Good Luck, Bad Luck
published Friday, July 27, 2007

This season, we've introduced a new report designed to highlight performances that may be outside of a player's long-term sustainable ability. As we said, this report will run most Friday evenings up until early September and, if you haven't already, we encourage you to check out the first column in the series for details on what the categories mean, how the lists are calculated and how to properly use them.

All data is through play completed Thursday.

Highest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 104 at bats

If player has performed above typical league leading levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 35% league-leading type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be benefiting from some lucky singles, though in the long run, the best singles hitters should eventually end up on this list.

MATT KEMP, LAD, 123 AB, 35% 1B/BIP Rate, .350
WILLIE BLOOMQUIST, SEA, 113 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .292
MARLON BYRD, TEX, 200 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .350
MATT DIAZ, ATL, 213 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .347
ICHIRO SUZUKI, SEA, 416 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .344
B.J. UPTON, TB, 247 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .340
WILLY TAVERAS, COL, 307 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .309
RUBEN GOTAY, NYM, 114 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .333
WILLIE HARRIS, ATL, 204 AB, 30% 1B/BIP Rate, .319
TONY GWYNN, MIL, 113 AB, 30% 1B/BIP Rate, .274

Lowest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 104 at bats

If player has performed below typical league-worst levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 15% league-trailing type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be experiencing some bad luck in terms of how many singles are dropping in.

ERIC HINSKE, BOS, 112 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .205 (.223)
JOHN BUCK, KC, 220 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .232 (.251)
JASON LARUE, KC, 118 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .161 (.175)
RICHIE SEXSON, SEA, 331 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .205 (.219)
RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 180 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .156 (.166)
ROD BARAJAS, PHI, 115 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .209 (.216)
LUKE SCOTT, HOU, 239 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .234 (.240)
ELIJAH DUKES, TB, 184 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .190 (.196)
KHALIL GREENE, SD, 366 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .232 (.238)
JERMAINE DYE, CHW, 322 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .227 (.231)

Top Contact Rates, minimum 104 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact more often than is sustainable (which usually leads to a higher batting average), though eventually the best contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

DAVID ECKSTEIN, STL, 232 AB, 95% Rate
PLACIDO POLANCO, DET, 374 AB, 95% Rate
JUAN PIERRE, LAD, 430 AB, 94% Rate
LUIS CASTILLO, MIN, 343 AB, 93% Rate
PAUL LO DUCA, NYM, 319 AB, 92% Rate
JEFF CIRILLO, MIN, 145 AB, 92% Rate
KEVIN MENCH, MIL, 209 AB, 92% Rate
MARK KOTSAY, OAK, 164 AB, 92% Rate
CESAR IZTURIS, PIT, 199 AB, 92% Rate
JOSE VIDRO, SEA, 348 AB, 91% Rate

Bottom Contact Rates, minimum 104 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact less often than they actually can (which usually leads to a lower batting average), though the worst contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

JACK CUST, OAK, 214 AB, 58% Rate
JASON LARUE, KC, 118 AB, 60% Rate
WILY MO PENA, BOS, 137 AB, 61% Rate
RUSSELL BRANYAN, SD, 122 AB, 61% Rate
RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 180 AB, 62% Rate
RYAN HOWARD, PHI, 303 AB, 63% Rate
ROB BOWEN, OAK, 115 AB, 63% Rate
TODD LINDEN, FLO, 111 AB, 66% Rate
ADAM DUNN, CIN, 357 AB, 66% Rate
JOE BORCHARD, FLO, 175 AB, 66% Rate

HIGHEST BABIP (minimum 312 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be experiencing a lot of bad luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

ZACH DUKE, PIT, 418 BFP, .371 BABIP
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 433 BFP, .355 BABIP
BARTOLO COLON, LAA, 394 BFP, .354 BABIP
CASEY FOSSUM, TB, 341 BFP, .353 BABIP
FELIX HERNANDEZ, SEA, 442 BFP, .350 BABIP
VICENTE PADILLA, TEX, 385 BFP, .340 BABIP
BRETT TOMKO, LAD, 352 BFP, .339 BABIP
JASON SIMONTACCHI, WAS, 322 BFP, .336 BABIP
SCOTT OLSEN, FLO, 550 BFP, .332 BABIP
JEFF WEAVER, SEA, 361 BFP, .332 BABIP

LOWEST BABIP (minimum 312 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be benefiting from some good luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

ORLANDO HERNANDEZ, NYM, 396 BFP, .216 BABIP
CHRIS YOUNG, SD, 473 BFP, .234 BABIP
JASON MARQUIS, CHC, 530 BFP, .234 BABIP
JEREMY GUTHRIE, BAL, 462 BFP, .236 BABIP
JASON BERGMANN, WAS, 313 BFP, .239 BABIP
BYUNG-HYUN KIM, FLO, 350 BFP, .241 BABIP
SHAUN MARCUM, TOR, 408 BFP, .243 BABIP
RICH HILL, CHC, 482 BFP, .244 BABIP
DAN HAREN, OAK, 601 BFP, .245 BABIP
OLIVER PEREZ, NYM, 475 BFP, .246 BABIP

Pitchers with ERA Worse Than ERMA (minimum 312 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching better than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

JASON BERGMANN, WAS, 313 BFP, 4.56 (3.48)
DUSTIN MCGOWAN, TOR, 383 BFP, 4.45 (3.46)
JORGE SOSA, NYM, 312 BFP, 4.36 (3.39)
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 433 BFP, 7.00 (6.10)
KYLE DAVIES, ATL, 389 BFP, 5.76 (4.92)
JEFF WEAVER, SEA, 361 BFP, 5.96 (5.18)
TIMOTHY LINCECUM, SF, 383 BFP, 3.90 (3.12)
BARRY ZITO, SF, 517 BFP, 5.00 (4.23)
KAMERON LOE, TEX, 495 BFP, 5.59 (4.86)
BRADEN LOOPER, STL, 479 BFP, 4.85 (4.12)

Pitchers with ERA Better Than ERMA (minimum 312 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching worse than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

DOUG DAVIS, ARI, 571 BFP, 4.13 (5.14)
SERGIO MITRE, FLO, 451 BFP, 3.34 (4.20)
CHUCK JAMES, ATL, 507 BFP, 3.55 (4.40)
BRAD THOMPSON, STL, 432 BFP, 4.93 (5.77)
SHAWN CHACON, PIT, 326 BFP, 3.51 (4.24)
LENNY DINARDO, OAK, 319 BFP, 2.41 (3.10)
JOHN SMOLTZ, ATL, 502 BFP, 2.78 (3.46)
JOHN LACKEY, LAA, 581 BFP, 3.27 (3.92)
JERED WEAVER, LAA, 388 BFP, 3.30 (3.90)
CHAD DURBIN, DET, 404 BFP, 4.23 (4.80)