David Luciani

Another Publishing Season Approaches Conclusion
September 2, 2009

As has been scheduled since way back in December, this weekend's projection set is our final one of the 2009 publishing season.  After this Sunday, therefore, we will not be publishing any new information between then and the end of the 2009 season with the exception of our "Week Ahead" reports, which will be published in advance for the remaining weeks of the regular season.

A lot has changed over the years here but we remain committed to always trying to make the site and the forecasts better than they were the previous year.  I alluded to this in a previous essay a month or two ago but can now clarify our plans for 2010 and what readers can expect to see over the next few months.

First, within the next week or so, we will be posting our annual reader survey and we will also open up early registration for the 2010 season.  We always want readers to fill in the survey because changes at this site are motivated by feedback we get from readers.  We are currently revising the typical format of our survey to add some extra questions, the answers to which should help us further refine our services and quality.

As far as the 2010 season is concerned, I can now confirm that we will be discontinuing offering the extra package that included minor league translations throughout the minor league season.  I explained some of the reasons before in an AskBN issue here but in short, beyond the change in ownership for the company who has always provided us the raw stats to work with, we now want to focus on the players who "matter" and that means that we can give far more attention to minor leaguers who are likely to get called up within the next year or two rather than spend 99%+ of our minor league efforts on players who will never appear in the majors.  Also, from a business perspective, there never really was that much interest in the so-called "elevated" package because most readers, justifiably so, didn't take as much interest in what a player's performance translated to so far but rather what it implied for his future potential.  So, there will be three packages available for 2010 in that the usual basic projection package, the pre-season only package and the pre-season ultra-light will all be available.  We are also adding a pay-by-Paypal option this year, which has been a popular request.  It is entirely possible, if not likely, that we will offer additional upgrade options at a later time, new services that we never had the time or ability to get into because of the tremendous amount of the week that was always spent on calculating and publishing 4,000+ minor league translations.  If and when such services become available, all members would be notified of those optional upgrades.

As always, registering early for 2010 comes with a bonus beyond the discounted price.  Any reader who registers for 2010 by October 1st will automatically qualify to have access to our online year-end 2009 stats E-Book (published in Adobe .pdf format) which will have all final unofficial 2009 stats for any player who appeared in the majors this year, including games by position for hitters.  This year, we expect to publish this E-Book within a week after the conclusion of the World Series. 

I hope two other key changes for 2010 come as good news to readers.  First, we are pleased to announce that we will publish our first projection set for 2010 before the end of November.  In previous years, we have always published in early to mid December and have never published earlier than that but we are now going to publish the first set as early as possible with as many warnings in the projections as are necessary given the incredibly uncertain free agent market in November.

Second, in response to readers who have often said that they would like more essay content, I will begin writing a near-daily blog (completely separate from any of the paid services) on or around the final week of November or first week of December.  I expect to make four or five entries a week, even if they are short, and as this will be entirely free, there may be exceptions where I will be unable to post that often but I will note these in advance, when at all possible.  I want the blog to truly become my "notebook" and I expect to comment there casually and frequently not only throughout the pre-season but throughout the entire publishing season.  The elimination of the minor league translation option affords me this opportunity as I have always historically written much more in the pre-season than during the season, something that no longer needs to be the case.

In terms of the projections themselves, one area I intend to focus much more on will be the separation of risk into injury and performance risks.  In other words, an unproven rookie who's never been hurt might be a huge performance and even a playing time risk but not much of an injury risk whereas a pitcher who's had a history of arm problems but makes $10 million a year could be rated as more of an injury risk than a role risk if healthy.

So, as we conclude another season, as I always do at this time every year, I sincerely thank all readers, especially those who have subscribed to any of our pay services and thus enable us to continue doing what we do.  I cannot adequately convey how much I appreciate your support and interest in our work.  I wish my best to all for a safe and happy conclusion to the season and I'll be back to open a new dialogue here in late November. - David L.