Most of my baseball writing time is not spent on translating minor league performance but rather using it as a piece of the overall puzzle to determine what a player will be likely to do in the future.  In fact, our own minor league translations exist because of the importance of being able to properly read past performance in projecting future performance and the bulk of my efforts are focused on converting the past performances into meaningful predictors of the future.

Going back to the first and most rough of translation sets many years ago, I found that there were certain thresholds players could achieve at different ages, in terms of their translations, that would indicate potential greatness.  For example, a nineteen year old hitter who walks about 50-60 times in a season will, on average, develop into the kind of player who will one day lead the league in walks whereas a twenty-four year old who walks 50-60 times in a season isn’t going to improve much more at that skill, except late in his career when his other skills have sufficiently diminished where he has no choice but to walk if he’s to offset the inevitable decline in his other hitting skills.  These thresholds tell me that if a twenty year old hits 20 home runs, that it is a markedly more significant accomplishment than if a twenty-three year old hits 27 home runs.  On paper, the second season looks better but the room for improvement in the twenty year old is dramatic and from that group, with all else being equal, we must prefer the 20 home run hitter over the 27 home run hitter who is three years his senior.

On the pitching side of the equation, these thresholds also exist.  For example, young pitchers who strike out many batters and walk many batters often develop into outstanding pitchers by the time they hit their prime because they gain the control that’s been holding back the quality of their performance, and thus their translation.  A twenty-six year old who is walking 100 batters a season is in trouble, even if he’s got a rocket for an arm.  The thresholds tell us that most young minor league relievers, as opposed to starters, don’t make it very far, not because they are ineffective pitchers but because that they pitch in relief in the minors reveals where they rank on the organizational depth chart and thus, reveals the perception of their Major League organization, which counts for a lot.  Certainly there are exceptions to every rule but dealing in probabilities, it is rarer for great minor league relievers to end up as great major league relievers.  This isn’t to say that there aren’t at least a few relievers whose performances can be ignored and there are several such as Jesse Crain and Shea Douglas who have to get our attention, regardless of whether they make our top prospect list.

Other indicators sometimes show that a pitcher’s so-called “great” stuff which doesn’t translate well to Major League performance can in reality be a true indicator that he’s really not as good as everyone thinks he is.  For example, last year when interpreting the translations, it was an unpopular choice that I left Jesse Foppert off the top 100 pitching prospects list and here was my response then, published here at the website: “(Foppert’s 2002 translation is for) a 5.52 ERA.  In 132 translated innings, he allowed 139 translated hits, 74 walks and struck out 143 (to his credit)… On the same Fresno team, there were three pitchers who had more innings and a better ERA.”  I went on to mention two of those three pitchers in my response and the two were Kurt Ainsworth and Jerome Williams.  I wanted to draw readers’ attention to these two with the reminder that “Williams, who made our top 100 list, is actually about a year and a half younger than Foppert and posted a superior ERA…”

I quote that response not as an “I told you so” but rather to demonstrate that the translations can sometimes tell us things that our instincts might otherwise fail to do.  In this case, Foppert went on to make it to the Giants and had a year slightly better than his 2002 translation with a 5.03 ERA, to be expected as a pitcher improves as he ages.  Ainsworth, admittedly older and like Foppert, not included on the top 100 list, was off to a great start to the 2003 season where in 11 starts he was 5-4 with a 3.82 ERA before he went down to injury.  As for the less-appreciated Williams (less appreciated at the time anyway), he had a stellar year in his first Major League season, going 7-5 in 21 starts with a 3.30 ERA in 131 innings.  The statistics told us that Williams, as a younger pitcher than Foppert and coming off a better translated season, was worth a look and he managed to make our top 100 pitching prospect list where the popular Foppert failed to, even though every other publication projected and continues to project great things for Foppert. 

