Good Luck, Bad Luck
published Friday, June 1, 2007

This season, we've introduced a new report designed to highlight performances that may be outside of a player's long-term sustainable ability. As we said, this report will run most Friday evenings up until early September and, if you haven't already, we encourage you to check out the first column in the series for details on what the categories mean, how the lists are calculated and how to properly use them.

All data is through play completed Thursday.

Highest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 55 at bats

If player has performed above typical league leading levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 35% league-leading type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be benefiting from some lucky singles, though in the long run, the best singles hitters should eventually end up on this list.

REGGIE WILLITS, LAA, 129 AB, 36% 1B/BIP Rate, .333 (.326)
WILLIE HARRIS, ATL, 72 AB, 36% 1B/BIP Rate, .389 (.384)
WILLY TAVERAS, COL, 141 AB, 35% 1B/BIP Rate, .312
TONY GWYNN, MIL, 69 AB, 34% 1B/BIP Rate, .333
LUIS CASTILLO, MIN, 161 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .335
AKINORI IWAMURA, TB, 66 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .364
MATT DIAZ, ATL, 113 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .345
JASON SMITH, ARI, 56 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .214
OMAR INFANTE, DET, 59 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .305
B.J. UPTON, TB, 169 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .325

Lowest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 55 at bats

If player has performed below typical league-worst levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 15% league-trailing type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be experiencing some bad luck in terms of how many singles are dropping in.

GEOFF BLUM, SD, 61 AB, 9% 1B/BIP Rate, .180 (.230)
JASON LANE, HOU, 78 AB, 9% 1B/BIP Rate, .167 (.222)
FRANK CATALANOTTO, TEX, 82 AB, 10% 1B/BIP Rate, .183 (.229)
JACK CUST, OAK, 72 AB, 10% 1B/BIP Rate, .222 (.250)
GREGG ZAUN, TOR, 59 AB, 10% 1B/BIP Rate, .186 (.226)
KHALIL GREENE, SD, 194 AB, 11% 1B/BIP Rate, .216 (.252)
WILSON BETEMIT, LAD, 88 AB, 11% 1B/BIP Rate, .193 (.219)
RICHIE SEXSON, SEA, 168 AB, 11% 1B/BIP Rate, .196 (.224)
CHONE FIGGINS, LAA, 94 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .160 (.179)
RAMON MARTINEZ, LAD, 57 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .158 (.175)

Top Contact Rates, minimum 55 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact more often than is sustainable (which usually leads to a higher batting average), though eventually the best contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

DAVID ECKSTEIN, STL, 155 AB, 96% Rate
PLACIDO POLANCO, DET, 201 AB, 96% Rate
STEVE FINLEY, COL, 93 AB, 96% Rate
LUIS RODRIGUEZ, MIN, 63 AB, 95% Rate
LUIS CASTILLO, MIN, 161 AB, 94% Rate
ADAM KENNEDY, STL, 140 AB, 94% Rate
CESAR IZTURIS, CHC, 124 AB, 94% Rate
DUSTIN PEDROIA, BOS, 120 AB, 93% Rate
PAUL LO DUCA, NYM, 160 AB, 93% Rate
LUIS GONZALEZ, LAD, 172 AB, 93% Rate

Bottom Contact Rates, minimum 55 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact less often than they actually can (which usually leads to a lower batting average), though the worst contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

JACK CUST, OAK, 72 AB, 56% Rate
CRAIG WILSON, ATL, 58 AB, 57% Rate
TODD LINDEN, FLO, 65 AB, 57% Rate
JASON SMITH, ARI, 56 AB, 57% Rate
DAVE ROSS, CIN, 125 AB, 61% Rate
WILY MO PENA, BOS, 59 AB, 61% Rate
RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 88 AB, 61% Rate
ADAM DUNN, CIN, 191 AB, 62% Rate
RYAN HOWARD, PHI, 117 AB, 62% Rate
ROB BOWEN, SD, 64 AB, 64% Rate

HIGHEST BABIP (minimum 165 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be experiencing a lot of bad luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

JAE SEO, TB, 248 BFP, .378 BABIP
ADAM WAINWRIGHT, STL, 268 BFP, .365 BABIP
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 212 BFP, .355 BABIP
ZACK GREINKE, KC, 216 BFP, .354 BABIP
SIDNEY PONSON, MIN, 181 BFP, .351 BABIP
HORACIO RAMIREZ, SEA, 192 BFP, .350 BABIP
ZACH DUKE, PIT, 266 BFP, .348 BABIP
MIGUEL BATISTA, SEA, 261 BFP, .347 BABIP
TAYLOR BUCHHOLZ, COL, 179 BFP, .345 BABIP
KEVIN MILLWOOD, TEX, 168 BFP, .345 BABIP

LOWEST BABIP (minimum 165 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be benefiting from some good luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

ORLANDO HERNANDEZ, NYM, 170 BFP, .176 BABIP
JASON BERGMANN, WAS, 196 BFP, .180 BABIP
DAN HAREN, OAK, 320 BFP, .205 BABIP
RICH HILL, CHC, 259 BFP, .213 BABIP
JASON MARQUIS, CHC, 292 BFP, .220 BABIP
OLIVER PEREZ, NYM, 259 BFP, .222 BABIP
STEVE TRACHSEL, BAL, 278 BFP, .223 BABIP
MARK BUEHRLE, CHW, 253 BFP, .224 BABIP
SHAWN HILL, WAS, 204 BFP, .229 BABIP
A.J. BURNETT, TOR, 299 BFP, .231 BABIP

Pitchers with ERA Worse Than ERMA (minimum 165 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching better than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

ANTHONY REYES, STL, 216 BFP, 6.08 (4.29)
KAMERON LOE, TEX, 239 BFP, 6.17 (4.83)
KIP WELLS, STL, 295 BFP, 6.20 (4.96)
JON GARLAND, CHW, 276 BFP, 3.91 (2.74)
JULIAN TAVAREZ, BOS, 214 BFP, 5.40 (4.29)
CHA SEUNG BAEK, SEA, 208 BFP, 4.93 (3.83)
BRANDON MCCARTHY, TEX, 211 BFP, 6.36 (5.36)
ROY HALLADAY, TOR, 257 BFP, 3.89 (2.92)
VICENTE PADILLA, TEX, 308 BFP, 6.45 (5.51)
BARRY ZITO, SF, 289 BFP, 4.22 (3.29)

Pitchers with ERA Better Than ERMA (minimum 165 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching worse than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

SERGIO MITRE, FLO, 213 BFP, 1.74 (3.48)
DOUG DAVIS, ARI, 300 BFP, 3.27 (4.77)
SHAWN CHACON, PIT, 190 BFP, 2.84 (4.27)
FREDDY GARCIA, PHI, 225 BFP, 4.59 (5.65)
JUSTIN VERLANDER, DET, 293 BFP, 3.44 (4.50)
BOOF BONSER, MIN, 276 BFP, 3.61 (4.62)
TOM GORZELANNY, PIT, 300 BFP, 2.38 (3.39)
JOHN LACKEY, LAA, 300 BFP, 2.37 (3.36)
MIKE MAROTH, DET, 243 BFP, 5.05 (6.02)
CLAUDIO VARGAS, MIL, 247 BFP, 3.91 (4.88)