Good Luck, Bad Luck
published Friday, August 31, 2007

This season, we've introduced a new report designed to highlight performances that may be outside of a player's long-term sustainable ability. As we said, this report will run most Friday evenings up until early September and, if you haven't already, we encourage you to check out the first column in the series for details on what the categories mean, how the lists are calculated and how to properly use them.

All data is through play completed Thursday.

Highest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 134 at bats

If player has performed above typical league leading levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 35% league-leading type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be benefiting from some lucky singles, though in the long run, the best singles hitters should eventually end up on this list.

JOEY GATHRIGHT, KC, 154 AB, 35% 1B/BIP Rate, .338 (.337)
ICHIRO SUZUKI, SEA, 552 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .350
MATT KEMP, LAD, 198 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .328
CHONE FIGGINS, LAA, 379 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .335
REGGIE WILLITS, LAA, 362 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .296
WILLY TAVERAS, COL, 347 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .311
JAYSON WERTH, PHI, 168 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .315
NORRIS HOPPER, CIN, 225 AB, 30% 1B/BIP Rate, .324
B.J. UPTON, TB, 380 AB, 29% 1B/BIP Rate, .311
MATT DIAZ, ATL, 288 AB, 29% 1B/BIP Rate, .354

Lowest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 134 at bats

If player has performed below typical league-worst levels, number in brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a 15% league-trailing type singles rate:

Players in this section MAY be experiencing some bad luck in terms of how many singles are dropping in.

JASON LARUE, KC, 143 AB, 10% 1B/BIP Rate, .140 (.168)
JASON LANE, HOU, 164 AB, 12% 1B/BIP Rate, .177 (.202)
ERIC HINSKE, BOS, 137 AB, 13% 1B/BIP Rate, .197 (.215)
RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 196 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .153 (.160)
RICHIE SEXSON, SEA, 429 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .207 (.213)
ELIJAH DUKES, TB, 184 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .190 (.196)
JOHN BUCK, KC, 284 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .225 (.229)
SCOTT THORMAN, ATL, 274 AB, 15% 1B/BIP Rate, .215 (.216)
JERRY HAIRSTON, TEX, 149 AB, 15% 1B/BIP Rate, .195
GREGG ZAUN, TOR, 254 AB, 15% 1B/BIP Rate, .224

Top Contact Rates, minimum 134 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact more often than is sustainable (which usually leads to a higher batting average), though eventually the best contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

PLACIDO POLANCO, DET, 477 AB, 95% Rate
JEFF KEPPINGER, CIN, 145 AB, 95% Rate
DAVID ECKSTEIN, STL, 345 AB, 94% Rate
JUAN PIERRE, LAD, 552 AB, 94% Rate
CESAR IZTURIS, PIT, 273 AB, 93% Rate
LUIS CASTILLO, NYM, 446 AB, 93% Rate
PAUL LO DUCA, NYM, 356 AB, 92% Rate
KEVIN MENCH, MIL, 264 AB, 92% Rate
DUSTIN PEDROIA, BOS, 409 AB, 92% Rate
KENJI JOHJIMA, SEA, 407 AB, 92% Rate

Bottom Contact Rates, minimum 134 at bats.

Players in this section MAY be making contact less often than they actually can (which usually leads to a lower batting average), though the worst contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.

JACK CUST, OAK, 309 AB, 60% Rate
JASON LARUE, KC, 143 AB, 61% Rate
RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 196 AB, 62% Rate
RYAN HOWARD, PHI, 424 AB, 63% Rate
MARK REYNOLDS, ARI, 274 AB, 64% Rate
ROB BOWEN, OAK, 138 AB, 64% Rate
WILY MO PENA, WAS, 191 AB, 64% Rate
JOSH FIELDS, CHW, 288 AB, 65% Rate
WILSON BETEMIT, NYY, 202 AB, 66% Rate
JOE BORCHARD, FLO, 179 AB, 66% Rate

HIGHEST BABIP (minimum 402 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be experiencing a lot of bad luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

ZACH DUKE, PIT, 418 BFP, .371 BABIP
FELIX HERNANDEZ, SEA, 639 BFP, .341 BABIP
HORACIO RAMIREZ, SEA, 418 BFP, .338 BABIP
MIKE MUSSINA, NYY, 540 BFP, .335 BABIP
DAVID WELLS, LAD, 555 BFP, .334 BABIP
SCOTT OLSEN, FLO, 710 BFP, .333 BABIP
VICENTE PADILLA, TEX, 451 BFP, .332 BABIP
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 600 BFP, .332 BABIP
SCOTT KAZMIR, TB, 762 BFP, .331 BABIP
ODALIS PEREZ, KC, 626 BFP, .329 BABIP

LOWEST BABIP (minimum 402 batters faced)

Pitchers in this section MAY be benefiting from some good luck in terms of the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing batters to make contact.

ORLANDO HERNANDEZ, NYM, 571 BFP, .212 BABIP
CHRIS YOUNG, SD, 564 BFP, .229 BABIP
A.J. BURNETT, TOR, 511 BFP, .239 BABIP
JASON MARQUIS, CHC, 695 BFP, .244 BABIP
JASON HIRSH, COL, 483 BFP, .249 BABIP
SHAUN MARCUM, TOR, 553 BFP, .250 BABIP
JEREMY GUTHRIE, BAL, 649 BFP, .254 BABIP
JUSTIN GERMANO, SD, 475 BFP, .258 BABIP
JOHN MAINE, NYM, 663 BFP, .259 BABIP
DAN HAREN, OAK, 762 BFP, .259 BABIP

Pitchers with ERA Worse Than ERMA (minimum 402 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching better than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

ANDREW SONNANSTINE, TB, 412 BFP, 6.38 (4.78)
ANTHONY REYES, STL, 428 BFP, 5.33 (4.24)
HORACIO RAMIREZ, SEA, 418 BFP, 6.55 (5.56)
JASON JENNINGS, HOU, 445 BFP, 6.45 (5.55)
KYLE DAVIES, KC, 493 BFP, 6.10 (5.26)
DUSTIN MCGOWAN, TOR, 543 BFP, 4.18 (3.41)
MARK HENDRICKSON, LAD, 485 BFP, 5.16 (4.43)
JORGE SOSA, NYM, 426 BFP, 4.22 (3.50)
TIMOTHY LINCECUM, SF, 541 BFP, 3.94 (3.25)
CLIFF LEE, CLE, 418 BFP, 6.38 (5.69)

Pitchers with ERA Better Than ERMA (minimum 402 batters faced)

Number in brackets is ERMA

Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching worse than their listed ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.

BRAD THOMPSON, STL, 498 BFP, 5.07 (6.14)
JOHN LACKEY, LAA, 762 BFP, 3.18 (3.97)
DONTRELLE WILLIS, FLO, 795 BFP, 5.12 (5.69)
BYUNG-HYUN KIM, FLO, 779 BFP, 4.97 (5.51)
DOUG DAVIS, ARI, 745 BFP, 4.09 (4.63)
ROY OSWALT, HOU, 791 BFP, 3.21 (3.74)
JOE KENNEDY, ARI, 469 BFP, 4.77 (5.29)
JOHN SMOLTZ, ATL, 702 BFP, 3.06 (3.54)
MATTHEW CHICO, WAS, 600 BFP, 4.97 (5.44)
FAUSTO CARMONA, CLE, 710 BFP, 3.16 (3.63)