Of course all this isn’t to say that Foppert won’t one day be a good or even a great pitcher.  He may very well live up to the expectations of the many when he recovers from Tommy John surgery.  When you’re making a top 100 list, as I said then, you’re basically talking about the future elite players in the game at different points in time.  Some players will peak three years from now and others will hit their prime ten years from now.  Foppert could become a top 20 pitcher without ever being among the best in the game and still deserve to be left off of a top-100 pitching prospects list as others peak at various times.

Since I prefer the threshold method to build up prospect lists, for better or for worse, I will frequently leave off popular names whose translations don't indicate the greatness that the other so-called “tools” of their game might imply.  In the past, making such lists, I’ve been criticized for leaving off many “can’t miss” prospects whose minor league translations didn’t sell me on their future skills, including Ruben Rivera, Paul Wilson, Kris Benson and Matt White, among others.  Certainly, the system will miss the occasional great player but in the long run it works wonders at flagging players of interest and since it leaves little to human analysis but more to players in different age groups achieving statistical thresholds, it seems to catch players whose skills we might otherwise miss if it weren’t for the translations.  Even if your favorite player doesn't appear here, there may be others on this list that should get your attention if they haven't already.

Remember that “there is no such thing as a sure thing” and if you are really in search of the future stars, you must not buy into the hype that surrounds some of the huge minor league signing bonuses offered to players and so on.  It is understandable that the reader might want a prospect list to contain the name of a player who plays for your favorite team but the only way to know whether a prospect list is correct is to return to it at least five or ten years down the line and often, perhaps longer as many Major League players don’t hit their prime until their early thirties.

One thing our lists here will not do is consider a player who spent the bulk of their time playing lower than Single-A because our translations are only being extended down to that level.  Setting a reasonable criteria to be defined as a so-called prospect is difficult but for purposes of these two lists, we’ve used the following:

Minimum Criteria:

• The player must have at least 50 translated innings or 200 translated at bats in 2003 at Single-A, Double-A and Triple-A combined.  It is allowed for a player to have played substantially in the majors in 2003 but his eligibility for the list must still be met by playing at these combined three minor league levels more than these cutoff amounts.
• A player cannot have been older than 25 years old for the majority of the 2003 season.

Basically, the way the lists are put together is that all translations are painstakingly reviewed in the context of thresholds that project what the player will look like when he eventually is in his prime.  Certainly, most of the players on these lists will suffer when they first arrive in the Major Leagues and few or none should be expected to instantly live up to their eventual expectations.  We endeavor to create a model of what type of player we’ll see when the player peaks and then evaluate that prime performance against all of the other peaks for all of the minor league population.  As it’s an inexact science to say whether a future batting title contender who hits no home runs is more valuable than a future .250s type who hits 30 home runs, we have to insert some opinion into the actual sort but in general, it is fairly obvious that what we might project for the eventual prime of the #1 ranked hitter is clearly superior to the #10 hitter on the list and so on.  Where applicable, I’ve inserted comments for some players whose translations or threshold achievements were of particular interest.  These aren’t lists in descending order of best so-called tools but rather the rankings of what the future holds for each player based on what their prime should look like projecting far into the future beginning with their 2003 translations…

The team listed is the organization the player was in at the end of the 2003 minor league season though I have also updated the list with some Rule 5 notes, where applicable.

