Good Luck, Bad Luck
published Friday, August 17, 2007

This season, we've introduced a new report designed to highlight performances that may be outside of a player's long-term sustainable ability. As we said, this report will run most Friday evenings up until early September and, if you haven't already, we encourage you to check out the first column in the series for details on what the categories mean, how the lists are calculated and how to properly use them.

All data is through play completed Thursday.

Highest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 122 at bats

If player has performed above typical league leading levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 35% league-leading type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be benefiting from some lucky singles, though in the long run, the best singles hitters should eventually end up on this list.

ICHIRO SUZUKI, SEA, 496 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .347
MATT KEMP, LAD, 159 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .321
CHONE FIGGINS, LAA, 358 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .341
RUBEN GOTAY, NYM, 140 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .343
WILLY TAVERAS, COL, 347 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .311
REGGIE WILLITS, LAA, 325 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .302
MATT DIAZ, ATL, 254 AB, 30% 1B/BIP Rate, .343
JOSE VIDRO, SEA, 405 AB, 30% 1B/BIP Rate, .319
MARLON BYRD, TEX, 268 AB, 30% 1B/BIP Rate, .321
B.J. UPTON, TB, 322 AB, 29% 1B/BIP Rate, .317

Lowest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 122 at bats

If player has performed below typical league-worst levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 15% league-trailing type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be experiencing some bad luck in terms of how many singles are dropping in.

JASON LARUE, KC, 134 AB, 11% 1B/BIP Rate, .149 (.173)
JASON LANE, HOU, 151 AB, 11% 1B/BIP Rate, .179 (.209)
RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 195 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .154 (.161)
RICHIE SEXSON, SEA, 385 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .208 (.214)
JOHN BUCK, KC, 262 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .233 (.239)
ELIJAH DUKES, TB, 184 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .190 (.196)
RUSSELL BRANYAN, PHI, 124 AB, 15% 1B/BIP Rate, .202 (.204)
KHALIL GREENE, SD, 436 AB, 15% 1B/BIP Rate, .236 (.237)
RICKIE WEEKS, MIL, 272 AB, 15% 1B/BIP Rate, .206
SCOTT THORMAN, ATL, 263 AB, 15% 1B/BIP Rate, .217

Top Contact Rates, minimum 122 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact more often than is sustainable (which usually leads to a higher batting average), though eventually the best contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

PLACIDO POLANCO, DET, 436 AB, 95% Rate
DAVID ECKSTEIN, STL, 303 AB, 95% Rate
JUAN PIERRE, LAD, 497 AB, 94% Rate
PAUL LO DUCA, NYM, 344 AB, 93% Rate
KEVIN MENCH, MIL, 247 AB, 93% Rate
LUIS CASTILLO, NYM, 406 AB, 93% Rate
CESAR IZTURIS, PIT, 241 AB, 93% Rate
KENJI JOHJIMA, SEA, 358 AB, 92% Rate
AARON MILES, STL, 292 AB, 91% Rate
DUSTIN PEDROIA, BOS, 361 AB, 91% Rate

Bottom Contact Rates, minimum 122 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact less often than they actually can (which usually leads to a lower batting average), though the worst contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

JACK CUST, OAK, 267 AB, 60% Rate
JASON LARUE, KC, 134 AB, 60% Rate
RUSSELL BRANYAN, PHI, 124 AB, 60% Rate
RYAN HOWARD, PHI, 373 AB, 62% Rate
RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 195 AB, 63% Rate
WILY MO PENA, BOS, 156 AB, 63% Rate
ROB BOWEN, OAK, 128 AB, 63% Rate
JOSH FIELDS, CHW, 232 AB, 66% Rate
MARK REYNOLDS, ARI, 242 AB, 66% Rate
JOE BORCHARD, FLO, 179 AB, 66% Rate

HIGHEST BABIP (minimum 366 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be experiencing a lot of bad luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

ZACH DUKE, PIT, 418 BFP, .371 BABIP
BARTOLO COLON, LAA, 394 BFP, .354 BABIP
VICENTE PADILLA, TEX, 403 BFP, .342 BABIP
FELIX HERNANDEZ, SEA, 553 BFP, .339 BABIP
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 516 BFP, .338 BABIP
KEVIN MILLWOOD, TEX, 546 BFP, .338 BABIP
ODALIS PEREZ, KC, 606 BFP, .333 BABIP
DAVID WELLS, SD, 532 BFP, .332 BABIP
SCOTT OLSEN, FLO, 627 BFP, .331 BABIP
SCOTT KAZMIR, TB, 679 BFP, .331 BABIP

LOWEST BABIP (minimum 366 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be benefiting from some good luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

ORLANDO HERNANDEZ, NYM, 502 BFP, .219 BABIP
CHRIS YOUNG, SD, 521 BFP, .231 BABIP
SHAUN MARCUM, TOR, 509 BFP, .232 BABIP
JASON MARQUIS, CHC, 641 BFP, .248 BABIP
JASON HIRSH, COL, 483 BFP, .249 BABIP
JOHN MAINE, NYM, 608 BFP, .249 BABIP
JUSTIN GERMANO, SD, 400 BFP, .252 BABIP
A.J. BURNETT, TOR, 428 BFP, .256 BABIP
JEREMY GUTHRIE, BAL, 563 BFP, .257 BABIP
CARLOS ZAMBRANO, CHC, 713 BFP, .258 BABIP

Pitchers with ERA Worse Than ERMA (minimum 366 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching better than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

ANDREW SONNANSTINE, TB, 366 BFP, 6.17 (4.71)
ANTHONY REYES, STL, 381 BFP, 5.48 (4.26)
JAKE WESTBROOK, CLE, 397 BFP, 5.02 (4.15)
KAMERON LOE, TEX, 522 BFP, 5.80 (4.95)
BRADEN LOOPER, STL, 547 BFP, 5.07 (4.23)
KYLE DAVIES, KC, 456 BFP, 5.72 (4.92)
JASON JENNINGS, HOU, 424 BFP, 6.16 (5.40)
DUSTIN MCGOWAN, TOR, 492 BFP, 4.14 (3.45)
CLIFF LEE, CLE, 418 BFP, 6.38 (5.69)
MARK HENDRICKSON, LAD, 461 BFP, 5.19 (4.51)

Pitchers with ERA Better Than ERMA (minimum 366 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching worse than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

BRAD THOMPSON, STL, 482 BFP, 5.06 (6.07)
JOHN LACKEY, LAA, 676 BFP, 3.07 (3.85)
DOUG DAVIS, ARI, 679 BFP, 3.92 (4.63)
DONTRELLE WILLIS, FLO, 712 BFP, 4.93 (5.58)
BYUNG-HYUN KIM, ARI, 400 BFP, 5.23 (5.87)
NOAH LOWRY, SF, 620 BFP, 3.28 (3.91)
SCOTT KAZMIR, TB, 679 BFP, 3.44 (4.01)
ROY OSWALT, HOU, 747 BFP, 3.32 (3.89)
JOHN SMOLTZ, ATL, 615 BFP, 3.09 (3.64)
JUSTIN VERLANDER, DET, 652 BFP, 3.63 (4.16)