The SSDS Drafting Method: Part 2 of 3
"The Draft"
published December 14, 2006

Yesterday, I introduced something called the Skip to the Safe Draft System and gave you the rules for applying the system.  Today, I'll take you through Tuesday's actual mock draft to show you how I applied those rules to an actual draft, albeit a mock one.  I'm going to write about this draft in the rarely-used  present tense, even though it's a past event. I suspect that will give readers more realistic insight into applying the strategy and what my considerations were at different stages of the draft.

THE DRAFT

I have the third pick overall in this draft and, according to the ranking strategy, Johan Santana is my first choice. Let's go through the criteria for whether Santana is worthy of being my first pick:

(A) His projection for 2007 is comparable to what he did in 2006 so he becomes a candidate for drafting. The 2007 projection and the 2006 actual are, in fact, quite similar. This is a good opportunity to remind readers that one year of statistics doesn't tell the story. However, our projections already account for that in that they use multi-year numbers and other scouting data to form a projection. That is, if a player experienced what we believe was a fluke season last year, we're going to be giving them a projection in line with our real expectations. (B) As this is a snake draft, my next pick in this draft wouldn't be until late in the second round. I ask myself the question: Am I certain Johan Santana will be available to me late in round two? Readers will find the answer to this one obvious. No, I can't be certain and in fact, there's a good chance that someone will take him by then, even in a group that just prior to the draft openly expressed a general consensus that few pitchers were worth drafting in the first couple of rounds, with Santana being mentioned as an obvious exception.

So, with my third pick in the draft, I select Johan Santana third overall, just after Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard were selected. As the first and second rounds proceed, I've got my SKIP and CANDIDATE columns filled in but in fact, in an online draft, there's usually enough time to do this as the draft goes on.  This way, you can avoid half the work that's unnecessary and involves an area of the ranking list you'll never make it below. It's up to you and I tend to put maximum effort into these things. Here again is how the top of my ranking sheet shapes up.  Ignore the TAKEN column as this is a later copy:

Even between my first and second picks, my ranking sheet shows that I need to skip Jake Peavy. The projection for Peavy is strong here but I've tagged him as a SKIP because that 16 win, 3.20 ERA projected is far better than the 11 win, 4.09 ERA mark he posted last year. Sure, it's a great projection that has high projected value but the system classifies it as a risk and tells us to move on.

That has my sights set on Chris Carpenter, as you can see. By the time my second pick comes around, we've identified Carpenter as a candidate because his projection is in line with or even worse than what he did last year. But there's a problem. Carpenter doesn't meet our criteria about potentially lasting until our next pick, which is actually only five picks away (because this is a snake draft). In fact, going to the issue of potential reaction, I know that if I take Carpenter now, after taking Santana in the first round, the perception will be that I took him a bit too early. That makes it an easy choice then to flag Carpenter as someone to come back to but for now, not worthy of using our second pick. In fact, taking any pitcher with this second pick, even a candidate, goes against the perception philosophy as since I took Santana in the first round, not a single pitcher has been selected! In fact, this is an area I tend to disagree with most experts as pitchers don't usually start going until the third or fourth rounds. While I agree that the 50/50 split on valuation doesn't work well, a 65/35 or 70/30 split does and certainly, there have to be pitchers worthy of consideration in those first couple of rounds.

In any case, the perception rule tells me that taking any pitcher with my second pick is too early as I'm fairly sure that at least until my next pick, in just a few minutes, not many of my top remaining pitching candidates will be gone. At this point, I've decided that Carpenter is almost sure to last until round three. So, both Carpenter and Halladay, while both being candidates for my team, have to be passed.

By this point, I've decided I'll be taking a hitter (for purposes of perception consideration) but of my next candidates, Pujols and Carlos Beltran are gone. Miguel Cabrera would be the top-ranked remaining hitter but he earned a "skip" when I projected him to hit .340 with 34 home runs, 99 runs scored and 121 RBI. When I compare this projection to Cabrera's 26 home runs, 112 runs scored and 114 RBI, I make the difficult decision that the projection is superior enough to his 2006 season that at least for now, I'm going to mark him as a skip and come back to revisit that if he's still out there a bit later.