TOP 100 HITTERS

1. Prince Fielder, 1b, Milwaukee Brewers:  Projects as an eventual Triple Crown threat, he is going to end up hitting for a much better average than many expect.  He has the power to lead the league in home runs and with the patience he has at his age, he will eventually become selective enough to walk 125-135 times in a season.  In some ways, the good career his father had misleads many to project that Prince is a similar type of player, especially since he’s physically built the same way.  The comparison is invalid as Prince will take many more walks and hit for a higher average.  Where Cecil Fielder, when he was at his best, was a consistent 30-50 home run hitter, he never topped .280 in a full season and he struck out much more often than Prince will.  One day, Prince Fielder will be the best player in baseball.
2. David Wright, 3b, New York Mets:  He will become a consistent batting title contender with 40-45 home run power, 100+ walk ability and an ability to steal 15-20 bases.
3. Andy Marte, 3b, Atlanta Braves:  Destined to a be a plus-.300 hitter in the Majors with 35-40 home run power, close to 100 walks and plenty of gap/doubles ability.
4. Jeff Francoeur, OF, Atlanta Braves:  His translation was somewhat unexciting but he’s going to develop into a .300-.310 hitter with 35 home run power and 10+ stolen base ability.
5. Jayson Nix, 2B, Colorado Rockies:  His 2003 numbers translated to a .227 average but by the time he reaches his prime, he’ll be a .315-.325 type with 35 home run power, 20-25 stolen base ability and around 80 walks a season.
6. Josh Barfield, 2B, San Diego Padres:  Jesse Barfield’s son is going to become a perennial batting title contender with 25-30 home run power, around 80 walks a year and 10-15 steals.
7. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins:  Not likely to become a big power hitter, Mauer’s going to be a .310-.320s type hitter with more walks than most catchers and an amazing ability to make contact.
8. Jeremy Hermida, OF, Florida Marlins:  Destined to become a 105-115 walk hitter with 20-25 stolen base speed and 15 home run power, he’s going to end up a consistent .300 hitter.
9. J.J. Hardy, SS, Milwaukee Brewers:  Even with what should become an amazing ability to make contact, he doesn’t have the stroke to end up as more than a consistent .270-.280 hitter but he should produce as a 25-30 home run hitter with 75-85 walks a year.
10. Justin Humphries, 1B, Houston Astros
11. Brent Clevlen, OF, Detroit Tigers
12. Franklin Gutierrez, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers:  He’s going to eventually be a tremendous home run hitter and hit for a good average but he’s unlikely to become a patient hitter, which puts him a bit behind the others here.
13. Wes Bankston, OF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays:  The only thing holding him back from being a top ten type is he will have problems keeping his batting average up.
14. Bronson Sardinha, OF, New York Yankees
15. Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
16. Ruben Gotay, 2B, Kansas City Royals:  He’s going to develop 25 home run power.
17. Brent Colamarino, 1B, Oakland Athletics:  Will become a low-average, medium-walk ability, 30 home run hitter.
18. B.J. Upton, SS, Tampa Bay Devil Rays:  Think .290 with 15 home runs, 90-100 walks and 30 steals by the time he’s in his prime.
19. Justin Huber, C, New York Mets:  I don’t have him hitting for the high average that others do but I do see a .250s hitter with 35-40 home run power if he plays enough.
20. Rene Rivera, C, Seattle Mariners
21. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Florida Marlins:  Thanks to the 2003 post-season, everyone already knows about him, unfortunately.
22. Grady Sizemore, of, Cleveland Indians
23. Alberto Callaspo, 2B, Anaheim Angels:  Not destined for any big power numbers but he’s going to develop into a consistent .300 hitter with amazing doubles ability who rarely strikes out and steals 15-20 bases.
24. Donald Murphy, 2B, Kansas City Royals
25. Kevin Youkilis, 3B, Boston Red Sox:  Will be a 100-110 walk hitter in the majors but his average and lack of power will hold him back a bit.  He should still have a good career.
26. Dan Johnson, 1B, Oakland Athletics
27. Kila Kaaihue, 1B, Kansas City Royals
28. Brian McCann, C, Atlanta Braves:  Will be a .260s catcher who can hit 30-35 home runs.  He won’t walk much and that may hold back his playing time.
29. Jose Lopez, SS, Seattle Mariners
30. Guillermo Quiroz, C, Toronto Blue Jays
31. Jeff Salazar, OF, Colorado Rockies
32. Dustin Yount, 1B, Baltimore Orioles
