Good Luck, Bad Luck
published Friday, July 13, 2007

This season, we've introduced a new report designed to highlight performances that may be outside of a player's long-term sustainable ability. As we said, this report will run most Friday evenings up until early September and, if you haven't already, we encourage you to check out the first column in the series for details on what the categories mean, how the lists are calculated and how to properly use them.

All data is through play completed Thursday.

Highest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 90 at bats

If player has performed above typical league leading levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 35% league-leading type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be benefiting from some lucky singles, though in the long run, the best singles hitters should eventually end up on this list.

MARLON BYRD, TEX, 143 AB, 35% 1B/BIP Rate, .378
TONY GWYNN, MIL, 91 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .297
MATT DIAZ, ATL, 187 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .353
WILLY TAVERAS, COL, 271 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .325
ICHIRO SUZUKI, SEA, 361 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .355
JOSH PHELPS, PIT, 91 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .275
WILLIE HARRIS, ATL, 152 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .342
REGGIE WILLITS, LAA, 231 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .312
WILLIE BLOOMQUIST, SEA, 103 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .272
TODD LINDEN, FLO, 92 AB, 30% 1B/BIP Rate, .228

Lowest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 90 at bats

If player has performed below typical league-worst levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 15% league-trailing type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be experiencing some bad luck in terms of how many singles are dropping in.

RICHIE SEXSON, SEA, 286 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .203 (.218)
WILSON BETEMIT, LAD, 131 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .206 (.216)
LUKE SCOTT, HOU, 217 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .226 (.236)
JOHN BUCK, KC, 192 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .245 (.255)
ROD BARAJAS, PHI, 108 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .213 (.221)
JASON LARUE, KC, 101 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .188 (.193)
ELIJAH DUKES, TB, 184 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .190 (.196)
DAN UGGLA, FLO, 361 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .247 (.251)
DIONER NAVARRO, TB, 211 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .175 (.181)
BRAD WILKERSON, TEX, 184 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .228 (.232)

Top Contact Rates, minimum 90 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact more often than is sustainable (which usually leads to a higher batting average), though eventually the best contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

DAVID ECKSTEIN, STL, 192 AB, 96% Rate
STEVE FINLEY, COL, 94 AB, 96% Rate
PLACIDO POLANCO, DET, 331 AB, 95% Rate
JUAN PIERRE, LAD, 373 AB, 94% Rate
JEFF CIRILLO, MIN, 128 AB, 92% Rate
LUIS CASTILLO, MIN, 299 AB, 92% Rate
PAUL LO DUCA, NYM, 281 AB, 92% Rate
JACK WILSON, PIT, 297 AB, 92% Rate
KENJI JOHJIMA, SEA, 261 AB, 92% Rate
MARK KOTSAY, OAK, 130 AB, 92% Rate

Bottom Contact Rates, minimum 90 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact less often than they actually can (which usually leads to a lower batting average), though the worst contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

JACK CUST, OAK, 183 AB, 59% Rate
WILY MO PENA, BOS, 120 AB, 59% Rate
RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 156 AB, 60% Rate
RUSSELL BRANYAN, SD, 107 AB, 61% Rate
RYAN HOWARD, PHI, 254 AB, 62% Rate
JASON LARUE, KC, 101 AB, 62% Rate
ROB BOWEN, CHC, 109 AB, 64% Rate
TODD LINDEN, FLO, 92 AB, 65% Rate
JOSH FIELDS, CHW, 115 AB, 65% Rate
ADAM DUNN, CIN, 309 AB, 65% Rate

HIGHEST BABIP (minimum 270 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be experiencing a lot of bad luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

ZACH DUKE, PIT, 418 BFP, .371 BABIP
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 362 BFP, .361 BABIP
BRETT TOMKO, LAD, 306 BFP, .355 BABIP
JEFF WEAVER, SEA, 274 BFP, .351 BABIP
CASEY FOSSUM, TB, 315 BFP, .350 BABIP
FELIX HERNANDEZ, SEA, 387 BFP, .348 BABIP
BARTOLO COLON, LAA, 362 BFP, .346 BABIP
VICENTE PADILLA, TEX, 385 BFP, .340 BABIP
SCOTT KAZMIR, TB, 501 BFP, .339 BABIP
DOUG DAVIS, ARI, 493 BFP, .334 BABIP

LOWEST BABIP (minimum 270 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be benefiting from some good luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

ORLANDO HERNANDEZ, NYM, 343 BFP, .221 BABIP
DAN HAREN, OAK, 515 BFP, .232 BABIP
SHAUN MARCUM, TOR, 335 BFP, .232 BABIP
JASON MARQUIS, CHC, 456 BFP, .235 BABIP
OLIVER PEREZ, NYM, 395 BFP, .237 BABIP
JEREMY GUTHRIE, BAL, 412 BFP, .239 BABIP
JUSTIN VERLANDER, DET, 457 BFP, .244 BABIP
JOHN MAINE, NYM, 447 BFP, .247 BABIP
RICH HILL, CHC, 425 BFP, .247 BABIP
CHRIS YOUNG, SD, 421 BFP, .251 BABIP

Pitchers with ERA Worse Than ERMA (minimum 270 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching better than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

ANTHONY REYES, STL, 286 BFP, 6.40 (5.01)
DUSTIN MCGOWAN, TOR, 304 BFP, 4.64 (3.39)
TIMOTHY LINCECUM, SF, 304 BFP, 4.63 (3.38)
JEREMY SOWERS, CLE, 283 BFP, 6.93 (5.78)
CHA SEUNG BAEK, SEA, 285 BFP, 5.74 (4.62)
JEFF WEAVER, SEA, 274 BFP, 6.33 (5.43)
BRANDON MCCARTHY, TEX, 273 BFP, 5.70 (4.80)
KIP WELLS, STL, 421 BFP, 5.92 (5.05)
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 362 BFP, 7.23 (6.39)
KYLE DAVIES, ATL, 384 BFP, 5.55 (4.71)

Pitchers with ERA Better Than ERMA (minimum 270 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching worse than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

DOUG DAVIS, ARI, 493 BFP, 4.26 (5.36)
SERGIO MITRE, FLO, 374 BFP, 2.85 (3.77)
JOHN LACKEY, LAA, 498 BFP, 2.91 (3.65)
JUSTIN VERLANDER, DET, 457 BFP, 3.14 (3.88)
MIKE MAROTH, STL, 411 BFP, 4.90 (5.57)
SHAWN CHACON, PIT, 294 BFP, 3.59 (4.25)
CHUCK JAMES, ATL, 431 BFP, 3.96 (4.61)
CHAD DURBIN, DET, 378 BFP, 4.26 (4.88)
JOHN SMOLTZ, ATL, 446 BFP, 3.07 (3.66)
CLAUDIO VARGAS, MIL, 371 BFP, 4.52 (5.05)