Good Luck, Bad Luck
published Friday, July 6, 2007

This season, we've introduced a new report designed to highlight performances that may be outside of a player's long-term sustainable ability. As we said, this report will run most Friday evenings up until early September and, if you haven't already, we encourage you to check out the first column in the series for details on what the categories mean, how the lists are calculated and how to properly use them.

All data is through play completed Thursday.

Highest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 87 at bats

If player has performed above typical league leading levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 35% league-leading type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be benefiting from some lucky singles, though in the long run, the best singles hitters should eventually end up on this list.

MARLON BYRD, TEX, 134 AB, 35% 1B/BIP Rate, .388
WILLIE HARRIS, ATL, 143 AB, 34% 1B/BIP Rate, .364
ICHIRO SUZUKI, SEA, 342 AB, 34% 1B/BIP Rate, .365
OMAR INFANTE, DET, 103 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .301
MATT DIAZ, ATL, 182 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .352
WILLY TAVERAS, COL, 266 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .320
WILLIE BLOOMQUIST, SEA, 95 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .284
REGGIE WILLITS, LAA, 219 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .324
JOSH PHELPS, PIT, 87 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .276
BEN BROUSSARD, SEA, 106 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .311

Lowest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 87 at bats

If player has performed below typical league-worst levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 15% league-trailing type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be experiencing some bad luck in terms of how many singles are dropping in.

ROD BARAJAS, PHI, 104 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .212 (.225)
GEOFF BLUM, SD, 99 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .192 (.205)
RICHIE SEXSON, SEA, 276 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .210 (.222)
WILSON BETEMIT, LAD, 130 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .208 (.218)
ANDRUW JONES, ATL, 311 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .199 (.208)
DAN UGGLA, FLO, 349 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .249 (.257)
LUKE SCOTT, HOU, 212 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .231 (.239)
BRAD WILKERSON, TEX, 174 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .230 (.236)
ELIJAH DUKES, TB, 184 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .190 (.196)
JOHN BUCK, KC, 184 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .245 (.249)

Top Contact Rates, minimum 87 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact more often than is sustainable (which usually leads to a higher batting average), though eventually the best contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

DAVID ECKSTEIN, STL, 192 AB, 96% Rate
STEVE FINLEY, COL, 94 AB, 96% Rate
PLACIDO POLANCO, DET, 323 AB, 95% Rate
JUAN PIERRE, LAD, 357 AB, 94% Rate
PAUL LO DUCA, NYM, 269 AB, 93% Rate
LUIS RODRIGUEZ, MIN, 92 AB, 92% Rate
CESAR IZTURIS, CHC, 185 AB, 92% Rate
LUIS CASTILLO, MIN, 280 AB, 92% Rate
JEFF CIRILLO, MIN, 121 AB, 92% Rate
YUNIESKY BETANCOURT, SEA, 288 AB, 92% Rate

Bottom Contact Rates, minimum 87 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact less often than they actually can (which usually leads to a lower batting average), though the worst contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 146 AB, 60% Rate
JACK CUST, OAK, 170 AB, 60% Rate
RUSSELL BRANYAN, SD, 102 AB, 61% Rate
WILY MO PENA, BOS, 113 AB, 61% Rate
JASON LARUE, KC, 98 AB, 62% Rate
RYAN HOWARD, PHI, 240 AB, 63% Rate
ROB BOWEN, CHC, 105 AB, 63% Rate
JOSH FIELDS, CHW, 97 AB, 63% Rate
ADAM DUNN, CIN, 298 AB, 65% Rate
B.J. UPTON, TB, 200 AB, 66% Rate

HIGHEST BABIP (minimum 261 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be experiencing a lot of bad luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

ZACH DUKE, PIT, 418 BFP, .371 BABIP
FELIX HERNANDEZ, SEA, 329 BFP, .367 BABIP
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 360 BFP, .362 BABIP
BRETT TOMKO, LAD, 300 BFP, .354 BABIP
CASEY FOSSUM, TB, 303 BFP, .343 BABIP
VICENTE PADILLA, TEX, 385 BFP, .340 BABIP
FREDDY GARCIA, PHI, 264 BFP, .339 BABIP
SCOTT KAZMIR, TB, 476 BFP, .336 BABIP
JASON SIMONTACCHI, WAS, 270 BFP, .335 BABIP
KEVIN MILLWOOD, TEX, 352 BFP, .335 BABIP

LOWEST BABIP (minimum 261 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be benefiting from some good luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

SHAUN MARCUM, TOR, 315 BFP, .219 BABIP
ORLANDO HERNANDEZ, NYM, 319 BFP, .221 BABIP
JASON MARQUIS, CHC, 431 BFP, .228 BABIP
JEREMY GUTHRIE, BAL, 363 BFP, .229 BABIP
DAN HAREN, OAK, 486 BFP, .231 BABIP
OLIVER PEREZ, NYM, 395 BFP, .237 BABIP
JUSTIN VERLANDER, DET, 457 BFP, .244 BABIP
JORGE SOSA, NYM, 267 BFP, .245 BABIP
JOHN MAINE, NYM, 447 BFP, .247 BABIP
BYUNG-HYUN KIM, FLO, 269 BFP, .247 BABIP

Pitchers with ERA Worse Than ERMA (minimum 261 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching better than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

ANTHONY REYES, STL, 286 BFP, 6.40 (5.01)
TIMOTHY LINCECUM, SF, 278 BFP, 4.64 (3.27)
DUSTIN MCGOWAN, TOR, 304 BFP, 4.64 (3.39)
JEREMY SOWERS, CLE, 283 BFP, 6.93 (5.78)
CHA SEUNG BAEK, SEA, 285 BFP, 5.74 (4.62)
KIP WELLS, STL, 412 BFP, 6.05 (5.06)
KYLE DAVIES, ATL, 360 BFP, 5.85 (4.95)
JASON SIMONTACCHI, WAS, 270 BFP, 6.27 (5.37)
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 360 BFP, 7.27 (6.42)
KAMERON LOE, TEX, 394 BFP, 5.72 (4.92)

Pitchers with ERA Better Than ERMA (minimum 261 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching worse than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

DOUG DAVIS, ARI, 493 BFP, 4.26 (5.36)
SERGIO MITRE, FLO, 342 BFP, 2.88 (3.76)
JUSTIN VERLANDER, DET, 457 BFP, 3.14 (3.88)
JOHN LACKEY, LAA, 469 BFP, 3.03 (3.75)
SHAWN CHACON, PIT, 284 BFP, 3.76 (4.45)
CHUCK JAMES, ATL, 431 BFP, 3.96 (4.61)
CHAD DURBIN, DET, 369 BFP, 4.25 (4.89)
FREDDY GARCIA, PHI, 264 BFP, 5.90 (6.52)
MIKE MAROTH, STL, 387 BFP, 5.07 (5.68)
JOHN SMOLTZ, ATL, 446 BFP, 3.07 (3.66)