33. Chad Spann, 3B, Boston Red Sox
34. Luis Cruz, SS, San Diego Padres
35. Rudy Guillen, OF, New York Yankees
36. Jorge Cortes, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
37. Jeff Mathis, C, Anaheim Angels
38. Adam LaRoche, 1B, Atlanta Braves
39. Jason Stokes, 1B, Florida Marlins:  He took a big step back from last year but he’s still going to become a good-hitting Major League first baseman before he’s done.
40. Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies:  He will develop 35 home run power and he would be much higher on the list if I were not expecting a 180 strikeout season in his future.  Unlike others who do the same thing, he should manage to keep his batting average in the mid .250s and should walk about 60 times a year too.
41. Juan Tejeda, 1B, Detroit Tigers
42. Jon Knott, OF, San Diego Padres
43. Shaun Larkin, 3B, Cleveland Indians
44. Terry Jones, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies
45. Dioner Navarro, C, New York Yankees
46. Damaso Espinosa, 3B, Kansas City Royals
47. Chris Shelton, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates:  Drafted by the Tigers as the first pick in this winter's Rule 5 draft, he is capable of hitting 15-20 home runs right now and will eventually be a guy with 20-25 home run power and 75-80 walk ability.
48. Trey Dyson, OF, Cleveland Indians
49. Larry Broadway, 1B, Montreal Expos
50. Jarred Ball, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
51. Willy Aybar, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers
52. Josh Kroeger, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
53. Chris Bass, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
54. Jason Kubel, OF, Minnesota Twins
55. Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies
56. Jason Cooper, OF, Cleveland Indians
57. Paul McAnulty, 1B, San Diego Padres
58. Shin-soo Choo, OF, Seattle Mariners
59. Sean Luellwitz, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
60. Rodney Choy Foo, 3B, Cleveland Indians
61. Trent Oeltjen, OF, Minnesota Twins
62. Corey Hart, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers:  A lot of people have him higher and I do see him as an eventual .275 hitter with 15-25 home runs and 15-20 steals.  Because he’s not going to walk much, I’m cautious about his peak projected value.
63. Victor Diaz, 2B, New York Mets
64. Jared Abruzzo, C, Anaheim Angels
65. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
66. Alex Romero, OF, Minnesota Twins
67. Chris Fallon, 1B, Kansas City Royals
68. Mike Snyder, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
69. Andy Rohleder, OF, Florida Marlins
70. Frank Diaz, OF, Montreal Expos
71. Scott Thorman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
72. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Boston Red Sox:  He’s an interesting low-average, medium power-speed combination who will one day hit 20-25 home runs while stealing 30 bases.
73. Nathan McLouth, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
74. Chad Tracy, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks
75. Jon-Mark Sprowl, C, New York Yankees
76. John Santor, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
77. James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
78. Jeremy Reed, OF, Chicago White Sox:  Will become an eventual plus-.300 hitter with modest 10-20 home run power and 20-25 stolen base ability.
79. Matt Diaz, OF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
80. Sergio Santos, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
81. Wes Timmons, 3B, Atlanta Braves
82. Ryan Doumit, C, Pittsburgh Pirates
83. Dallas McPherson, 3B, Anaheim Angels
84. Mike Huggins, 1B, Baltimore Orioles
85. Nathan Panther, OF, Cleveland Indians
86. Jason Botts, 1B, Texas Rangers
87. Jonny Gomes, OF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
88. John-Paul Davis, 1B, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
89. Fernando Cortez, 2B, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
90. Rodney Medina, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
91. Matt Carson, OF, New York Yankees
92. Gregor Blanco, OF, Atlanta Braves
93. John Gall, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
94. Garrett Atkins, 3B, Colorado Rockies
95. J.J. Davis, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
96. John Baker, C, Oakland Athletics
97. Woody Cliffords, OF, Baltimore Orioles
98. Jesse Gutierrez, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
99. Vince Harrison, 3B, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
100. Nick Swisher, OF, Oakland Athletics

