Good Luck, Bad Luck
published Friday, August 10, 2007

This season, we've introduced a new report designed to highlight performances that may be outside of a player's long-term sustainable ability. As we said, this report will run most Friday evenings up until early September and, if you haven't already, we encourage you to check out the first column in the series for details on what the categories mean, how the lists are calculated and how to properly use them.

All data is through play completed Thursday.

Highest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 116 at bats

If player has performed above typical league leading levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 35% league-leading type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be benefiting from some lucky singles, though in the long run, the best singles hitters should eventually end up on this list.

WILLIE BLOOMQUIST, SEA, 117 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .299
MATT KEMP, LAD, 145 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .317
ICHIRO SUZUKI, SEA, 471 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .350
RUBEN GOTAY, NYM, 132 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .348
CHONE FIGGINS, LAA, 335 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .340
WILLY TAVERAS, COL, 339 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .313
REGGIE WILLITS, LAA, 309 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .304
MATT DIAZ, ATL, 244 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .344
B.J. UPTON, TB, 300 AB, 30% 1B/BIP Rate, .327
WILLIE HARRIS, ATL, 241 AB, 30% 1B/BIP Rate, .328

Lowest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 116 at bats

If player has performed below typical league-worst levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 15% league-trailing type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be experiencing some bad luck in terms of how many singles are dropping in.

JASON LANE, HOU, 130 AB, 10% 1B/BIP Rate, .162 (.202)
JASON LARUE, KC, 129 AB, 11% 1B/BIP Rate, .155 (.177)
ERIC HINSKE, BOS, 116 AB, 12% 1B/BIP Rate, .207 (.227)
RICHIE SEXSON, SEA, 360 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .200 (.210)
RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 193 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .155 (.162)
KHALIL GREENE, SD, 412 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .228 (.235)
ELIJAH DUKES, TB, 184 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .190 (.196)
LUKE SCOTT, HOU, 260 AB, 15% 1B/BIP Rate, .250 (.253)
JOHN BUCK, KC, 245 AB, 15% 1B/BIP Rate, .237 (.240)
JERMAINE DYE, CHW, 364 AB, 15% 1B/BIP Rate, .242 (.244)

Top Contact Rates, minimum 116 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact more often than is sustainable (which usually leads to a higher batting average), though eventually the best contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

PLACIDO POLANCO, DET, 427 AB, 95% Rate
DAVID ECKSTEIN, STL, 280 AB, 95% Rate
JUAN PIERRE, LAD, 472 AB, 94% Rate
KEVIN MENCH, MIL, 241 AB, 93% Rate
PAUL LO DUCA, NYM, 338 AB, 93% Rate
LUIS CASTILLO, NYM, 384 AB, 92% Rate
CESAR IZTURIS, PIT, 225 AB, 92% Rate
JEFF CIRILLO, ARI, 155 AB, 92% Rate
KENJI JOHJIMA, SEA, 344 AB, 92% Rate
AARON MILES, STL, 279 AB, 91% Rate

Bottom Contact Rates, minimum 116 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact less often than they actually can (which usually leads to a lower batting average), though the worst contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

JACK CUST, OAK, 240 AB, 59% Rate
RUSSELL BRANYAN, SD, 122 AB, 61% Rate
JASON LARUE, KC, 129 AB, 61% Rate
RYAN HOWARD, PHI, 351 AB, 62% Rate
ROB BOWEN, OAK, 126 AB, 63% Rate
WILY MO PENA, BOS, 151 AB, 63% Rate
RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 193 AB, 63% Rate
MARK REYNOLDS, ARI, 218 AB, 65% Rate
JOE BORCHARD, FLO, 179 AB, 66% Rate
JOSH FIELDS, CHW, 206 AB, 67% Rate

HIGHEST BABIP (minimum 348 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be experiencing a lot of bad luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

ZACH DUKE, PIT, 418 BFP, .371 BABIP
BARTOLO COLON, LAA, 394 BFP, .354 BABIP
CASEY FOSSUM, TB, 364 BFP, .349 BABIP
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 486 BFP, .347 BABIP
FELIX HERNANDEZ, SEA, 528 BFP, .344 BABIP
KEVIN MILLWOOD, TEX, 519 BFP, .342 BABIP
VICENTE PADILLA, TEX, 385 BFP, .340 BABIP
JEFF WEAVER, SEA, 410 BFP, .339 BABIP
SCOTT OLSEN, FLO, 602 BFP, .335 BABIP
DAVID WELLS, SD, 532 BFP, .332 BABIP

LOWEST BABIP (minimum 348 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be benefiting from some good luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

ORLANDO HERNANDEZ, NYM, 473 BFP, .217 BABIP
CHRIS YOUNG, SD, 499 BFP, .232 BABIP
SHAUN MARCUM, TOR, 461 BFP, .241 BABIP
JASON MARQUIS, CHC, 586 BFP, .247 BABIP
CARLOS ZAMBRANO, CHC, 679 BFP, .247 BABIP
JOHN MAINE, NYM, 585 BFP, .248 BABIP
JUSTIN GERMANO, SD, 375 BFP, .248 BABIP
JASON HIRSH, COL, 483 BFP, .249 BABIP
JEREMY GUTHRIE, BAL, 539 BFP, .251 BABIP
RICH HILL, CHC, 558 BFP, .251 BABIP

Pitchers with ERA Worse Than ERMA (minimum 348 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching better than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

ANTHONY REYES, STL, 356 BFP, 5.66 (4.35)
JAKE WESTBROOK, CLE, 367 BFP, 5.01 (4.07)
KAMERON LOE, TEX, 522 BFP, 5.80 (4.95)
KYLE DAVIES, KC, 432 BFP, 5.64 (4.80)
SCOTT BAKER, MIN, 356 BFP, 4.43 (3.61)
BRADEN LOOPER, STL, 524 BFP, 5.25 (4.44)
JUSTIN GERMANO, SD, 375 BFP, 4.30 (3.52)
JASON JENNINGS, HOU, 379 BFP, 6.11 (5.36)
JON GARLAND, CHW, 627 BFP, 4.56 (3.83)
JORGE SOSA, NYM, 371 BFP, 4.31 (3.59)

Pitchers with ERA Better Than ERMA (minimum 348 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching worse than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

BRAD THOMPSON, STL, 471 BFP, 5.21 (6.16)
JOHN LACKEY, LAA, 645 BFP, 3.11 (3.87)
BYUNG-HYUN KIM, ARI, 393 BFP, 4.93 (5.68)
DOUG DAVIS, ARI, 653 BFP, 3.81 (4.55)
SHAWN CHACON, PIT, 350 BFP, 3.99 (4.67)
JOHN SMOLTZ, ATL, 588 BFP, 3.03 (3.67)
CHUCK JAMES, ATL, 551 BFP, 3.84 (4.48)
JOE KENNEDY, ARI, 460 BFP, 4.27 (4.88)
FAUSTO CARMONA, CLE, 598 BFP, 3.17 (3.73)
DONTRELLE WILLIS, FLO, 680 BFP, 4.98 (5.54)