Good Luck, Bad Luck
published Friday, June 29, 2007

This season, we've introduced a new report designed to highlight performances that may be outside of a player's long-term sustainable ability. As we said, this report will run most Friday evenings up until early September and, if you haven't already, we encourage you to check out the first column in the series for details on what the categories mean, how the lists are calculated and how to properly use them.

All data is through play completed Thursday.

Highest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 80 at bats

If player has performed above typical league leading levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 35% league-leading type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be benefiting from some lucky singles, though in the long run, the best singles hitters should eventually end up on this list.

MARLON BYRD, TEX, 112 AB, 36% 1B/BIP Rate, .366 (.359)
OMAR INFANTE, DET, 98 AB, 35% 1B/BIP Rate, .316
WILLIE HARRIS, ATL, 129 AB, 34% 1B/BIP Rate, .380
ICHIRO SUZUKI, SEA, 313 AB, 34% 1B/BIP Rate, .364
TONY GWYNN, MIL, 83 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .301
REGGIE WILLITS, LAA, 208 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .337
WILLY TAVERAS, COL, 253 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .312
MATT DIAZ, ATL, 167 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .341
WILLIE BLOOMQUIST, SEA, 85 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .282
JOSH PHELPS, PIT, 87 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .276

Lowest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 80 at bats

If player has performed below typical league-worst levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 15% league-trailing type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be experiencing some bad luck in terms of how many singles are dropping in.

FRANK CATALANOTTO, TEX, 137 AB, 12% 1B/BIP Rate, .197 (.225)
RICHIE SEXSON, SEA, 258 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .209 (.225)
WILSON BETEMIT, LAD, 123 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .195 (.208)
KHALIL GREENE, SD, 281 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .242 (.253)
ANDRUW JONES, ATL, 282 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .199 (.208)
GEOFF BLUM, SD, 95 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .189 (.199)
JASON LARUE, KC, 92 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .174 (.180)
LUIS RODRIGUEZ, MIN, 83 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .169 (.177)
ROD BARAJAS, PHI, 96 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .219 (.224)
ELIJAH DUKES, TB, 184 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .190 (.196)

Top Contact Rates, minimum 80 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact more often than is sustainable (which usually leads to a higher batting average), though eventually the best contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

DAVID ECKSTEIN, STL, 192 AB, 96% Rate
STEVE FINLEY, COL, 94 AB, 96% Rate
PLACIDO POLANCO, DET, 297 AB, 95% Rate
LUIS RODRIGUEZ, MIN, 83 AB, 94% Rate
JUAN PIERRE, LAD, 327 AB, 93% Rate
CESAR IZTURIS, CHC, 178 AB, 92% Rate
CASEY KOTCHMAN, LAA, 216 AB, 92% Rate
JASON TYNER, MIN, 127 AB, 92% Rate
ORLANDO CABRERA, LAA, 314 AB, 92% Rate
JAY PAYTON, BAL, 200 AB, 92% Rate

Bottom Contact Rates, minimum 80 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact less often than they actually can (which usually leads to a lower batting average), though the worst contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 137 AB, 60% Rate
JACK CUST, OAK, 143 AB, 61% Rate
WILY MO PENA, BOS, 103 AB, 61% Rate
RYAN HOWARD, PHI, 214 AB, 62% Rate
JASON LARUE, KC, 92 AB, 62% Rate
RUSSELL BRANYAN, SD, 94 AB, 63% Rate
ROB BOWEN, CHC, 95 AB, 64% Rate
JOE BORCHARD, FLO, 158 AB, 65% Rate
ADAM DUNN, CIN, 277 AB, 65% Rate
DAVE ROSS, CIN, 182 AB, 66% Rate

HIGHEST BABIP (minimum 240 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be experiencing a lot of bad luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

FELIX HERNANDEZ, SEA, 302 BFP, .383 BABIP
JAE SEO, TB, 248 BFP, .378 BABIP
ZACH DUKE, PIT, 418 BFP, .371 BABIP
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 309 BFP, .357 BABIP
KEVIN MILLWOOD, TEX, 323 BFP, .349 BABIP
CASEY FOSSUM, TB, 294 BFP, .347 BABIP
VICENTE PADILLA, TEX, 385 BFP, .340 BABIP
ZACK GREINKE, KC, 275 BFP, .340 BABIP
FREDDY GARCIA, PHI, 264 BFP, .339 BABIP
PAUL BYRD, CLE, 383 BFP, .338 BABIP

LOWEST BABIP (minimum 240 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be benefiting from some good luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

SHAUN MARCUM, TOR, 286 BFP, .216 BABIP
DAN HAREN, OAK, 459 BFP, .220 BABIP
ORLANDO HERNANDEZ, NYM, 272 BFP, .221 BABIP
RICH HILL, CHC, 379 BFP, .228 BABIP
JASON MARQUIS, CHC, 406 BFP, .232 BABIP
CHRIS YOUNG, SD, 370 BFP, .235 BABIP
OLIVER PEREZ, NYM, 395 BFP, .237 BABIP
JEREMY GUTHRIE, BAL, 335 BFP, .238 BABIP
STEVE TRACHSEL, BAL, 393 BFP, .245 BABIP
JUSTIN VERLANDER, DET, 404 BFP, .245 BABIP

Pitchers with ERA Worse Than ERMA (minimum 240 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching better than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

TIMOTHY LINCECUM, SF, 254 BFP, 5.19 (3.66)
ANTHONY REYES, STL, 286 BFP, 6.40 (5.01)
DUSTIN MCGOWAN, TOR, 251 BFP, 4.82 (3.47)
KIP WELLS, STL, 385 BFP, 6.45 (5.27)
JEREMY SOWERS, CLE, 283 BFP, 6.93 (5.78)
CHA SEUNG BAEK, SEA, 285 BFP, 5.74 (4.62)
KAMERON LOE, TEX, 369 BFP, 6.02 (5.05)
ROY HALLADAY, TOR, 395 BFP, 4.25 (3.42)
KYLE DAVIES, ATL, 346 BFP, 5.42 (4.62)
JASON SIMONTACCHI, WAS, 252 BFP, 5.81 (5.03)

Pitchers with ERA Better Than ERMA (minimum 240 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching worse than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

DOUG DAVIS, ARI, 433 BFP, 4.16 (5.42)
SERGIO MITRE, FLO, 318 BFP, 2.75 (3.94)
BRIAN BURRES, BAL, 250 BFP, 3.36 (4.32)
JUSTIN VERLANDER, DET, 404 BFP, 2.78 (3.71)
JOHN LACKEY, LAA, 441 BFP, 2.99 (3.85)
CLAUDIO VARGAS, MIL, 346 BFP, 4.29 (5.10)
MICAH B OWINGS, ARI, 307 BFP, 3.79 (4.54)
MIKE MAROTH, STL, 371 BFP, 4.73 (5.46)
JOHN DANKS, CHW, 339 BFP, 4.78 (5.50)
CHAD GAUDIN, OAK, 409 BFP, 3.14 (3.80)