Continuing down in search of a candidate hitter, all of Matt Holliday, Ryan Howard, Jose Reyes, David Wright, David Ortiz, Alfonso Soriano and Carl Crawford are already taken. That leaves Grady Sizemore. Sizemore's projection is in line with what he did last year. I'm projecting a bit higher batting average but overall, the projected run total is actually much lower than his league-leading mark of a year ago and I feel that this forecast and his 2006 season are comparable in value. So, I ask myself the question: Will Sizemore last until my next pick in round three? At this stage, I'm not certain and believe it would be about 60/40 considering the premium on hitters here so far. I think he might last that far but I'm not sure. So, I ask myself the question about perceived value. Will this pick of Sizemore be shocking to everyone here or is this an approximately correct pick perception-wise? To me, it's borderline and I feel that it's not too unusual and Sizemore's real perceived value probably does fall in this range (he is after all a player who hit almost 30 home runs, scored 134 runs, stole 22 bases and hit .290).

So, my pick here is Sizemore and that now gives me Santana and Sizemore with my first two picks.

My third pick comes soon in this snake draft, just five picks later in fact, and now I'm back to Carpenter. At this point, I won't have another pick until late in round four and I'm almost positive Carpenter won't last until then. While I do already have the best pitcher in the draft in Santana, I now go ahead and use my third pick to go after another top starter with Carpenter as my third pick.

By the time the draft comes all the way around to me again in round four, I'm back in that same position of realizing that pitchers aren't perceived highly by this group, which I had suspected would be the case among a group of expert players. That means all these pitching candidates I've flagged who are still out there, including John Smoltz, our highest remaining ranked pitcher, just can't be taken with a fourth round pick. Halladay, not to anyone's surprise, was gone in the third round but until my pick in the fourth round, just six pitchers have been taken and two of them (Santana and Carpenter) have been taken by me.

So, I'm in search of another hitter. Rocco Baldelli would have been my top-ranked remaining hitter here but he's a definite skip because his projection is so much better than what he did in 2006. He probably would have failed the perception test as well but it makes no difference as we're skipping him anyway under the primary skip rule.

That leaves Andruw Jones, projected to hit .260 with 43 home runs and 108 RBI. This is actually less of a projected season than he actually had in 2006 when he hit .262 with 41 HR and 129 RBI and not only does Jones earn a candidate flag here but I'm relatively confident that he's about to be drafted at anytime if I don't take him now, so I do and Jones becomes my fourth pick in the draft.

As the short side of the snake draft returns to me quickly for round five, the trend has become clear that pitchers just aren't going quickly and so in most cases, I can leave my pitching candidates as they are. John Smoltz, my highest ranked remaining pitcher, remains out there and I suspect that if I take him now, it would violate the perception rule if nothing else as no one seems to value pitchers much on this day.

My highest ranked remaining hitter at this point, at least among those I haven't skipped already, would have been Prince Fielder. This one's a tough one but I flag Fielder as a skip. I have him projected to establish a new career-high in home runs with 33 and 102 RBI, up from 28 HR and 81 RBI last year and enough of a difference that the projection is slightly in the risky category.

That takes me down to Jermaine Dye. Dye's forecast is for a .280 season with 34 home runs, 84 runs scored and 95 RBI and 7 steals. Looking at Dye's 2006 totals, I see a hitter who had an even better season, hitting .315 with 44 home runs, 103 runs scored, 120 RBI and 7 steals. Dye's projection is easily below what he did last year and that makes him a candidate here.

This is a good chance for me to point something out regarding career years. I wouldn't be surprised if when/if I picked Dye, at least one expert in the league would justifiably conclude that I've been fooled by a career year and am expecting him to repeat. Of course, it doesn't matter if someone thinks I took Dye for the wrong reasons. I'm trying to be successful in fantasy baseball and not impress my opponents but when we look at the Dye forecast here, we're acknowledging (to ourself) that we don't expect him to repeat last year but he still is going to have a valuable season, if he stays healthy.

As there will be a wide gap between this pick and the next one, I'm split on whether Dye would make it until I get another pick and since that means I'm not certain he will last, I go ahead and take him with my fifth pick.

