Good Luck, Bad Luck
published Friday, June 15, 2007

This season, we've introduced a new report designed to highlight performances that may be outside of a player's long-term sustainable ability. As we said, this report will run most Friday evenings up until early September and, if you haven't already, we encourage you to check out the first column in the series for details on what the categories mean, how the lists are calculated and how to properly use them.

All data is through play completed Thursday.

Highest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 67 at bats

If player has performed above typical league leading levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 35% league-leading type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be benefiting from some lucky singles, though in the long run, the best singles hitters should eventually end up on this list.

MARLON BYRD, TEX, 70 AB, 40% 1B/BIP Rate, .386 (.343)
OMAR INFANTE, DET, 87 AB, 36% 1B/BIP Rate, .333 (.328)
WILLIE HARRIS, ATL, 101 AB, 35% 1B/BIP Rate, .396 (.394)
TONY GWYNN, MIL, 82 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .305
WILLY TAVERAS, COL, 197 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .310
REGGIE WILLITS, LAA, 167 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .323
LUIS CASTILLO, MIN, 213 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .333
MATT DIAZ, ATL, 144 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .333
CLIFF FLOYD, CHC, 119 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .319
AKINORI IWAMURA, TB, 98 AB, 30% 1B/BIP Rate, .327

Lowest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 67 at bats

If player has performed below typical league-worst levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 15% league-trailing type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be experiencing some bad luck in terms of how many singles are dropping in.

JASON LANE, HOU, 79 AB, 9% 1B/BIP Rate, .165 (.222)
JASON LARUE, KC, 74 AB, 11% 1B/BIP Rate, .176 (.203)
KHALIL GREENE, SD, 232 AB, 12% 1B/BIP Rate, .228 (.253)
RICHIE SEXSON, SEA, 214 AB, 12% 1B/BIP Rate, .196 (.219)
FRANK CATALANOTTO, TEX, 101 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .188 (.210)
GEOFF BLUM, SD, 84 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .190 (.206)
ROD BARAJAS, PHI, 84 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .214 (.227)
GABE GROSS, MIL, 68 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .191 (.203)
CARLOS QUENTIN, ARI, 159 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .208 (.217)
ANDRUW JONES, ATL, 242 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .215 (.221)

Top Contact Rates, minimum 67 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact more often than is sustainable (which usually leads to a higher batting average), though eventually the best contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

DAVID ECKSTEIN, STL, 192 AB, 96% Rate
STEVE FINLEY, COL, 94 AB, 96% Rate
PLACIDO POLANCO, DET, 251 AB, 95% Rate
LUIS RODRIGUEZ, MIN, 69 AB, 94% Rate
GARY BENNETT, STL, 76 AB, 93% Rate
PAUL LO DUCA, NYM, 204 AB, 93% Rate
ORLANDO CABRERA, LAA, 261 AB, 93% Rate
LUIS CASTILLO, MIN, 213 AB, 93% Rate
KENJI JOHJIMA, SEA, 192 AB, 93% Rate
JOSE VIDRO, SEA, 233 AB, 93% Rate

Bottom Contact Rates, minimum 67 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact less often than they actually can (which usually leads to a lower batting average), though the worst contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

JACK CUST, OAK, 101 AB, 54% Rate
TODD LINDEN, FLO, 69 AB, 58% Rate
RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 113 AB, 61% Rate
WILY MO PENA, BOS, 84 AB, 62% Rate
ADAM DUNN, CIN, 233 AB, 62% Rate
RUSSELL BRANYAN, SD, 69 AB, 62% Rate
RYAN HOWARD, PHI, 163 AB, 63% Rate
JASON LARUE, KC, 74 AB, 64% Rate
DAVE ROSS, CIN, 151 AB, 64% Rate
JOE BORCHARD, FLO, 150 AB, 65% Rate

HIGHEST BABIP (minimum 201 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be experiencing a lot of bad luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

JAE SEO, TB, 248 BFP, .378 BABIP
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 265 BFP, .360 BABIP
KEVIN MILLWOOD, TEX, 240 BFP, .360 BABIP
FELIX HERNANDEZ, SEA, 214 BFP, .360 BABIP
ZACK GREINKE, KC, 250 BFP, .356 BABIP
ZACH DUKE, PIT, 346 BFP, .352 BABIP
ODALIS PEREZ, KC, 330 BFP, .341 BABIP
BRETT TOMKO, LAD, 235 BFP, .340 BABIP
FREDDY GARCIA, PHI, 264 BFP, .339 BABIP
BOOF BONSER, MIN, 328 BFP, .336 BABIP

LOWEST BABIP (minimum 201 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be benefiting from some good luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

ORLANDO HERNANDEZ, NYM, 220 BFP, .200 BABIP
DAN HAREN, OAK, 374 BFP, .204 BABIP
RICH HILL, CHC, 340 BFP, .219 BABIP
JASON MARQUIS, CHC, 355 BFP, .225 BABIP
SHAWN HILL, WAS, 204 BFP, .229 BABIP
OLIVER PEREZ, NYM, 313 BFP, .232 BABIP
STEVE TRACHSEL, BAL, 348 BFP, .233 BABIP
JAMES SHIELDS, TB, 387 BFP, .234 BABIP
JEREMY GUTHRIE, BAL, 282 BFP, .234 BABIP
JUSTIN VERLANDER, DET, 349 BFP, .238 BABIP

Pitchers with ERA Worse Than ERMA (minimum 201 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching better than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

ANTHONY REYES, STL, 216 BFP, 6.08 (4.29)
TIMOTHY LINCECUM, SF, 205 BFP, 5.25 (3.75)
KAMERON LOE, TEX, 313 BFP, 6.56 (5.14)
KIP WELLS, STL, 356 BFP, 6.92 (5.51)
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 265 BFP, 8.20 (7.00)
JEREMY SOWERS, CLE, 283 BFP, 6.93 (5.78)
DUSTIN MCGOWAN, TOR, 207 BFP, 4.78 (3.67)
CHA SEUNG BAEK, SEA, 261 BFP, 5.22 (4.18)
DAVID BUSH, MIL, 335 BFP, 5.70 (4.67)
KYLE DAVIES, ATL, 295 BFP, 5.70 (4.75)

Pitchers with ERA Better Than ERMA (minimum 201 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching worse than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

SERGIO MITRE, FLO, 232 BFP, 1.59 (3.33)
BRIAN BURRES, BAL, 201 BFP, 2.80 (4.00)
DOUG DAVIS, ARI, 381 BFP, 3.70 (4.90)
MIKE MAROTH, DET, 323 BFP, 4.91 (6.02)
CLAUDIO VARGAS, MIL, 275 BFP, 3.94 (4.96)
JUSTIN VERLANDER, DET, 349 BFP, 2.79 (3.75)
JOHN DANKS, CHW, 296 BFP, 4.34 (5.29)
JOHN LACKEY, LAA, 382 BFP, 2.52 (3.40)
BOOF BONSER, MIN, 328 BFP, 4.21 (5.08)
PAUL BYRD, CLE, 300 BFP, 4.50 (5.29)