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Good Luck, Bad Luck
published Friday, August 31, 2007
This season, we've introduced a new report designed
to highlight performances that may be outside of a player's long-term
sustainable ability. As we said, this report will run most Friday evenings up
until early September and, if you haven't already, we encourage you to check
out the first column in the series for details on what the categories mean,
how the lists are calculated and how to properly use them.
THIS IS OUR FINAL
"GOOD LUCK, BAD LUCK" REPORT OF THE 2007 SEASON.
All data is through play completed Thursday.
Highest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 140 at bats
If player has performed above typical league leading levels, number in
brackets refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually
singling at a 35% league-leading type singles rate:
Players in this section MAY be benefiting from some lucky singles, though in
the long run, the best singles hitters should eventually end up on this list.
ICHIRO SUZUKI, SEA, 577 AB, 33% 1B/BIP Rate, .352
JOEY GATHRIGHT, KC, 176 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .318
MATT KEMP, LAD, 224 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .339
WILLY TAVERAS, COL, 364 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .319
CHONE FIGGINS, LAA, 379 AB, 32% 1B/BIP Rate, .335
JAYSON WERTH, PHI, 189 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .323
REGGIE WILLITS, LAA, 374 AB, 31% 1B/BIP Rate, .294
NORRIS HOPPER, CIN, 235 AB, 30% 1B/BIP Rate, .328
MATT DIAZ, ATL, 303 AB, 29% 1B/BIP Rate, .350
B.J. UPTON, TB, 401 AB, 29% 1B/BIP Rate, .314
Lowest 1B/BIP Rate, minimum 140 at bats
If player has performed below typical league-worst levels, number in brackets
refers to what the player's average would be if he were actually singling at a
15% league-trailing type singles rate:
Players in this section MAY be experiencing some bad luck in terms of how
many singles are dropping in.
JASON LARUE, KC, 152 AB, 11% 1B/BIP Rate, .145 (.171)
JASON LANE, HOU, 165 AB, 12% 1B/BIP Rate, .176 (.202)
ERIC HINSKE, BOS, 143 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .217 (.226)
RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 196 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .153 (.160)
RUSSELL BRANYAN, STL, 141 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .199 (.204)
RICHIE SEXSON, SEA, 429 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .207 (.213)
ELIJAH DUKES, TB, 184 AB, 14% 1B/BIP Rate, .190 (.196)
JERRY HAIRSTON, TEX, 151 AB, 15% 1B/BIP Rate, .192 (.193)
JOHN BUCK, KC, 299 AB, 15% 1B/BIP Rate, .231
LUKE SCOTT, HOU, 331 AB, 15% 1B/BIP Rate, .257
Top Contact Rates, minimum 140 at bats.
Players in this section MAY be making contact more often than is sustainable
(which usually leads to a higher batting average), though eventually the best
contact hitters should eventually dominate this list.
PLACIDO POLANCO, DET, 503 AB, 95% Rate
JEFF KEPPINGER, CIN, 160 AB, 95% Rate
JUAN PIERRE, LAD, 581 AB, 94% Rate
DAVID ECKSTEIN, STL, 369 AB, 94% Rate
CESAR IZTURIS, PIT, 283 AB, 93% Rate
PAUL LO DUCA, NYM, 375 AB, 93% Rate
LUIS CASTILLO, NYM, 464 AB, 92% Rate
KEVIN MENCH, MIL, 272 AB, 92% Rate
KENJI JOHJIMA, SEA, 423 AB, 92% Rate
DUSTIN PEDROIA, BOS, 437 AB, 92% Rate
Bottom Contact Rates, minimum 140 at bats.
Players in this section MAY be making contact less often than they actually
can (which usually leads to a lower batting average), though the worst contact
hitters should eventually dominate this list.