TOP 100 PITCHERS

1. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies:  A great lefty with outstanding poise, he will need to gain control if he’s to live up to expectations but by 2006, he’s going to be a great pitcher who rarely allows a home run.  He was skipped over by many organizations because they saw him as a huge injury risk.
2. Rich Harden, Oakland Athletics:  Already arrived in the majors, the A’s succeed in doing it again, developing a huge pitcher from within.
3. Rafael Soriano, Seattle Mariners:  He’s ready for big time things and he’s going to get a shot this season.
4. Chad Gaudin, Tampa Bay Devil Rays:  He doesn’t project as a big strikeout guy and also walks too many but he keeps the ball down and is effective enough to be a big part of the rotation within three years.
5. John Maine, Baltimore Orioles
6. Grant Balfour, Minnesota Twins:  He’s on the high end of age in terms of having a great career but he’s going to settle into the major leagues as an ace pitcher before long.
7. Neal Cotts, Chicago White Sox:  Big-time control problems are the only thing holding him back from greatness.
8. Chin-hui Tsao, Colorado Rockies:  It’s too bad for his stats that he could end up pitching half of his games in Colorado but he should still put up good strikeout numbers.
9. Jon Connolly, Detroit Tigers:  Here’s hoping the Tigers don’t rush him to the majors, especially since he doesn’t project as a strikeout pitcher.
10. Brandon Claussen, Cincinnati Reds:  Everyone already knows about him and he’s a bit older than the other prospects but he’s going to be the ace of the staff before he’s through.
11. Luis Mendoza, Boston Red Sox:  Even without blazing stuff, he’s going to be an excellent pitcher.
12. Kirk Saarloos, Houston Astros:  He’s done all he can do in the minors and what’s held him back is he takes a completely different approach in the majors than he does in the minors.  If he could pretend he’s facing Triple-A hitters, and pitch exactly as he does at that level, he’d move to the upper half of the staff.
13. Justin Duchscherer, Oakland Athletics:  Like Harden, he’s already arrived and he should give Oakland continued dominance in the rotation.  He already has pinpoint control, better than most current Major League pitchers.
14. Edgar Gonzalez, Arizona Diamondbacks
15. Joe Blanton, Oakland Athletics:  He’s going to be a great control pitcher.
16. Juan Dominguez, Texas Rangers
17. Vince Perkins, Toronto Blue Jays:  One of the least known pitchers to be this high or better on the ranking list, Perkins would be even higher if he had even some pretense of control.  He is wild to the extreme but in his early twenties, he has enough time to learn how to get the ball over the plate.  If he could do that, the rest of his arsenal is already exceptional as he would rarely allow a hit and even more rarely, a home run.  Given the type of pitcher he is, I think he’s more likely to live up to his ranking here if he ends up as a reliever.
18. Mike Wood, Oakland Athletics:  That the A’s have four pitchers in the top eighteen prospects speaks volumes to their ability to develop young pitching.
19. Sean Burnett, Pittsburgh Pirates:  That he doesn’t throw hard turns many off but he consistently gets results and should soon arrive.
20. Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians:  He competes with Justin Duchscherer for having the best control among the top prospects and in his case, he’s going to need it as he lets hitters put the ball in play about as much as any pitcher.  He still has good stuff if he could just keep the ball down a bit more.
21. Jeremy Griffiths, New York Mets
22. Dan Haren, St. Louis Cardinals
23. Lenny Dinardo, New York Mets:  Drafted by Boston in the Rule 5 draft.
24. Bobby Jenks, Anaheim Angels:  He would be better suited for the bullpen.
25. Chadd Blasko, Chicago Cubs
26. Jeremy Johnson, Detroit Tigers
27. Jerome Williams, San Francisco Giants
