Roto vs. Head-to-Head
by Josh Parks
published May 22, 2004

Josh Parks is a Seattle freelance writer and baseball enthusiast.  This is his second year with Baseball Notebook.

Ever since my first season managing a fantasy baseball team several years ago, which happened to be in a head-to-head league, I’ve wondered about how this poor relation to the venerable rotisserie format determines how you should run your team.  Finding myself with the forum of Baseball Notebook to explore this question, I thought I would ask a few recognized experts, including our own David Luciani, to weigh in on the issue. Besides David, Ray Murphy from BaseballHQ, and Brendan Roberts from the Sporting News, were both kind enough to field my questions. I’ll be sprinkling in their answers as this article progresses, especially if they make me look smart.

Before I get to that, though, I want to clarify my terms. When I say “head-to-head,” I’m referring to a league in which teams face off against each other, usually either on a weekly or daily basis. Scoring is generally based on either a point system, where discrete events like hits or runs earn points, much like fantasy football, or else category-based, where teams receive a point for each category they win with accumulated stats for that day or week. I’ve only participated in category head-to-head leagues with weekly match-ups, so my discussion will favor that variation.

Although I cut my fantasy baseball teeth in a head-to-head league, I had some objections to the format at first. It seemed obvious to me that in a game whose very soul has a standard deviation, chopping the season into 25 or more “mini seasons" would introduce an element of randomness that could, shall we say, diminish the proceedings as a showcase of forecasting skill. When even the best players can hit .095 one week and .667 the next, there's only so much forecasting can do for you. You might be perfectly accurate about what kind of individual seasons your players end up having – down to each run, hit, or error – and still lose your league simply because your team wasn’t hot at the right time. In a rotisserie league, timing doesn’t matter as much. If your team hits 300 home runs on the first day or the last it can still win that category as long as nobody else accumulates more.

I remember objecting to this on the message board of a rotisserie league I was in that was considering a move to head-to-head. One of the responses I got opened my eyes a bit (although the format wasn’t changed). The fellow manager pointed out, in defense of the head-to-head format, that in a way, the randomness was more like real baseball.   After mulling this over for a while, I have to admit that view carries some weight with me. After all, we only have to look at the Yankees – arguably the best team on paper the past three years – and its failure to win the Series since 2000 to see the parallel. You can put the “best” team together, but if the players don’t play well when it counts, they’ll get beat.

I will say having a head-to-head playoff that occurs over the last few weeks of the regular season is complicated by how real-life teams manage their players during that time. Teams that have locked up real playoff spots may rest some of their stalwarts, depriving fantasy teams of their production. Likewise, real teams that are completely out of it may bring up some of their prospects for a cup of coffee at the expense of veteran playing time. Head-to-head teams generally just have to suffer the consequences.

Although I’ve warmed to the format myself, all three members of my “panel” noted that it lags rotisserie in popularity. Luciani estimates that no more than 10% of the questions he receives are related to the head-to-head format, although he added that “this may not be reflective of what percentage of people are playing because our own site is more focused in the direction of rotisserie-style fantasy leagues.”

Roberts also estimates a 10% popularity rating for head-to-head. “However, that number is increasing as certain sites allow owners to play head-to-head for free," he observed. "Many prefer the sudden change of head-to-head standings and the volatility in the standings.” Ray Murphy concurs, adding, “I think the minority that play head-to-head are quite attached to the format” – something I’ve noticed as well.

If by chance you find yourself in a head-to-head league, or you happen to be one of the dedicated proponents of this format, there are a few issues worth considering when trying to put together and manage your team.

The first thing to realize, in my view, is that the fundamental principle of looking for the best, most productive players you can find still applies. I’ve always started from the idea that by maximizing season-long production I’m maximizing the overall probability that on average my players will perform well during any given match-up.

An alternative is to try to "time the market," looking for players who tend to perform well in, say, the first half of the season and trying to move those players as play progresses for second half players. It turns out that market timing is a great way to get scorched on Wall Street, and in fantasy baseball. First of all, if you're expecting to acquire your "second half" players in trades, you're putting a lot of your fate in the hands of other owners who might not be willing to deal. Second, if you're planning to take players off the wire, almost by definition you're looking at questionable players to begin with, otherwise they wouldn't be available. Usually by the time a player has enough of a track record to reveal first-half or second-half tendencies, there's also enough of a track record to know if that player is worth owning for an entire season, and owners will act accordingly. Trading a hot starter for someone you expect to come on strong over the summer is certainly a reasonable approach, and when it works it really works, but it's nothing to build a team around.