JACK CUST, OAK, 329 AB, 60% Rate
RUSSELL BRANYAN, STL, 141 AB, 60% Rate
JASON LARUE, KC, 152 AB, 61% Rate
RYAN LANGERHANS, WAS, 196 AB, 62% Rate
RYAN HOWARD, PHI, 450 AB, 62% Rate
ROB BOWEN, OAK, 143 AB, 64% Rate
MARK REYNOLDS, ARI, 294 AB, 64% Rate
WILY MO PENA, WAS, 212 AB, 65% Rate
JOSH FIELDS, CHW, 306 AB, 66% Rate
JOE BORCHARD, FLO, 179 AB, 66% Rate
HIGHEST BABIP (minimum 420 batters faced)
Pitchers in this section MAY be experiencing a lot of bad luck in terms of
the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing
batters to make contact.
HORACIO RAMIREZ, SEA, 444 BFP, .339 BABIP
MIKE MUSSINA, NYY, 557 BFP, .339 BABIP
FELIX HERNANDEZ, SEA, 667 BFP, .338 BABIP
SCOTT OLSEN, FLO, 730 BFP, .336 BABIP
DAVID WELLS, LAD, 576 BFP, .335 BABIP
MIKE MAROTH, STL, 526 BFP, .334 BABIP
EDWIN JACKSON, TB, 621 BFP, .331 BABIP
SCOTT KAZMIR, TB, 791 BFP, .331 BABIP
KEVIN MILLWOOD, TEX, 667 BFP, .331 BABIP
ODALIS PEREZ, KC, 626 BFP, .329 BABIP
LOWEST BABIP (minimum 420 batters faced)
Pitchers in this section MAY be benefiting from some good luck in terms of
the number of hits that are falling in, relative to how often they're allowing
batters to make contact.
ORLANDO HERNANDEZ, NYM, 571 BFP, .212 BABIP
CHRIS YOUNG, SD, 581 BFP, .230 BABIP
A.J. BURNETT, TOR, 538 BFP, .238 BABIP
JASON MARQUIS, CHC, 747 BFP, .240 BABIP
JASON HIRSH, COL, 483 BFP, .249 BABIP
SHAUN MARCUM, TOR, 597 BFP, .255 BABIP
BARRY ZITO, SF, 721 BFP, .256 BABIP
BRIAN BANNISTER, KC, 604 BFP, .259 BABIP
JEREMY GUTHRIE, BAL, 677 BFP, .261 BABIP
OLIVER PEREZ, NYM, 659 BFP, .261 BABIP
Pitchers with ERA Worse Than ERMA (minimum 420 batters faced)
Number in brackets is ERMA
Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching better than their listed
ERA indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.
ANDREW SONNANSTINE, TB, 464 BFP, 5.73 (4.34)
ANTHONY REYES, STL, 448 BFP, 5.61 (4.64)
JASON JENNINGS, HOU, 445 BFP, 6.45 (5.55)
MARK HENDRICKSON, LAD, 494 BFP, 5.24 (4.45)
HORACIO RAMIREZ, SEA, 444 BFP, 6.45 (5.70)
DUSTIN MCGOWAN, TOR, 572 BFP, 4.00 (3.28)
JORGE SOSA, NYM, 429 BFP, 4.18 (3.46)
CLIFF LEE, CLE, 424 BFP, 6.41 (5.73)
BRADEN LOOPER, STL, 644 BFP, 4.45 (3.81)
BARRY ZITO, SF, 721 BFP, 4.45 (3.81)
Pitchers with ERA Better Than ERMA (minimum 420 batters faced)
Number in brackets is ERMA
Pitchers in this section MAY be actually pitching worse than their listed ERA
indicates, at least in terms of how the rest of their pitching line appears.
BRAD THOMPSON, STL, 498 BFP, 5.07 (6.14)
JOHN LACKEY, LAA, 790 BFP, 3.26 (4.07)
BYUNG-HYUN KIM, FLO, 829 BFP, 5.09 (5.76)
DOUG DAVIS, ARI, 775 BFP, 3.98 (4.60)
DONTRELLE WILLIS, FLO, 824 BFP, 5.01 (5.61)
ADAM WAINWRIGHT, STL, 744 BFP, 3.78 (4.31)
JOE KENNEDY, TOR, 475 BFP, 4.83 (5.35)
JOHN SMOLTZ, ATL, 732 BFP, 3.09 (3.61)
FAUSTO CARMONA, CLE, 771 BFP, 3.27 (3.75)
JUSTIN VERLANDER, DET, 730 BFP, 3.67 (4.15)
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