28. Donnie Bridges, Florida Marlins
29. Drew Dickinson, Oakland Athletics
30. Brad Weis, Oakland Athletics
31. Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals:  That he’s rated so low here will bother many readers who want to see a list that goes with the general consensus.  I do think Greinke’s going to become the type of pitcher who can pitch 200 innings and walk fewer than 40 batters but I also think his fastball is too straight, the kind hitters can really drive and I could see him developing into a good number two starter who allows too many home runs but keeps his ERA consistently in the mid 4’s and gives his team a chance to win.  Unlike many others, I’m not projecting the next Cy Young.
32. Seung Song, Montreal Expos
33. Brian Falkenborg, Seattle Mariners
34. Francisco Cruceta, Cleveland Indians
35. Luis Martinez, Milwaukee Brewers
36. Adriano Rosario, Arizona Diamondbacks
37. Greg Miller, Los Angeles Dodgers
38. Jason Hammel, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
39. Dustin McGowan, Toronto Blue Jays
40. Dustin Nippert, Arizona Diamondbacks
41. Dave Gassner, Toronto Blue Jays
42. Bobby Brownlies, Chicago Cubs
43. Shane Loux, Detroit Tigers
44. Jose Garcia, New York Yankees
45. Anderson Garcia, New York Yankees
46. Rob Henkel, Detroit Tigers
47. Jeff Francis, Colorado Rockies
48. Chris Capuano, Arizona Diamondbacks
49. Anthony Lerew, Atlanta Braves
50. Ian Oquendo, Pittsburgh Pirates (Editorial Note added 2006: Ian Oquendo is now named "Ian Snell")
51. Travis Blackley, Seattle Mariners
52. Justin Wayne, Florida Marlins
53. T.A. Fulmer, Seattle Mariners
54. Kevin Correia, San Francisco Giants
55. Michael Howell, Detroit Tigers
56. Taylor Buchholz, Philadelphia Phillies
57. Aaron Harang, Cincinnati Reds
58. Bill Murphy, Oakland Athletics
59. Enemencio Pacheco, Chicago White Sox
60. Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies
61. John Patterson, Arizona Diamondbacks
62. Rett Johnson, Seattle Mariners
63. Edwin Jackson, Los Angeles Dodgers
64. Jonathan Albaladejo, Pittsburgh Pirates
65. Jared Gothreaux, Houston Astros
66. Jon Adkins, Chicago White Sox
67. Ervin Santana, Anaheim Angels
68. Kevin Gregg, Anaheim Angels
69. Shane Komine, Oakland Athletics
70. Matt Riley, Baltimore Orioles
71. Edwin Moreno, Texas Rangers
72. Greg Bruso, San Francisco Giants
73. Josh Teekel, St. Louis Cardinals
74. Ryan Ketchner, Seattle Mariners:  Downgraded from last year (in 2003, Ketchner was #8 behind a then-unknown #7 pitcher named Dontrelle Willis) only because he didn’t advance up the ladder as quickly as he could have and thus loses a year, he was sharp pitching for the Inland Empire team and he’s got all the tools to eventually be a solid major leaguer.  He’s still plenty young enough to have a great career and 2004 will be pivotal.
75. Nate Robertson, Detroit Tigers
76. Manny Parra, Milwaukee Brewers
77. Jesse Crain, Minnesota Twins
78. Justin Jones, Chicago Cubs
79. Brad Thomas, Minnesota Twins
80. Adam Wainwright, Atlanta Braves
81. Matt Peterson, New York Mets
82. Jorge De La Rosa, Boston Red Sox
83. Justin Echols, Texas Rangers
84. Kyle Evans, Cleveland Indians
85. Zach Duke, Pittsburgh Pirates
86. Renyel Pinto, Chicago Cubs
87. Josh Hancock, Philadlephia Phillies
88. Joel Zumaya, Detroit Tigers
89. Rodrigo Rosario, Houston Astros
90. Scott Olsen, Florida Marlins
91. Felix Diaz, Chicago White Sox
92. Jon Rauch, Chicago White Sox
93. Bob Keppel, New York Mets
94. Jesse Harper, Toronto Blue Jays
95. Cory Morris, Baltimore Orioles
96. Josh Stevens, Boston Red Sox
97. Bud Smith, Philadelphia Phillies
98. Matt Henrie, Arizona Diamondbacks
99. Clint Nageotte, Seattle Mariners
100. Sandy Nin, Toronto Blue Jays :  Traded to Colorado in the Justin Speier trade.

The above list also appeared, with remarks also exactly as shown, in the Diamond Library book "Future Stars: The Rookies of 2004-2005" which was published in the winter after the 2003 season.