Good Luck, Bad Luck
published Friday, August 3, 2007

This season, we've introduced a new report designed to highlight performances that may be outside of a player's long-term sustainable ability. As we said, this report will run most Friday evenings up until early September and, if you haven't already, we encourage you to check out the first column in the series for details on what the categories mean, how the lists are calculated and how to properly use them.

All data is through play completed Thursday.

Highest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 110 at bats

If player has performed above typical league leading levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 35% league-leading type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be benefiting from some lucky singles, though in the long run, the best singles hitters should eventually end up on this list.

MATT KEMP, LAD, 133 AB, 34% 1B/BIP Rate, .338
WILLIE BLOOMQUIST, SEA, 116 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .293
ICHIRO SUZUKI, SEA, 441 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .351
RUBEN GOTAY, NYM, 124 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .347
WILLY TAVERAS, COL, 323 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .316
MATT DIAZ, ATL, 229 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .345
CHONE FIGGINS, LAA, 313 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .335
REGGIE WILLITS, LAA, 294 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .303
MARLON BYRD, TEX, 224 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .326
TONY GWYNN, MIL, 113 AB, 30% 1B/BIP Rate, .274

Lowest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 110 at bats

If player has performed below typical league-worst levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 15% league-trailing type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be experiencing some bad luck in terms of how many singles are dropping in.

JASON LARUE, KC, 123 AB, 12% 1B/BIP Rate, .163 (.181)
ERIC HINSKE, BOS, 116 AB, 12% 1B/BIP Rate, .207 (.227)
RICHIE SEXSON, SEA, 348 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .198 (.214)
RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 186 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .156 (.164)
JOHN BUCK, KC, 232 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .237 (.244)
JERMAINE DYE, CHW, 345 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .238 (.243)
ELIJAH DUKES, TB, 184 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .190 (.196)
JERRY HAIRSTON, TEX, 147 AB, 15% 1B/BIP Rate, .190 (.195)
KHALIL GREENE, SD, 387 AB, 15% 1B/BIP Rate, .233 (.236)
DAN UGGLA, FLO, 436 AB, 15% 1B/BIP Rate, .255 (.257)

Top Contact Rates, minimum 110 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact more often than is sustainable (which usually leads to a higher batting average), though eventually the best contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

PLACIDO POLANCO, DET, 399 AB, 95% Rate
DAVID ECKSTEIN, STL, 255 AB, 95% Rate
JUAN PIERRE, LAD, 448 AB, 94% Rate
PAUL LO DUCA, NYM, 326 AB, 93% Rate
KEVIN MENCH, MIL, 225 AB, 92% Rate
CESAR IZTURIS, PIT, 210 AB, 92% Rate
LUIS CASTILLO, NYM, 365 AB, 92% Rate
JEFF CIRILLO, MIN, 153 AB, 92% Rate
AARON MILES, STL, 268 AB, 91% Rate
ALBERTO CALLASPO, ARI, 126 AB, 91% Rate

Bottom Contact Rates, minimum 110 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact less often than they actually can (which usually leads to a lower batting average), though the worst contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

JACK CUST, OAK, 226 AB, 58% Rate
RUSSELL BRANYAN, SD, 122 AB, 61% Rate
JASON LARUE, KC, 123 AB, 61% Rate
RYAN HOWARD, PHI, 329 AB, 62% Rate
WILY MO PENA, BOS, 145 AB, 62% Rate
RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 186 AB, 63% Rate
ROB BOWEN, OAK, 122 AB, 63% Rate
JOSH FIELDS, CHW, 182 AB, 66% Rate
JOE BORCHARD, FLO, 176 AB, 66% Rate
ADAM DUNN, CIN, 379 AB, 66% Rate

HIGHEST BABIP (minimum 330 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be experiencing a lot of bad luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

ZACH DUKE, PIT, 418 BFP, .371 BABIP
BARTOLO COLON, LAA, 394 BFP, .354 BABIP
CASEY FOSSUM, TB, 353 BFP, .350 BABIP
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 458 BFP, .349 BABIP
FELIX HERNANDEZ, SEA, 499 BFP, .342 BABIP
VICENTE PADILLA, TEX, 385 BFP, .340 BABIP
SCOTT OLSEN, FLO, 574 BFP, .336 BABIP
KEVIN MILLWOOD, TEX, 475 BFP, .335 BABIP
SCOTT KAZMIR, TB, 605 BFP, .332 BABIP
JEFF WEAVER, SEA, 383 BFP, .330 BABIP

LOWEST BABIP (minimum 330 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be benefiting from some good luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

ORLANDO HERNANDEZ, NYM, 421 BFP, .213 BABIP
SHAUN MARCUM, TOR, 433 BFP, .233 BABIP
CHRIS YOUNG, SD, 473 BFP, .234 BABIP
JASON MARQUIS, CHC, 558 BFP, .240 BABIP
JOHN MAINE, NYM, 542 BFP, .244 BABIP
JEREMY GUTHRIE, BAL, 517 BFP, .246 BABIP
DAN HAREN, OAK, 628 BFP, .246 BABIP
JOHAN SANTANA, MIN, 586 BFP, .247 BABIP
CARLOS ZAMBRANO, CHC, 626 BFP, .248 BABIP
OLIVER PEREZ, NYM, 502 BFP, .249 BABIP

Pitchers with ERA Worse Than ERMA (minimum 330 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching better than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

JASON JENNINGS, HOU, 349 BFP, 6.02 (4.98)
JAKE WESTBROOK, CLE, 340 BFP, 5.40 (4.37)
DUSTIN MCGOWAN, TOR, 407 BFP, 4.36 (3.43)
BRADEN LOOPER, STL, 499 BFP, 5.23 (4.37)
JEFF WEAVER, SEA, 383 BFP, 6.32 (5.46)
KAMERON LOE, TEX, 522 BFP, 5.80 (4.95)
KYLE DAVIES, ATL, 389 BFP, 5.76 (4.92)
JON GARLAND, CHW, 599 BFP, 4.60 (3.83)
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 458 BFP, 6.56 (5.81)
JORGE SOSA, NYM, 358 BFP, 4.36 (3.61)

Pitchers with ERA Better Than ERMA (minimum 330 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching worse than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

BRAD THOMPSON, STL, 464 BFP, 5.10 (6.07)
DOUG DAVIS, ARI, 599 BFP, 4.11 (4.94)
JOHN LACKEY, LAA, 615 BFP, 3.07 (3.80)
SHAWN CHACON, PIT, 342 BFP, 3.84 (4.54)
CHUCK JAMES, ATL, 529 BFP, 3.70 (4.36)
BYUNG-HYUN KIM, FLO, 378 BFP, 4.63 (5.29)
JOHN SMOLTZ, ATL, 530 BFP, 2.84 (3.48)
MARK BUEHRLE, CHW, 584 BFP, 3.06 (3.62)
JOE KENNEDY, OAK, 450 BFP, 4.37 (4.90)
DONTRELLE WILLIS, FLO, 624 BFP, 4.94 (5.48)