So as a starting point, you want players who have proved they can put together strong seasons. As Roberts puts it, "The difference in the type of player you're looking for isn't that great – fantasy owners always should seek all-around fantasy studs." Beyond that, however, there's plenty of food for thought. Again from Roberts:

The team-wide focus is different. For instance, in a straight [rotisserie] 5x5 league, I will always try to draft well for all categories. If I see my team needs saves or stolen bases or more power, I'll focus more on it. That would be ideal in head-to-head leagues, but it's not a necessity. If you see a power hitter that could bolster three categories (HR, RBI, R) even though you have one or two of them, you still can grab them. In other words, it's more acceptable to punt categories in head-to-head leagues.

I tend to agree, but cautiously. Since there are no gradations of losing categories in head-to-head – you either win or you don't – and the stats don't accumulate from match-up to match-up, if you can truly dominate certain categories week in and week out you should fare well. Because of the chopped up season, however, domination is by no means guaranteed. In Rotisserie-style leagues, however, you'll typically succeed by doing well across all categories. A team that dominates six categories (which is not that easy) and punts four in a 12-team 5x5 roto league will have 78 points. A team that's fourth in every category will have 90.

Those inclined toward this approach may want to consider these words from Mr. Murphy

I'd advocate the approach of building a big offense first and foremost. One of the approaches we advocate at BaseballHQ is the LIMA Plan (for Low Investment Mound Aces), which basically suggests building a huge offense and backfilling with undervalued but well-skilled pitchers. I think in head-to-head, you're more likely to get more consistent weekly results from a good offense than good pitching. And consistency, if you can find it, is critically important in head-to-head.

I think Murphy's point about consistency is a good observation. On a weekly basis, it's relatively easier to get consistency out of your hitters than your pitchers, if only because hitters play almost every day. I'd expect any team that can consistently dominate the hitting categories and just a couple on the pitching side to make the playoffs every time in a head-to-head league.

Luciani offers a different opinion, however. For him, "Starting pitchers do seem to be key, much like in real life." Although he also points out that, "The value of players remains based on the categories used and whether I'm in a head-to-head match-up or a typical rotisserie style match-up, I'm going to try to be maximizing value."

Murphy also noted that he looks for "hitters who contribute across multiple categories…power-speed guys in particular." On the pitching side he finds, "Good closers are perhaps more valuable, since saves seems to regularly be the swing pitching category in a weekly match-up."

Some other issues to consider when building your team are depth and balance. "One thing you have to keep in mind in head-to-head drafts is that you need to have plenty of depth, particularly if you're allowed to have a reserve list," Luciani says, although this depends somewhat on your league's parameters, I find. For teams that are able to make daily lineup changes, for example, good depth can make a noticeable difference over the course of a season. Teams that make weekly lineup changes may want to think more in terms of insuring themselves against injury.

"In leagues that don't have reserve lists," Luciani added, "it's always good to have some 'swing style' pitchers who can alternate between starting and relieving because these guys can win you your weekly or daily match-up. In fact, in daily match-ups, you can single-handedly win a league simply by having plenty of starting pitchers that you rotate throughout your lineup."

As for balance, Roberts points out that, "It's frustrating to win five hitting categories, only to get five losses from your sorry pitchers. Have a balance between hitting and pitching.  Also keep in mind that all you must do is win a category, not kill fellow owners. Drafting all the speed in the world will only get a SBs win each week."

While this might argue against the domination discussion above, I think it serves more to temper it. If you're following something like Baseball HQ's LIMA plan, it's up to you to realize when you've got enough steals to compete effectively in that category each week. Even more important, you need to recognize the various tradeoffs involved, and that if you completely lock up steals you are quite likely sacrificing production elsewhere. Even though year-end totals typically don't count in a head-to-head league, I do think you want to kill fellow owners on these terms in as many categories as possible, since that will maximize the probability of doing well in any given week. But Roberts' point that you can overdo it in one category or another is well taken.

Once the season starts there are several more issues head-to-head managers should keep in mind. The first, especially for Baseball Notebook subscribers, has to do with player valuations. Those who use the ranking sheets may be dismayed to find the value of one of their injured star players plummeting because of missed time. Keep in mind those values are for the what's left of the season, not how valuable that player will be once he returns. Also, since injury often makes playing time uncertain, it's difficult to assess the impact on value. For example, in one of my leagues Chipper Jones was listed at about $18 until he'd established he was recovered and jumped to $28.

In rotisserie, where stats accumulate, the more time a player misses the smaller impact he can have on your stats. In head-to-head on the other hand, where you're playing 25 or more "seasons" in effect, once a player returns he can have just as much impact as before he was hurt. Take Preston Wilson, in this case. His opening day forecast was for 40 homers, or about 1.6 per week. Let's say that's 16% of a projected total of 250 for my team. Let's also say he returns in a couple of weeks and hits 21 homers the rest of the way (his current forecast). He'll finish with only about 9% of my team's total, about a 44% drop. But if I've got him in a head-to-head league, I want to notice that he's still forecasted to hit about 1.3 homers per week, or only about a 23% drop. This is something head-to-head managers should keep in mind when looking at injured players on the ranking sheets.

