Trading: The Art of Selling Low
published June 21, 2006
by David Luciani

Everyone knows the stock trading concept that dictates that we should "buy low, sell high."  It makes sense and there's no need to prove here that the trader who successfully does this, in stocks or in fantasy baseball, will be successful.  When fantasy baseball was relatively new, or at least spreading in popularity around North America, some of the early official Rotisserie materials rightly advocated the concept of "trade them while they're hot and get them while they're not."  The idea which helped many a fantasy owner in the mid 1980s and even into the early 1990s was that certain players have a track record and if they start slow, they can easily be acquired.  Conversely, many players are notoriously slow starters and the intelligent fantasy GM can go out and pick them up relatively cheap.

Times have changed.  Everyone knows about track records and just about every fantasy GM who has any remote success understands and exploits the idea of "buy low, sell high" and so, if your plan is to go out and get a guy who constantly clubs 40 home runs or wins 20 games, all I can do is wish you luck in finding a compatible trading partner.  Everyone knows the idea now.

Rather, I wish to discuss in this space the art of selling low.  While it may seem like a foolish idea to "sell low" it isn't always the case as low can be a perception.  Certainly, like in the stock market, if you knew a player's performance isn't falsely low and that his season-long slump is for real, you might be able to match up with a trading partner who believes otherwise, who is absolutely convinced that the player you're anxious to move will soon rebound and start pounding home runs or winning games.  You can call it cutting your losses but better yet, you can often get close to pre-2006 value for these players if you match up with a trading partner who thinks the player will soon rebound and thinks they're pulling one over on you.

You see, while it makes sense to buy low and sell high, you can actually exploit this way of thinking in your trades.  Low and high are matters of perception and while your goal is to buy or trade for players when they have a perceived value lower than their real value, at the same time, you can take advantage of opportunities which present themselves in the form of players whom you really do not expect to rebound, the so-called "lows" that your opponents are trying to buy.  When you have a player with a strong track record, many a fantasy opponent is salivating at the chance to acquire a player they believe is simply suffering from bad luck or a season-long slump, as opposed to an unfortunate change in skills.

The problem for any fantasy GM is distinguishing which players will rebound from a bad couple of months and which ones won't.  So let's look at some players whom we don't project to rebound to their former levels, at least not for the remainder of 2006.  I've deliberately tried to confine my analysis to players with a strong track record and this is no accident.  I want to highlight names that your fantasy opponents might feel will do much better the rest of the way than they have and ones that the analysis tells us will not.  No doubt some of these players will be better but the objective here is not necessarily to identify players who won't play better than they have so far.  Rather, we're looking for players who won't play up to their pre-2006 levels of performance:

Randy Johnson: My forecast for Johnson has continued to decline and his projected ERA, even for the rest of the season, is now above 4.00.  I strongly doubt that there are many left who think of him as The Big Unit of 2004 but it's possible.  Even at that, there might be a trading partner who doesn't see him as the dominant version of his old self but still figures that because he plays for the Yankees and because he had a sub-4.00 ERA last year, that he's good for lots of wins and a good ERA.  It has come to the point that the over/under at gambling on Johnson has shifted and it is likely, if not certain, that the inevitable effects of age (he is, after all, forty-two years old) have finally caught up with him.

Richie Sexson: I imagine he's high on a lot of bargain-hunter lists, especially when he's hitting only .205.  The bad news is that I'm not projecting him to return to former levels and my current projection is for just a .228 average the rest of the way.  No doubt, he'll get into one of his two week long super streaks at some point before the end of the year but he just isn't the same player he was and it's unclear whether injuries or a home park that doesn't suit his hitting style are the reason for his premature decline in skills.  Regardless, someone out there is going to be expecting him to do as he did in 2005 and if you search hard enough, you can get close to that level of projected value in return.

Mike Cameron:  Cameron's slow start looks terrible when you compare what he did in about a half season a year ago or those solid power years from 2001-2004 but he's unlikely to return to those levels.  His power is actually fading a bit early (he's only thirty-three) and though he's hit a couple of home runs the past week, those expecting a return to his former peak will likely be disappointed.  Even when he was at his best, he never hit for average and since he still steals some bases, you might find an opponent willing to get excited about taking him off your hands.

