Good Luck, Bad Luck
published Friday, July 20, 2007

This season, we've introduced a new report designed to highlight performances that may be outside of a player's long-term sustainable ability. As we said, this report will run most Friday evenings up until early September and, if you haven't already, we encourage you to check out the first column in the series for details on what the categories mean, how the lists are calculated and how to properly use them.

All data is through play completed Thursday.

Highest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 97 at bats

If player has performed above typical league leading levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 35% league-leading type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be benefiting from some lucky singles, though in the long run, the best singles hitters should eventually end up on this list.

MATT KEMP, LAD, 107 AB, 37% 1B/BIP Rate, .383 (.368)
MARLON BYRD, TEX, 174 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .351
MATT DIAZ, ATL, 204 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .358
ICHIRO SUZUKI, SEA, 383 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .352
WILLIE BLOOMQUIST, SEA, 107 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .290
WILLY TAVERAS, COL, 282 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .319
WILLIE HARRIS, ATL, 175 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .326
B.J. UPTON, TB, 217 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .332
JAMES LONEY, LAD, 107 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .374
TONY GWYNN, MIL, 104 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .288

Lowest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 97 at bats

If player has performed below typical league-worst levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 15% league-trailing type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be experiencing some bad luck in terms of how many singles are dropping in.

ERIC HINSKE, BOS, 97 AB, 12% 1B/BIP Rate, .196 (.217)
RICHIE SEXSON, SEA, 301 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .199 (.216)
JOHN BUCK, KC, 200 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .245 (.259)
LUKE SCOTT, HOU, 231 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .229 (.241)
JASON LARUE, KC, 110 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .173 (.181)
BRAD WILKERSON, TEX, 200 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .225 (.234)
ELIJAH DUKES, TB, 184 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .190 (.196)
KHALIL GREENE, SD, 339 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .236 (.241)
RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 168 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .167 (.170)
DAN UGGLA, FLO, 381 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .244 (.248)

Top Contact Rates, minimum 97 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact more often than is sustainable (which usually leads to a higher batting average), though eventually the best contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

DAVID ECKSTEIN, STL, 213 AB, 95% Rate
PLACIDO POLANCO, DET, 348 AB, 95% Rate
JUAN PIERRE, LAD, 403 AB, 94% Rate
JAVIER VALENTIN, CIN, 100 AB, 93% Rate
LUIS CASTILLO, MIN, 324 AB, 93% Rate
JEFF CIRILLO, MIN, 139 AB, 92% Rate
PAUL LO DUCA, NYM, 301 AB, 92% Rate
KEVIN MENCH, MIL, 183 AB, 92% Rate
MARK KOTSAY, OAK, 146 AB, 92% Rate
CESAR IZTURIS, CHC, 191 AB, 92% Rate

Bottom Contact Rates, minimum 97 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact less often than they actually can (which usually leads to a lower batting average), though the worst contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

WILY MO PENA, BOS, 127 AB, 58% Rate
JACK CUST, OAK, 198 AB, 59% Rate
JASON LARUE, KC, 110 AB, 60% Rate
RUSSELL BRANYAN, SD, 113 AB, 60% Rate
RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 168 AB, 62% Rate
RYAN HOWARD, PHI, 281 AB, 62% Rate
ROB BOWEN, CHC, 113 AB, 64% Rate
TODD LINDEN, FLO, 97 AB, 65% Rate
JOSH FIELDS, CHW, 137 AB, 65% Rate
ADAM DUNN, CIN, 331 AB, 66% Rate

HIGHEST BABIP (minimum 291 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be experiencing a lot of bad luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

ZACH DUKE, PIT, 418 BFP, .371 BABIP
JEFF WEAVER, SEA, 302 BFP, .360 BABIP
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 389 BFP, .355 BABIP
CASEY FOSSUM, TB, 330 BFP, .353 BABIP
FELIX HERNANDEZ, SEA, 413 BFP, .352 BABIP
BARTOLO COLON, LAA, 386 BFP, .348 BABIP
BRETT TOMKO, LAD, 328 BFP, .346 BABIP
VICENTE PADILLA, TEX, 385 BFP, .340 BABIP
JASON SIMONTACCHI, WAS, 322 BFP, .336 BABIP
ZACK GREINKE, KC, 315 BFP, .335 BABIP

LOWEST BABIP (minimum 291 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be benefiting from some good luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

ORLANDO HERNANDEZ, NYM, 368 BFP, .212 BABIP
JASON BERGMANN, WAS, 301 BFP, .234 BABIP
DAN HAREN, OAK, 542 BFP, .237 BABIP
CHRIS YOUNG, SD, 467 BFP, .238 BABIP
RICH HILL, CHC, 454 BFP, .238 BABIP
SHAUN MARCUM, TOR, 384 BFP, .240 BABIP
JEREMY GUTHRIE, BAL, 437 BFP, .241 BABIP
OLIVER PEREZ, NYM, 420 BFP, .242 BABIP
JASON MARQUIS, CHC, 478 BFP, .244 BABIP
JORGE SOSA, NYM, 291 BFP, .248 BABIP

Pitchers with ERA Worse Than ERMA (minimum 291 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching better than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

DUSTIN MCGOWAN, TOR, 356 BFP, 4.84 (3.66)
JASON BERGMANN, WAS, 301 BFP, 4.46 (3.34)
TIMOTHY LINCECUM, SF, 329 BFP, 4.37 (3.33)
JEFF WEAVER, SEA, 302 BFP, 6.82 (5.84)
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 389 BFP, 7.14 (6.25)
KYLE DAVIES, ATL, 389 BFP, 5.76 (4.92)
BRANDON MCCARTHY, TEX, 300 BFP, 5.59 (4.77)
KIP WELLS, STL, 461 BFP, 5.75 (4.96)
JORGE SOSA, NYM, 291 BFP, 3.84 (3.07)
JASON HIRSH, COL, 434 BFP, 4.90 (4.19)

Pitchers with ERA Better Than ERMA (minimum 291 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching worse than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

DOUG DAVIS, ARI, 543 BFP, 4.13 (5.20)
SERGIO MITRE, FLO, 431 BFP, 2.82 (3.79)
BRAD THOMPSON, STL, 408 BFP, 5.06 (5.85)
SHAWN CHACON, PIT, 309 BFP, 3.58 (4.35)
LENNY DINARDO, OAK, 295 BFP, 2.51 (3.26)
JOHN LACKEY, LAA, 526 BFP, 2.98 (3.69)
CHUCK JAMES, ATL, 452 BFP, 3.73 (4.43)
CHAD DURBIN, DET, 393 BFP, 4.05 (4.75)
JOHN SMOLTZ, ATL, 473 BFP, 2.87 (3.51)
JUSTIN VERLANDER, DET, 488 BFP, 3.26 (3.88)