Another Publishing Season Ends
published Wednesday, September 5, 2007
by David Luciani

This is the final personal blog entry of the season in what has been another fun year for us at Baseball Notebook. The new blog approach we took this year, at least new for me, combined with our increased number of weekly reports caused us to publish more than three times the information as we had in any other season.  I also felt that this year, I was able to more quickly and adequately respond to reader questions that came up and be more casual and open with thoughts and ideas I had about various baseball and forecasting issues, even when my only comment was to express uncertainty.  I said yesterday that today's entry would be largely administrative but there's one fantasy baseball item to revisit which we'll get to shortly.

As our publishing season winds down, let me clarify what this, our final week, looks like. Tomorrow's minor league translated leaders (and for subscribers, the corresponding full translation set) will be through play completed Monday rather than the usual Sunday cutoff as there were regular season Triple-A games played on Monday as the full season regular leagues concluded. Thus, our translations will now represent the final full season translations.

On Friday, we'll run one more "Good Luck, Bad Luck" report followed by our final "Weekly Depth Charts" report on Saturday. By Sunday morning, our final projection set of the season will be published and also on Sunday, we'll be publishing three (rather than one) "Week Ahead" reports to reflect the statistical breakdown of the schedule for the final three full weeks of the regular big league schedule. After those three reports are published, our annual publishing cycle will be complete and there will be no new material published at our site this season. As always, we'll leave the members only page of the site available until October 1st so if there's any information or material a reader wishes to keep, they'll need to do so before that date. At noon on October 1st, the members only page will be permanently unavailable and we will not be able to grant exceptions as we go into our off-season mode.

On a fantasy baseball note, before the year started, we created two "SSDS" teams or "Skip to the Safe Draft Strategy" teams. I highlighted how the system works in a series back in December and explained to readers that we had used this system to win a 20-team mixed experts league in 2005, by a wide margin at that. I don't expect nor believe that the system produces automatic winning teams (nor do I believe any system does) but it is designed to attempt to produce high percentage contending teams with the rest being up to the fantasy baseball GM to manage. This year, we tried both a mock experts draft and a ten team NL only league.

Our mock draft team has alternated between third and fourth for most of the season and currently sits in fourth place out of ten teams. Just as with our 2005 team, this team leads the pack in pitching points but unlike that 2005 team, it has really struggled on the hitting side, accumulating just 19 points so far, one of the worst totals in the league. That it is is in fourth place is entirely due to the strong pitching staff which leads the pack in wins, strikeouts, WHIP and is up among the leaders in ERA and saves.

I'm not completely disappointed in these results. This team not only had the hole that was Chris Carpenter, who might have helped push our team ERA even higher had he performed well, but on the hitting side, we ended up with vacant or almost vacant roster spots in Nick Johnson and Joe Crede, to go with many under-performers like Andruw Jones.  I find it interesting that a team drafted almost entirely using a fixed system could actually be among the top four teams in a league of experts but the jury remains out here and a mock draft is arguably not a full test of any system, even though it was fun to try.

I am starting to suspect that SSDS may have its best strength for pitching as every fantasy team that we've tried it on (which granted, is only three true experiments plus a sort of half-SSDS effort in 2004 that deviated from the system frequently) has been the top team in terms of pitching points. It's not that it emphasize drafting pitching early… Perhaps we take one or two starting pitchers earlier than anyone else. It's that SSDS emphasize the recent track record of a pitcher as much as the projection and doesn't gamble on seemingly super pitching prospects who have a shot at a rotation spot or a closing role.

Our NL only experiment is a different story. This team, which has allowed us to make roster changes after the draft (unlike our mock draft experiment) currently leads the 10-team back by a wide margin, now with 80 points compared to the second place team, which has 68.5 points. This team performed even better than I could have projected.  Our team is currently leading both in hitting and pitching and this league includes two owners who have at some point previously beaten me in a fantasy baseball league.  I haven't actually told the league what method I've used to draft the team as this is a "real" league in which the owners just think I'm playing my usual game, though I suspect at least one owner is aware because of what I write in these pages.

On this team, I've used the SSDS approach to make transactions in conjunction with our online ranking sheets. I have broken ties using my own opinion and so, in some ways, it's not a perfectly systematic approach to managing a roster. Still, it's a lot of fun to be leading a real fantasy league with a team that was drafted almost entirely with a statistical method that's been explained in public.  I won't count our chickens yet as there are several tight categories and there could still be significant movement in the final days of the season but obviously, so far this is another successful test of the system.

On to some other administrative issues... Most long-time readers will recall that in previous years that by now, we would usually make pre-registration for the next season available so that returning readers could save a few dollars by committing to another year quite early.  Long-time readers will also recall that before the 2006 season, I had then announced I would be stepping down at the end of 2006 and ultimately decided on returning for another round in 2007. I've enjoyed this year much more than 2006 but I felt it would be inappropriate to make pre-registration available at this time because technically, I have not yet officially signed on for another year with Baseball Notebook in 2008.

Don't get me wrong - There's still lots left to write. I've often mentioned the book I occasionally work on which will document my entire forecasting approach and I'm hoping to have that completed within the next six months. I also very much enjoy creating the projections but any efforts in the past to delegate some of the forecasting responsibility have been met with readers telling me that it is my methods they trust and the reason they come here, which I take as a compliment even though it makes things more challenging. I very much appreciate comments like that but at the same time, it is a tremendous amount of work.

So, in the coming weeks and likely into October, I will reflect on my future with Baseball Notebook and in relation to that, the future of the company. Before we make pre-registration available for 2008, I felt it would important to offer some sort of assurance or clarification of my role for 2008 and frankly, as we discovered in 2006 when it appeared I would be stepping down, our company has become so built around me personally and my projections that it would be challenging, but not impossible, for it to continue without my active involvement and so that will be a factor in my future decisions.

I still have the many emails I received from kind readers who offered support and encouragement back in 2006 when I was then considering moving away from forecasting - so those loyal readers and their interest in my work will factor in my decision too. There are so many things to consider before I commit to another year. No matter what I decide, I remain determined to produce this book of my forecasting methods and even if I were somehow to reduce my role, there are various options here including publishing an annual forecasts book or reducing the length of time we publish projections, options that are reflected in our annual reader survey which is available as of today.  I encourage all readers, regardless of subscription status, to take the survey and offer us a few thoughts.

Since we're not offering pre-registration at this time, we need to have some way to communicate with readers should they remain interested in returning for another year. If you were a paid subscriber this season, you're automatically in our database and would be contacted if and when there is some news about 2008. If not, if you were on our old free mailing list (a newsletter that we essentially set aside once the blog and our RSS feed made it even faster to get info to users), you would also be notified immediately the moment there is news about 2008. If you are still uncertain whether we have your current email address, we have set up an account which you an write with a blank subject and comment to automatically ensure your name is captured for future notification, here:

Please note that emails to this account are not read - it is just an automatic capturing address for anyone who emails it.

In no way do I want readers to think that I'm completely done publishing baseball information. I think that the amount of information we published this year compared to other years and the number of entries I personally made should demonstrate to readers how committed we are and were to continuing to make the site better.  It's just that committing to another year is an important decision which deserves careful reflection and consideration and I don't want to mislead readers by having them sign up early for something that's different than what they might expect.

So, with another publishing season wrapping up, let me extend my most sincere appreciation to all of you.  I've received so many friendly and thoughtful emails the past year and have carried on many private dialogues when time permitted.  I wish all of you the best and promise to let readers know about my future the moment a decision becomes clear.  In the meantime, take care and enjoy the final days of the baseball season. - DL