Frank Thomas:  He's on the DL but he's expected back soon.  I'd suggest that as soon as he gets back, if you have him on your team, you may want to move quickly.  His power numbers have been fantastic but the average remains low and I'm not projecting it to return to former levels.  There are still people out there who think that if he could stay healthy, he'd still be a big-time producer.  Not only is the injury risk huge but when he has been playing, he swings with a much-less controlled swing than he did even in 2004.  With 16 home runs in the books this year, you can probably get a decent package for him if you find a team that is desperately in need of power.  You'll want to wait until he returns from the DL, though, and perhaps wait to bring up his name the day after he hits his next home run.

Alex Gonzalez:  Boston's shortstop is recording a similar season as he did last year with Florida but he's he's just two years removed from a 23 home run season and those who put too much weight in three year averages will see that he averaged more than 15 home runs a season coming into this year.  Don't expect him to play at that level and if you can pick up on a fantasy opponent who thinks that way about his ceiling, move quickly.  He never has been a base-stealer, never hits for average and the power levels of 2003-04 are unlikely to return this year.

Jeff Suppan:  I used to really like his pitching style but he pitched way over his head a year ago and given how consistent he was from 2003-2005, there will be many a buyer out there who thinks that adding him will net them a mid 3's to low 4's pitcher to round out their pitching staff.  I don't think he's going to return to those levels and my current projection reflects that (4.97 projected ERA the rest of the way).  Not only has his control been way off but he's not throwing as hard as he was, not that he was an exceptionally hard thrower to start with.

Odalis Perez:  I had to cave on this one as I had projected a good season and not only has he disappointed but the Dodgers were even answering questions about his potential release last week (which they flatly denied).  I don't know what happened to him but that his spot on the roster, let alone the rotation, is now constantly in jeopardy - he's been back in the bullpen again - means that if you can pick up on any opponent who thinks that all he needs is a change of environment, I'd move on it.  Even if he ends up finishing strong, he's no longer even a medium percentage play now.

Ambiorix Burgos:  He's seemingly regained the closer's role and he had such a good 2005 that there are many who see it as only a matter of time before he returns to that level.  He's a pitcher who constantly makes mistakes high in the strike zone and the Royals are only buying time until they get Mike MacDougal back from the DL.  He's better than he's looked but not much better and there are people who apparently still think his terrible start to this season is only a mirage.  Even if he stayed as the closer, he's not worth having for the remainder of 2006 and his short but solid track record of 2005 makes him a good candidate to sell, even while he's low.

Gustavo Chacin:  That he's on the DL and started terribly makes him as low as can be perceived and yet I know that there are fantasy GMs out there who think he's capable of returning to last year's positive rookie performance.  There are two reasons to move him now and if your league allows you to trade players who are injured, you may want to move quickly.  Firstly, he's going to be out a lot longer than some think and Jays' manager John Gibbons recently confirmed that it will be "at least" a month.  Secondly, he's a poor bet to pitch as he did a year ago.  If you're in a keeper league, you may be reluctant to move him but in general, he's not the player who can most help you for 2006 and you have to consider this - If he doesn't return to the level of 2005, would you actually keep him heading into 2007?  If not, then you also fall into the category that says it's time to make a move.

Jon Lieber:  His track record is solid and like Suppan, will appear attractive to a fantasy team out there who thinks that he would fit nicely as a fourth or fifth starter, despite his bad start.  Unfortunately, the bad start isn't a mirage and the decline has begun this year.  I'm projecting an ERA around 5.00 the rest of the way, which is much worse than his track record would imply or what opponents will probably think of him.

Jason LaRue:  A terrible start to 2006 isn't his only problem.  The reason to move him now is not only that his average is unlikely to rebound to the established levels of the previous few years but because he's lost his job to David Ross.  If you can find an opponent desperate for a catcher who puts too much weight in track records and not enough in whether a guy even has a spot in the lineup, don't hesitate to move him.

Todd Jones:  He's been recently getting the dreaded "vote of confidence" from his manager and no matter what he did a year ago, he's not the same pitcher and worse, for his short-term future, he's surrounded by at least two other closer candidates, if not more.  Add to his playing for a team that's a surprise contender this year and you have all the ingredients for a player who's not likely to bounce back or maintain the closer's role much longer.

Adam Everett:  I'm listing him for several reasons.  First, his track record for the previous few years has been pretty solid in that he could steal you some bases, hit several home runs and not completely destroy a team's average.  The reality is that his this year, his running game has disappeared, the power has been below even his previous performance and he now favors a more controlled but slower swing that's not translating to base hits (his average is .227 at press time).  I don't expect anywhere close to a return to form even though he can hit a bit better and run a little more than he has.  Those 21 steals of a year ago are going to be hard to resist for someone out there.