Good Luck, Bad Luck
published Friday, June 8, 2007

This season, we've introduced a new report designed to highlight performances that may be outside of a player's long-term sustainable ability. As we said, this report will run most Friday evenings up until early September and, if you haven't already, we encourage you to check out the first column in the series for details on what the categories mean, how the lists are calculated and how to properly use them.

All data is through play completed Thursday.

Highest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 61 at bats

If player has performed above typical league leading levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 35% league-leading type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be benefiting from some lucky singles, though in the long run, the best singles hitters should eventually end up on this list.

WILLIE HARRIS, ATL, 88 AB, 35% 1B/BIP Rate, .375
WILLY TAVERAS, COL, 170 AB, 34% 1B/BIP Rate, .324
OMAR INFANTE, DET, 77 AB, 34% 1B/BIP Rate, .325
AKINORI IWAMURA, TB, 73 AB, 34% 1B/BIP Rate, .370
LUIS CASTILLO, MIN, 186 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .339
TONY GWYNN, MIL, 78 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .308
REGGIE WILLITS, LAA, 153 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .320
MATT DIAZ, ATL, 132 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .333
CLIFF FLOYD, CHC, 111 AB, 29% 1B/BIP Rate, .306
ICHIRO SUZUKI, SEA, 237 AB, 29% 1B/BIP Rate, .333

Lowest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 61 at bats

If player has performed below typical league-worst levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 15% league-trailing type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be experiencing some bad luck in terms of how many singles are dropping in.

JASON LARUE, KC, 62 AB, 5% 1B/BIP Rate, .129 (.186)
JASON LANE, HOU, 79 AB, 9% 1B/BIP Rate, .165 (.222)
FRANK CATALANOTTO, TEX, 90 AB, 10% 1B/BIP Rate, .178 (.221)
WILSON BETEMIT, LAD, 91 AB, 11% 1B/BIP Rate, .187 (.212)
KHALIL GREENE, SD, 208 AB, 12% 1B/BIP Rate, .221 (.249)
RICHIE SEXSON, SEA, 188 AB, 12% 1B/BIP Rate, .197 (.217)
GEOFF BLUM, SD, 73 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .205 (.223)
JUAN CASTRO, CIN, 71 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .169 (.185)
CHRIS BURKE, HOU, 81 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .235 (.240)
DIONER NAVARRO, TB, 145 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .186 (.192)

Top Contact Rates, minimum 61 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact more often than is sustainable (which usually leads to a higher batting average), though eventually the best contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

DAVID ECKSTEIN, STL, 173 AB, 97% Rate
STEVE FINLEY, COL, 94 AB, 96% Rate
PLACIDO POLANCO, DET, 229 AB, 95% Rate
LUIS RODRIGUEZ, MIN, 69 AB, 94% Rate
LUIS CASTILLO, MIN, 186 AB, 94% Rate
PAUL LO DUCA, NYM, 180 AB, 93% Rate
ORLANDO CABRERA, LAA, 234 AB, 93% Rate
JAY PAYTON, BAL, 146 AB, 93% Rate
JOSE VIDRO, SEA, 224 AB, 93% Rate
CESAR IZTURIS, CHC, 139 AB, 93% Rate

Bottom Contact Rates, minimum 61 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact less often than they actually can (which usually leads to a lower batting average), though the worst contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

JACK CUST, OAK, 87 AB, 55% Rate
TODD LINDEN, FLO, 69 AB, 58% Rate
JASON LARUE, KC, 62 AB, 60% Rate
WILY MO PENA, BOS, 79 AB, 62% Rate
RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 98 AB, 62% Rate
ADAM DUNN, CIN, 212 AB, 62% Rate
DAVE ROSS, CIN, 138 AB, 63% Rate
JOE BORCHARD, FLO, 146 AB, 65% Rate
RYAN HOWARD, PHI, 139 AB, 65% Rate
B.J. UPTON, TB, 199 AB, 66% Rate

HIGHEST BABIP (minimum 183 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be experiencing a lot of bad luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

JAE SEO, TB, 248 BFP, .378 BABIP
KEVIN MILLWOOD, TEX, 216 BFP, .369 BABIP
FELIX HERNANDEZ, SEA, 189 BFP, .366 BABIP
ZACK GREINKE, KC, 227 BFP, .355 BABIP
HORACIO RAMIREZ, SEA, 192 BFP, .350 BABIP
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 257 BFP, .349 BABIP
ZACH DUKE, PIT, 323 BFP, .345 BABIP
ADAM WAINWRIGHT, STL, 323 BFP, .344 BABIP
KAMERON LOE, TEX, 283 BFP, .342 BABIP
BRETT TOMKO, LAD, 228 BFP, .342 BABIP

LOWEST BABIP (minimum 183 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be benefiting from some good luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

ORLANDO HERNANDEZ, NYM, 193 BFP, .178 BABIP
JASON BERGMANN, WAS, 196 BFP, .180 BABIP
DAN HAREN, OAK, 348 BFP, .200 BABIP
RICH HILL, CHC, 312 BFP, .208 BABIP
OLIVER PEREZ, NYM, 286 BFP, .221 BABIP
JASON MARQUIS, CHC, 320 BFP, .226 BABIP
SHAWN HILL, WAS, 204 BFP, .229 BABIP
STEVE TRACHSEL, BAL, 295 BFP, .229 BABIP
JAMES SHIELDS, TB, 358 BFP, .231 BABIP
JEREMY GUTHRIE, BAL, 225 BFP, .234 BABIP

Pitchers with ERA Worse Than ERMA (minimum 183 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching better than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

ANTHONY REYES, STL, 216 BFP, 6.08 (4.29)
KAMERON LOE, TEX, 283 BFP, 7.40 (5.66)
KIP WELLS, STL, 320 BFP, 6.40 (5.12)
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 257 BFP, 7.40 (6.20)
DAVID BUSH, MIL, 314 BFP, 5.66 (4.58)
JEREMY SOWERS, CLE, 263 BFP, 6.64 (5.56)
BRANDON MCCARTHY, TEX, 211 BFP, 6.36 (5.36)
CHA SEUNG BAEK, SEA, 234 BFP, 4.91 (3.93)
VICENTE PADILLA, TEX, 308 BFP, 6.45 (5.51)
JON GARLAND, CHW, 309 BFP, 3.61 (2.68)

Pitchers with ERA Better Than ERMA (minimum 183 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching worse than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

SERGIO MITRE, FLO, 232 BFP, 1.59 (3.33)
DOUG DAVIS, ARI, 332 BFP, 3.05 (4.52)
BRIAN BURRES, BAL, 195 BFP, 2.88 (4.12)
SHAWN CHACON, PIT, 217 BFP, 3.26 (4.35)
JUSTIN VERLANDER, DET, 319 BFP, 3.12 (4.20)
CLAUDIO VARGAS, MIL, 272 BFP, 4.00 (5.04)
GIL MECHE, KC, 349 BFP, 3.00 (3.96)
BOOF BONSER, MIN, 302 BFP, 4.12 (5.05)
CHAD GAUDIN, OAK, 299 BFP, 2.41 (3.30)
MATT MORRIS, SF, 345 BFP, 2.52 (3.39)