Good Luck, Bad Luck
published Friday, August 24, 2007

This season, we've introduced a new report designed to highlight performances that may be outside of a player's long-term sustainable ability. As we said, this report will run most Friday evenings up until early September and, if you haven't already, we encourage you to check out the first column in the series for details on what the categories mean, how the lists are calculated and how to properly use them.

All data is through play completed Thursday.

Highest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 128 at bats

If player has performed above typical league leading levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 35% league-leading type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be benefiting from some lucky singles, though in the long run, the best singles hitters should eventually end up on this list.

JOEY GATHRIGHT, KC, 137 AB, 36% 1B/BIP Rate, .358 (.345)
MATT KEMP, LAD, 177 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .333
ICHIRO SUZUKI, SEA, 526 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .352
CHONE FIGGINS, LAA, 379 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .335
REGGIE WILLITS, LAA, 342 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .295
WILLY TAVERAS, COL, 347 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .311
RUBEN GOTAY, NYM, 144 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .333
MATT DIAZ, ATL, 271 AB, 30% 1B/BIP Rate, .343
NORRIS HOPPER, CIN, 211 AB, 30% 1B/BIP Rate, .318
JOSE VIDRO, SEA, 430 AB, 29% 1B/BIP Rate, .319

Lowest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 128 at bats

If player has performed below typical league-worst levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 15% league-trailing type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be experiencing some bad luck in terms of how many singles are dropping in.

JASON LARUE, KC, 138 AB, 11% 1B/BIP Rate, .145 (.171)
JASON LANE, HOU, 164 AB, 12% 1B/BIP Rate, .177 (.202)
RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 196 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .153 (.160)
RICHIE SEXSON, SEA, 413 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .211 (.216)
ELIJAH DUKES, TB, 184 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .190 (.196)
RUSSELL BRANYAN, PHI, 129 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .202 (.205)
JOHN BUCK, KC, 273 AB, 15% 1B/BIP Rate, .231 (.234)
SCOTT THORMAN, ATL, 268 AB, 15% 1B/BIP Rate, .216 (.219)
JERRY HAIRSTON, TEX, 149 AB, 15% 1B/BIP Rate, .195
ANDRUW JONES, ATL, 466 AB, 15% 1B/BIP Rate, .219

Top Contact Rates, minimum 128 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact more often than is sustainable (which usually leads to a higher batting average), though eventually the best contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

PLACIDO POLANCO, DET, 447 AB, 95% Rate
DAVID ECKSTEIN, STL, 325 AB, 94% Rate
JUAN PIERRE, LAD, 524 AB, 94% Rate
CESAR IZTURIS, PIT, 250 AB, 93% Rate
PAUL LO DUCA, NYM, 344 AB, 93% Rate
LUIS CASTILLO, NYM, 433 AB, 93% Rate
KEVIN MENCH, MIL, 252 AB, 92% Rate
DUSTIN PEDROIA, BOS, 384 AB, 92% Rate
KENJI JOHJIMA, SEA, 383 AB, 92% Rate
AARON MILES, STL, 297 AB, 92% Rate

Bottom Contact Rates, minimum 128 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact less often than they actually can (which usually leads to a lower batting average), though the worst contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

RUSSELL BRANYAN, PHI, 129 AB, 59% Rate
JACK CUST, OAK, 288 AB, 60% Rate
JASON LARUE, KC, 138 AB, 61% Rate
RYAN HOWARD, PHI, 394 AB, 62% Rate
ROB BOWEN, OAK, 132 AB, 62% Rate
RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 196 AB, 62% Rate
MARK REYNOLDS, ARI, 258 AB, 64% Rate
WILY MO PENA, WAS, 177 AB, 64% Rate
JOSH FIELDS, CHW, 257 AB, 65% Rate
WILSON BETEMIT, NYY, 193 AB, 66% Rate

HIGHEST BABIP (minimum 384 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be experiencing a lot of bad luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

ZACH DUKE, PIT, 418 BFP, .371 BABIP
BARTOLO COLON, LAA, 394 BFP, .354 BABIP
FELIX HERNANDEZ, SEA, 584 BFP, .343 BABIP
VICENTE PADILLA, TEX, 428 BFP, .338 BABIP
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 574 BFP, .333 BABIP
SCOTT KAZMIR, TB, 707 BFP, .333 BABIP
DAVID WELLS, SD, 532 BFP, .332 BABIP
ODALIS PEREZ, KC, 626 BFP, .329 BABIP
KEVIN MILLWOOD, TEX, 574 BFP, .329 BABIP
MIKE MUSSINA, NYY, 521 BFP, .328 BABIP

LOWEST BABIP (minimum 384 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be benefiting from some good luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

ORLANDO HERNANDEZ, NYM, 530 BFP, .213 BABIP
CHRIS YOUNG, SD, 542 BFP, .234 BABIP
SHAUN MARCUM, TOR, 528 BFP, .243 BABIP
JASON MARQUIS, CHC, 670 BFP, .245 BABIP
A.J. BURNETT, TOR, 482 BFP, .246 BABIP
JASON HIRSH, COL, 483 BFP, .249 BABIP
JEREMY GUTHRIE, BAL, 590 BFP, .250 BABIP
BRIAN BANNISTER, KC, 546 BFP, .250 BABIP
JOHN MAINE, NYM, 635 BFP, .251 BABIP
JUSTIN GERMANO, SD, 447 BFP, .253 BABIP

Pitchers with ERA Worse Than ERMA (minimum 384 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching better than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

ANDREW SONNANSTINE, TB, 390 BFP, 6.53 (4.85)
ANTHONY REYES, STL, 428 BFP, 5.33 (4.24)
JASON JENNINGS, HOU, 445 BFP, 6.45 (5.55)
BRADEN LOOPER, STL, 593 BFP, 4.90 (4.12)
JUSTIN GERMANO, SD, 447 BFP, 4.24 (3.49)
JORGE SOSA, NYM, 407 BFP, 4.19 (3.44)
MARK HENDRICKSON, LAD, 476 BFP, 5.09 (4.35)
DUSTIN MCGOWAN, TOR, 516 BFP, 4.19 (3.46)
TIMOTHY LINCECUM, SF, 515 BFP, 3.91 (3.19)
CLIFF LEE, CLE, 418 BFP, 6.38 (5.69)

Pitchers with ERA Better Than ERMA (minimum 384 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching worse than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

BRAD THOMPSON, STL, 498 BFP, 5.07 (6.14)
JOHN LACKEY, LAA, 730 BFP, 3.40 (4.18)
DOUG DAVIS, ARI, 692 BFP, 4.22 (4.86)
BYUNG-HYUN KIM, ARI, 400 BFP, 5.23 (5.87)
DONTRELLE WILLIS, FLO, 737 BFP, 4.92 (5.54)
JOHN SMOLTZ, ATL, 648 BFP, 3.04 (3.63)
NOAH LOWRY, SF, 647 BFP, 3.34 (3.89)
JOE KENNEDY, ARI, 469 BFP, 4.77 (5.29)
ROY OSWALT, HOU, 767 BFP, 3.33 (3.84)
DAN HAREN, OAK, 739 BFP, 2.66 (3.16)