By round six, I've skipped several more players, including Chad Tracy, whose projection is too good compared to last year, and ultimately settle on Chipper Jones, continuing to avoid pitchers until the trend shifts among the other owners. There's no need to start taking pitchers until everyone else does here as I've already got the deepest pitching staff so far, or at least I believe I do anyway. Jones, for me, is the best candidate hitter left and since I've decided not to take a pitcher,

Round seven comes back to me quickly and this is where I start to categorize beyond just a hitting/pitching split. That is, I start to get a sense that closers are on the verge of going quickly. Some of the big closer names have gone in the past few rounds, including Francisco Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan and B.J. Ryan. I still have some starting pitchers ranked high but my perception test tells me that they'll last until my next pick but that closers won't necessarily last that long. Instead of jumping to the next-ranked hitter, I spot on the way down some closers who I don't believe will last, closers who are higher ranked than the best remaining hitter but lower-ranked than the best remaining starting pitcher.  This is about the closest you will ever see me come to implementing a variation on position scarcity and to go after a player for this reason.  In other words, you wouldn't see me digging deep to draft an ordinary hitting catcher just because catchers are going fast.  Closers contribute in a category (i.e. saves) that starters don't but catchers hit in the same five categories that outfielders do.

I narrow my selection down to one of two. I'm either going to take Takashi Saito or J.J. Putz. Saito is a tough one. Sometimes, a projection can be on par with what a player did a year ago but I might still drop it in the risky "skip" category because it is based on such limited information. I do have faith in my Saito forecast as being the best I can make on the data available but I feel it barely falls into the risky category. On another day, I might have thought differently. In any case, I look at my forecast for J.J. Putz. While I think it's strong, he actually had a better year in 2006 than I'm forecasting in 2007. With my belief that closers are about to start going and that Putz will not last until the long side of the snake draft comes all the way back to me again, I take Putz in round seven.

As it turns out, my suspicion about closers proves to be correct. By the time I get my next pick, all of Saito, Chad Cordero, Chris Ray and Huston Street are taken. Unfortunately, I have to accept that I guessed wrong about John Smoltz's perceived value as just two picks after I take Putz, Ryan Dodson of KFFL snaps up Smoltz.

In fact, by rounds seven and eight, the tide has turned in terms of pitching as 57% of selections during the start of round seven and my first pick late in round eight are pitchers. Thus, I don't hesitate to take my highest ranked remaining candidate player, C.C. Sabathia, who I'm pretty sure won't last much longer. Whether Sabathia lasted this late because of minor surgery at year end or if it's just because starting pitching wasn't going as quickly in this draft remains unclear to me. In any case, I was glad to add him.

As round nine comes back to me, none of my remaining high-ranked pitchers are guys I feel wouldn't last even another long round and so I shift back to the hitting side. The highest ranked remaining candidate hitter is Jeff Francouer. There will be eighteen picks between now and my next pick and Francoeur, while offering neither speed nor much of a batting average boost, did still hit almost 30 home runs, score more than 80 and drive in 100 runs in 2006. As he's the highest ranked remaining hitter and I suspect he probably won't last much more than another round or two, I make him my ninth round pick.

Round ten will see me make the first mistake under the SSDS rules. When my round ten pick rolls around, I still don't have a pitcher who I don't think will last until my next pick, especially since my round eleven pick is just five picks away. My highest ranked remaining hitter, at least among those not marked to skip, is Brad Hawpe. At this point I have four of five outfield spots filled and a utility spot still open. I take Hawpe here and then one of the opponents types "Hawpe?" as if it's a surprise pick. As soon as I see that, I reconsider that Hawpe probably would have lasted another round or two. I'm not entirely disappointed by getting him but it's the first technical error in terms of applying the system and though you're always trying to avoid them, I could have probably done better here. In fact, if I had concluded that Hawpe would last two more rounds, I could have taken my next highest ranked remaining hitter in Lyle Overbay, who as it turns out, would be taken within the next two rounds.

As round eleven comes back to me and I realize I've taken Hawpe perhaps two picks too early, I go ahead and take my highest-ranked remaining pitcher in Kelvim Escobar, who isn't going to last much longer now that the focus has turned to pitchers.

