, this first-round MLB pick from 2004 is lasting until essentially the same spot as Lopez. Keep both names in mind and if you're in the market for a corner infielder late in your draft, think about Butler. If you need a middle infielder, at least consider Lopez.

Willy Taveras

Rounding out the first 10 names, Taveras' projection for 47 steals helps land him in 8th round projected value range. On average he lasts until late in the 16th round. There's no player projected for more steals who is likely to be available this late, so if you're looking for stolen bases in the second half of your draft, Taveras is your guy.

HERE'S THE PITCH

For the second group of names I usually like to mention 10 players who strike me as interesting ideas, and I try to allow my definition of "interesting" to include other things besides just the spread between projected and perceived value.

This year I went strictly by the spread for the first 10, which resulted in only one pitcher in that group. I'd like to correct that in this second group by focusing on what I consider to be some of the more "interesting" pitching names.

John Smoltz

It's getting to the point where it's just not an "On Target" article if I don't talk about Smoltz. And no wonder. Smoltz once again has a high projected value, featuring 190 strikeouts, a 3.49 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, which puts him right on the bubble between the 1st and 2nd round. Also once again, he's not being drafted on average until early in the 7th. This has been going on for three years now. If I asked you of all major league pitchers who have thrown at least 450 innings over the last three years, who has the best ERA, would you put Smoltz in the top 10? And yet there he is, number seven, at 3.20, behind names like Santana, Carpenter, Oswalt, Peavy, Halladay, and Webb. How about strikeouts over the same period? Smoltz is fifth, behind Santana, Peavy, Harang, and Zambrano. How about innings? He's fifth again, behind Webb, Santana, Harang and Oswalt, and of that group he has the second best WHIP. The only names on all three lists? Santana and Smoltz. You get the idea.

Christopher R. Young

Even though his 2007 results were excellent, Young went out with a bit of whimper, and injury concerns seem to be weighing on his perceived value. He is slightly ahead of Smoltz in projected value, but he probably won't go before the 4th round in most leagues, with his average selection point being toward the back half of the 6th.

Ben Sheets

Speaking of injury concerns, there's even more reason to worry with a track record like Sheets. However, if he can stay healthy BN is projecting 3rd round value for him, with a nice 3.60-ish ERA and 1.20-ish WHIP over 175 innings. His midpoint is late in the 10th round. I would expect him to go somewhere between the 8th and the 12th in most leagues.

Ryan Zimmerman

The lone batter in this second group, Zimmerman is going into his third year as a regular and BN is expecting him to get noticed, with the fifth highest projected value among third basemen. That's good for 2nd round value, but you should wait until at least the 6th and perhaps more like the 7th or 8th to pick him up.

Javier Vazquez

If you're using the ranking sheets you'll probably notice Vazquez's projection right around the 3rd round. After posting his first sub-4.00 ERA in three years in 2007, BN is projecting about 0.93 K/9 over 200+ innings. With an average selection point late in the 9th round, I wouldn't look to take him until the 8th at the earliest.

Cole Hamels

If you're looking for some pitching value early on in your draft, Hamels is as good a name as any. He currently has 2nd round projected value with over 200 strikeouts, a 3.80-ish ERA, and 1.18 WHIP over 190 or so innings. There's no need to tip your hand, however, so you can wait until the 4th or 5th to grab him.

A.J. Burnett

Burnett should catch your eye somewhere in the 5th round with his projection for 0.96 K/9 over 190+ innings, a 4.00-ish ERA and 1.26 WHIP. You can wait until very late in the first half of your draft to early in the second half, right around the 12th round, to take him.

Rich Harden

After logging only 72 1/3 innings over the past two years, Harden is projected for 124 innings in 2008, but a 3.18 ERA and 1.22 WHIP push him into 9th round territory value-wise. Nevertheless, you'd be wise to hedge your bets and wait until at least the early part of the 16th to take a chance on him.

Phil Hughes

Slightly ahead of Harden in terms of both projected and perceived value, Hughes has decent forecasts for ERA and WHIP but over only 136 innings. Look for him to go toward the end of the 13th.

Jered Weaver

While not expecting Weaver to return to his debut form of 2006, BN is still looking for improvement to the tune of 144 strikeouts, 3.9-ish ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP over 175 or so innings. That's good enough for 6th round projected value, but he's an even nicer pickup if you can wait until about the 12th or 13th round.

HAPPY HUNTING

As always, don't expect or even try to land all of these names. Let your lineup, your knowledge about your league, and the flow of the draft be foremost in your mind. I usually decide on a few players to put at the top of my list for certain rounds so that, for example, I know that I'm going to take Smoltz with my 7th round pick if he's available. Once you have plugged in a few names, and your keepers if you have them, it's noticeably easier to see how you will want to approach the rest of your draft.  No matter how your draft goes, remember to keep your eye on the biggest target of all: winning your league. Best of luck for a great season!