This same sort of thinking comes into play when considering another in-season issue: trades. While a late-season trade has less chance to help you in a rotisserie league, in head-to-head it shouldn't matter as long as the forecasted production rates stay the same. This is something to remember if you find yourself in the hunt for a playoff spot or you're preparing for a playoff run. Five saves might not make much difference in a rotisserie league's standings, whereas one additional save a week can make a big difference in a head-to-head match-up.

Another factor when considering trades is how competitive you are in different categories. Having one closer on a Rotisserie roster might be enough to keep you out of the basement, depending on who it is. In head-to-head, however, as Murphy points out, one closer "may have more trade value than he does value to your team, because one closer most weeks won't be enough to win the saves battle."

How a trade might affect the competitive landscape of your league is another often overlooked consideration. Since you're matching up against individual teams, as Luciani points out:

You want to look at whether you're going to be providing strength to a team you're facing in the coming days or if, better yet, in addition to helping your own team, the flip-side of your deal addresses some weakness that will help an upcoming opponent of your main competitor.

While he also maintains that this is less of a concern in non-head-to-head leagues, I think it's worth noting in Rotisserie leagues at least. In a points league, certainly, you can't really hurt somebody ahead of you by helping somebody behind you, but in Rotisserie, under the right circumstances, it should in theory be possible to help someone behind you to take points away from a team in front of you. If you've got saves locked up and a team you're chasing is second in that category and the last place team overall is third, if you help the last place team move up in saves you've taken a point away from your rival without hurting yourself.

I will tell you one thing. If you like the Ronco "Set It And Forget It" infomercial (which, appropriately enough, is for a Rotisserie roaster), you'll probably hate head-to-head. While a good roto team might need relatively few adjustments, the compressed head-to-head format can sometimes reward micromanaging, which Murphy calls "the biggest difference in the head-to-head game." Luciani, for his part, cited an example where:

If you're playing a team that has no steals and your head-to-head league is awarding you points for this, there's no point in starting a Juan Pierre over one of your big sluggers, if you set daily lineups and have deep reserve lists.  You're trying to just edge out a win in each category in some cases and in head-to-head leagues that reward the winner of each category a point, you have to watch out for this.

Murphy brought up a couple of other examples. "At what point in the week do you decide your ERA race is lost, and focus on chasing wins instead?" he said. "You may be on the other side of that fight and be trying to protect an ERA lead, only to see your closer get bombed late in the week. You'll make lineup changes that seem incomprehensible in roto, like sitting down Carl Crawford for a weekend because his steals won't help you, but an extra HR from Matt Stairs might."

He went on:

I played in a head-to-head league with daily transactions last season. It was a 12-team mixed league, so the player pool was pretty shallow. Still, every couple of weeks when I had a tight race in some pitching category, I'd end up making a weekend pickup of a starter like Mike Maroth, in search of an extra win. In a 12-team mixed roto league, Mike Maroth would never get anywhere near an active roster. In that sense, if your head-to-head [league] allows liberal player movement, you'll end up using (or at least monitoring) much more of the player pool than you'd expect to based on your league size.

While advocating managers "religiously tinker" with their rosters, Roberts points out the potential benefits to be gained from your pitching staff, since "sometimes it's ideal to have a group of starters on your bench to rotate in based on starts, match-ups, etc. That helps the wins and Ks totals."

Granted, the unpredictability in the standings is part of the appeal, but both Luciani and Roberts made reference to the downside. "I could be wrong," Luciani said, "but my own limited head-to-head leagues seem to carry a bit more emotion, as if members complain that some opponents don't put the toughest possible lineup out there against their friends (if they're already out of the race) or make trades immediately after they have no games left against the opponent."

Roberts had this to offer: "Once in a point head-to-head league, the leading overall scorer finished third and lost in the first round of the playoffs. He was quite upset. Owners shouldn't play it unless they know that inherent risk: The best team doesn't always win."

Also on the downside, Luciani observed, "it does seem that in head-to-head leagues, collusion can be much easier to pull off and so it sometimes requires great monitoring.  Particularly because the inactivity of a team out of a race can clinch another team's spot as champion, unlike Rotisserie leagues where the bottom tier of teams often just fades away, this deserves even greater attention."

I haven't noticed any outsized problems with tempers or collusion in the leagues I've played in, but I can see, especially if there's much of a stake at stake, how that could become a problem.

Whether you're a fan or not, there are no signs the head-to-head format is going away anytime soon. I'd even venture to say that your fantasy baseball experience is not complete until you've played in at least one league. Just remember that when you're going head-to-head you still want to go after studs, manage your roster as actively as you can, adjust your thinking regarding trades and injuries, and don't be afraid to dominate where you can. Oh, yeah, one more thing: don't forget your helmet.

Baseball Notebook enthusiastically thanks Ray Murphy from Baseball HQ and Brendan Roberts from The Sporting News for their contributions to this discussion.