The subsequent three rounds are text book according to what I've described here as I draft Adam LaRoche, Nick Johnson and Joe Crede in rounds 12-14. After picking Crede, I have no room left for any first basemen, third basemen or outfielders as all of those positions, the corner infield and the utility spots are now full, which is fine. While the rest clearly focus on position scarcity, most readers know I'm not an advocate of filling the weak positions just for the sake of filling them and I'm content to fill my catching and infield spots with the best of what's left... later.

Round fifteen offers another example of the Jermaine Dye effect. That is, as I draft Mike Mussina as my top ranked remaining pitcher, I'm sure there are opponents who falsely suspect that I'm a believer in his 2006 season. Actually, the projection for Mussina is for a much worse season and for that reason, he didn't get skipped because even with the bad projection, he's STILL highly ranked on my ranking sheets.

By the time we enter the final rounds (rounds 16-23), perception has now become pretty much pointless as it's impossible, usually, to recognize who's going to last much longer. The only possible reason perception becomes an issue here, often, is that many teams are usually looking for catchers, closers or shortstops late in a draft and there can be a single player out there that everyone knows is about to be taken. Otherwise, we're pretty much drafting the best available player here, as long as they're not tagged as a skip player.

So, I start to get the best remaining player who isn't a skip and perception consideration begins to become a non issue.  Rounds 16-21 see me take Ty Wigginton (who qualifies at second base along with first base and third base), Ray Durham (who was definitely on the verge of being drafted, which was immediately acknowledged by at least one opponent), Rich Aurilia, Bengie Molina and Paul Lo Duca. At this point, all my hitting spots are full and Molina became the first SKIP player whom I took because the gap between him and the other remaining candidate players was so wide.

In Round 21, I make another perception error, which I'm content to make and are always part of the drafting game. I'd rather not take a player too early and miss out on him than waste an early pick on a player I could have gotten much later. Even as early as round fifteen, there was a single pitcher left who did have a "skip" listed in my strategy sheet but now was so far highly ranked above all the remaining candidate pitchers, that he had now become a candidate instead of a skip. That is, even if I used only his 2006 season to project value (value below the 2007 projected value), he would still be better than any of the candidates left. In fact, this had been the case even as I took Kelvim Escobar and Mike Mussina. My guess was that in a mixed league with only twelve teams, Clay Hensley would last very late into the draft, probably to the final two rounds. Thus, I couldn't justify taking him any earlier.

In round 21, I was thinking it was probably time to take Clay Hensley, feeling that my suspicions that he would last late into the draft were now proven. The gap between Hensley's projected value, even with a "skip" marked for him, was now so wide between him and everyone who wasn't marked with a skip that Hensley was clearly the best and safest choice out there.

I weighed whether I thought he would last one more round and looked at the other team rosters and needs out there. Many teams were still in need of pitchers but I felt that Hensley would last another round because there were still decent starting pitchers and I didn't think anyone (other than me) would think much of a 27-year-old pitcher who had never won more than 11 games. Thus, I took Jose Contreras here, thinking he wouldn't last another round and I wanted to end up with both Contreras and Hensley. Seven picks later, Rob Hurtt of The Sporting News snapped up Hensley and this became the second time in the draft (I had made the same mistake with Smoltz) where I passed on a player expecting to get him in the subsequent round.

Anyway, as I missed out on Hensley, I faced another tough decision in terms of filling the final two pitching spots. I had marked many skips now and was left with a name that was borderline in terms of whether he was a "safe" or "skip" pitcher and that's Jason Isringhausen. Isringhausen's projection was in line with what he did last year but his health remains uncertain. The Cardinals say that he's to be the closer if healthy and based on the other names left on my sheet, I felt that if I flagged Isringhausen as a skip, I would be moving to safer picks whose potential maximum value was far below Isringhausen's projected value. In what became the first case of me drafting what probably should have been a "skip" pitchers (Hensley otherwise would have been the first and on the hitting side, Ben Molina was arguably the only one I had taken), I drafted Jason Isringhausen with my second-last pick of the night.

As round twenty-three came around to me, I had to pick up a pitcher and this was easy as Orlando Hernandez, who was still available, was both marked as a candidate and there was only one other available pitcher out there with comparable value and that was Scot Shields. I took Hernandez.

Tomorrow: The Results...