David Luciani

Dynamic Prospect Rankings: Updating the Pitchers
August 28, 2009

We already have explained what this list is (and isn't) in the first edition of these lists and we also won't repeat all the warnings or clarifications that we did there as well as in the original essay back in early March but unlike the hitters, we do want to remind readers that the pitcher lists are far less reliable.  Whether that's because pitchers are harder to forecast or if our own methods simply don't work as well on pitchers, we remind readers that about one third of the pitchers list typically does not pan out.

Again, we highlight movement on the list with tick marks to indicate direction and if a player makes our dynamic 25 for the first time or returns to it after not making the previous cut, we highlight his name.

We also remind readers that a pitcher must have had 40 translated innings either last year or this year to be considered and must still have their potential rookie eligibility for 2010 (e.g. Trevor Cahill, our #3 in the pre-season, will now definitely not be a rookie in 2010 because of how many big league innings he has thrown this year so he has been removed).

REMINDER: As our annual publishing season ends on the the weekend of September 5-6, our final dynamic prospect list of the publishing season (which is one more hitters list after this one) will run on Friday, September 4.  That means that this pitcher list is the final pitchers list of the season with new lists returning in 2010.  We hope readers enjoyed and benefited from this new feature we added this year.

1. Matt Maloney, Cincinnati

2. Hector Rondan, Cleveland

3. Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay

4. Daniel Hudson, Chicago White Sox

5. Chris Tillman, Baltimore

6. Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland: We're moving Carrasco way up in our final pitching list of the year, this as he's been much sharper since the trade from Philadelphia, now 5-1 with a 3.19 ERA in 6 starts for Triple-A Columbus.  Since the trade, in 42.1 innings, he's allowed just 31 hits, 7 walks and struck out 36.

7. Wade LeBlanc, San Diego: His control, already a strong point before, is getting even better.  In his past four starts, he's allowed exactly 1 walk in each start while lasting at least six innings in all four of them.

8. Wade Davis, Tampa Bay

9. Travis Wood, Cincinnati

10. Antonio Bastardo, Philadelphia

11. Jake Arrietta, Baltimore

12. Jess Todd, Cleveland

13. Yohan Pino, Minnesota (traded today) Cleveland: It's rare that we would mention a player for the first time in these pages and give him such a prominent place on the list but Pino's one we perhaps should have mentioned earlier.  Admittedly, he is a bit old to have started the season at Double-A this year (twenty-five) but he's advanced to Triple-A Rochester now, where he's 2-2 with a 2.82 ERA in 8 starts.  Combined between two levels this year, he's 7-3 with a 3.03 ERA in 40 games, 12 of them starts.  In 113 innings, he's allowed 98 hits, 27 walks and struck out 108.  In his last five starts he has a 1.82 ERA, has struck out almost a batter per inning and walked only 6 in 34.2 innings. LATE NOTE: Pino was dealt to Cleveland moments after today's entry was posted, this as the player to be named later in the Carl Pavano trade.

14. Neftali Feliz, Texas: Feliz has dropped on these lists not because of the way he's pitched - he's been fantastic - but because we now believe his long-term future is as a reliever, slightly reducing his career value as we had previously expected he'd end up as a top starting pitcher.

15. P.J. Walters, St. Louis

16. Michael Bowden, Boston

17. Zach Braddock, Milwaukee

18. Kasey Kiker, Texas

19. Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco

20. Bryan Augenstein, Arizona

21. Jordan Lyles, Houston: He's still incredibly raw and young (18 years old).  A supplemental first rounder in 2008 drafted out of high school, he's currently pitching at Single-A Lexington, where his win-loss record (6-13) is in sharp contrast to how he's actually pitched, now with a 3.23 ERA after 24 starts with 155 strikeouts and only 38 walks in 133.2 innings with only 4 home runs allowed all season.  He's allowed a grand total of 6 earned runs in his past five starts (29 innings) and hasn't given up a home run since June.

22. Will Inman, San Diego

23. Matt Latos, San Diego: Already in the majors, he's on the verge of being shut down for the season because of an innings cap.  If he does get shut down without another start, his 44.1 innings will leave him eligible for Rookie of the Year consideration in 2010.

24. Christian Friedrich, Colorado: Colorado pitchers are always tricky to project because of the home park but you have to keep in mind that you never know where a guy will end up spending the majority of his career.  Friedrich was the Rockies' first round pick in 2008 and is currently wrapping up the season with High-A Modesto, where he's 3-2 with a 2.05 ERA in 12 starts.  In 70.1 innings, he's allowed 50 hits, 26 walks and struck out 88 with 3 home runs allowed on the year.  He had quite a stretch from mid-July to mid-August, where four of his six starts saw him allow no earned runs (the other two being starts that saw him allow only 1 run) and during that stretch, he topped 10 strikeouts in 3 consecutive starts even though he did not pitch more than 6 innings in any one of them.

25. Zach McAllister, Yankees: He missed about a month with a shoulder problem but is now back pitching for Double-A Trenton, where he's 6-5 with a 2.40 ERA n 20 starts.  In his second-last start, he lasted only 4.2 innings but still struck out 11, walking just 1 in that game.

Dropped Off for Now

James McDonald now is no longer a rookie for 2010 with 49.1 innings this year and 6 innings pitched for the Dodgers in 2008, putting him over the 50 big league innings mark.  The other four pitchers we removed were the bottom four from the last list.  Even Anundsen, Henry Rodriguez and Anthony Slama were new highlights last time out and just fall short this time.  The final name from the previous list, Jon Niese, was one we said would probably be listed for the last time because his season ended early thanks to a torn hamstring.  All remain names you need to know about for the future.