Good Luck, Bad Luck
published Friday, June 22, 2007

This season, we've introduced a new report designed to highlight performances that may be outside of a player's long-term sustainable ability. As we said, this report will run most Friday evenings up until early September and, if you haven't already, we encourage you to check out the first column in the series for details on what the categories mean, how the lists are calculated and how to properly use them.

All data is through play completed Thursday.

Highest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 73 at bats

If player has performed above typical league leading levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 35% league-leading type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be benefiting from some lucky singles, though in the long run, the best singles hitters should eventually end up on this list.

MARLON BYRD, TEX, 88 AB, 38% 1B/BIP Rate, .364 (.339)
OMAR INFANTE, DET, 94 AB, 35% 1B/BIP Rate, .319 (.318)
REGGIE WILLITS, LAA, 184 AB, 34% 1B/BIP Rate, .337
WILLIE HARRIS, ATL, 121 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .380
TONY GWYNN, MIL, 83 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .301
MATT DIAZ, ATL, 151 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .344
WILLY TAVERAS, COL, 224 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .313
ICHIRO SUZUKI, SEA, 293 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .358
LUIS CASTILLO, MIN, 239 AB, 30% 1B/BIP Rate, .305
CARLOS GOMEZ, NYM, 76 AB, 29% 1B/BIP Rate, .263

Lowest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 73 at bats

If player has performed below typical league-worst levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 15% league-trailing type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be experiencing some bad luck in terms of how many singles are dropping in.

JASON LANE, HOU, 79 AB, 9% 1B/BIP Rate, .165 (.222)
GREGG ZAUN, TOR, 77 AB, 11% 1B/BIP Rate, .208 (.244)
JASON LARUE, KC, 81 AB, 12% 1B/BIP Rate, .173 (.193)
GEOFF BLUM, SD, 88 AB, 12% 1B/BIP Rate, .182 (.203)
FRANK CATALANOTTO, TEX, 119 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .202 (.224)
RICHIE SEXSON, SEA, 238 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .206 (.219)
DIONER NAVARRO, TB, 171 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .170 (.183)
ROD BARAJAS, PHI, 92 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .217 (.229)
ANDRUW JONES, ATL, 263 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .202 (.211)
WILSON BETEMIT, LAD, 116 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .198 (.207)

Top Contact Rates, minimum 73 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact more often than is sustainable (which usually leads to a higher batting average), though eventually the best contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

DAVID ECKSTEIN, STL, 192 AB, 96% Rate
STEVE FINLEY, COL, 94 AB, 96% Rate
PLACIDO POLANCO, DET, 274 AB, 95% Rate
LUIS RODRIGUEZ, MIN, 74 AB, 93% Rate
JASON TYNER, MIN, 117 AB, 93% Rate
JUAN PIERRE, LAD, 294 AB, 93% Rate
JEFF CIRILLO, MIN, 95 AB, 93% Rate
PAUL LO DUCA, NYM, 227 AB, 93% Rate
LUIS CASTILLO, MIN, 239 AB, 92% Rate
JAY PAYTON, BAL, 185 AB, 92% Rate

Bottom Contact Rates, minimum 73 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact less often than they actually can (which usually leads to a lower batting average), though the worst contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

JACK CUST, OAK, 123 AB, 59% Rate
WILY MO PENA, BOS, 96 AB, 60% Rate
RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 125 AB, 61% Rate
RYAN HOWARD, PHI, 190 AB, 63% Rate
JASON LARUE, KC, 81 AB, 63% Rate
RUSSELL BRANYAN, SD, 81 AB, 63% Rate
ADAM DUNN, CIN, 254 AB, 63% Rate
JOE BORCHARD, FLO, 154 AB, 64% Rate
ROB BOWEN, CHC, 85 AB, 65% Rate
DAVE ROSS, CIN, 167 AB, 65% Rate

HIGHEST BABIP (minimum 219 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be experiencing a lot of bad luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

JAE SEO, TB, 248 BFP, .378 BABIP
FELIX HERNANDEZ, SEA, 273 BFP, .372 BABIP
KEVIN MILLWOOD, TEX, 267 BFP, .356 BABIP
ZACH DUKE, PIT, 370 BFP, .352 BABIP
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 286 BFP, .351 BABIP
ZACK GREINKE, KC, 263 BFP, .351 BABIP
PAUL BYRD, CLE, 325 BFP, .341 BABIP
VICENTE PADILLA, TEX, 385 BFP, .340 BABIP
FREDDY GARCIA, PHI, 264 BFP, .339 BABIP
MIGUEL BATISTA, SEA, 380 BFP, .337 BABIP

LOWEST BABIP (minimum 219 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be benefiting from some good luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

ORLANDO HERNANDEZ, NYM, 243 BFP, .213 BABIP
DAN HAREN, OAK, 429 BFP, .213 BABIP
SHAUN MARCUM, TOR, 257 BFP, .214 BABIP
RICH HILL, CHC, 355 BFP, .218 BABIP
JASON MARQUIS, CHC, 379 BFP, .224 BABIP
JEREMY GUTHRIE, BAL, 310 BFP, .230 BABIP
OLIVER PEREZ, NYM, 368 BFP, .234 BABIP
JORGE SOSA, NYM, 221 BFP, .237 BABIP
STEVE TRACHSEL, BAL, 370 BFP, .237 BABIP
CHRIS YOUNG, SD, 345 BFP, .243 BABIP

Pitchers with ERA Worse Than ERMA (minimum 219 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching better than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

TIMOTHY LINCECUM, SF, 226 BFP, 5.88 (3.98)
ANTHONY REYES, STL, 243 BFP, 6.35 (4.88)
DUSTIN MCGOWAN, TOR, 222 BFP, 5.68 (4.26)
KIP WELLS, STL, 364 BFP, 6.75 (5.37)
KAMERON LOE, TEX, 340 BFP, 6.34 (5.05)
JEREMY SOWERS, CLE, 283 BFP, 6.93 (5.78)
CHA SEUNG BAEK, SEA, 285 BFP, 5.74 (4.62)
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 286 BFP, 7.85 (6.75)
JASON SIMONTACCHI, WAS, 231 BFP, 6.32 (5.26)
JORGE SOSA, NYM, 221 BFP, 4.05 (3.04)

Pitchers with ERA Better Than ERMA (minimum 219 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching worse than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

SERGIO MITRE, FLO, 290 BFP, 2.34 (3.64)
BRIAN BURRES, BAL, 229 BFP, 2.94 (3.98)
DOUG DAVIS, ARI, 404 BFP, 4.26 (5.29)
JOHN LACKEY, LAA, 408 BFP, 2.96 (3.88)
JUSTIN VERLANDER, DET, 377 BFP, 2.90 (3.80)
CHUCK JAMES, ATL, 360 BFP, 4.11 (5.00)
BRAD THOMPSON, STL, 302 BFP, 4.86 (5.67)
MIKE MAROTH, DET, 346 BFP, 5.06 (5.86)
JOHN DANKS, CHW, 317 BFP, 4.61 (5.38)
CLAUDIO VARGAS, MIL, 322 BFP, 4.09 (4.83)