Our annual top prospect list has become not only a tradition but one of the most contentious works we publish each year, even more so than our regular player projections.  This year, I'm not going to re-explain the details of how it works or even attempt to "defend" certain picks as the methods haven't changed much since last year and most readers know what to expect from us by now.  That is, minor league translated statistics, the kind we publish throughout the season for a portion of our subscribers, serve as one significant key piece of the overall puzzle of what is the projected long-term future of a player.  The age of a player and how he is developing along our expected age curves are also a key part of the analysis.

Basically, the prospect list attempts to rank, in order, the players who will have the most productive and longest big league careers.  So, the projected prime of a player is not necessarily paramount as there are players who can and will have shorter careers but who aren't projected to stick around long enough to be worthy of top prospect status compared to others who, while possibly not peaking as high, are projected to have ten or even fifteen year careers in the majors.  Also, the list does not necessarily represent near-term future value and many of these prospects are projected to remain in the minors for the next several years, at least.

Selected comments from our most recent BNRA e-book have been borrowed and there is no information here that anyone who already has our latest BNRA will not already have.  As I say every year, a top prospect is not one simply because everyone says he is and while I am prepared for the onslaught of feedback that will come our way along with publishing this list, as with all the other lists we've published you could categorize it as a "best guess" of a player's future.  So much has to go right for players to evolve as projected and the rankings are dynamic throughout a season.

To set them properly in context, readers are encouraged to check out our recent four-part retrospective on last year's top prospect list, which can be found among other essays at the blog index page at our site, published from January 17-21.

One last note is that this year represents the first in which this list is being made available only to subscribers of our free mailing list.  We ask readers to respect our policy on this and not re-publish it any form, including requesting that readers do not post the list in online discussion forums without asking our permission.  Because of a couple of online misuses of our lists last year, we'd like to keep track of who's actually reading the list and our mailing list and/or a confirmed email address are a good way to do this.  Also, we believe that by sending out the list by email, it "time stamps" it for future reference and so we encourage users to keep a copy to revisit a few years down the road.

To qualify for this list, a player must be a rookie under the technical playing time definition, as opposed to days on a major league roster, meaning 130 at bats and 50 innings are the cutoff point.  Delmon Young, for example, barely qualifies under the playing time rules as he has 126 at bats in the majors.

We sincerely hope you get benefit from this year's selections and manage to find at least a few names you hadn't thought about before. - DL

TOP 100 LONG-TERM PROSPECTS, PRE-2007

Organization Listed is That Which the Player Last Played With in 2006

1. Bruce, Jay (CIN) - 220.02 - OF: The top ranked prospect in this edition, Bruce was given almost $2 million by the Reds after he was their first round pick (12th overall) in 2005. While he is neither the top ranked power prospect nor will he hit over .300 every year, he projects to have an outstanding and extremely long and productive career. In terms of production (as opposed to style), he's sort of a David Wright type player, though much further from his prime than most prospects in this edition. He won't even turn twenty until April and he's already holding his own at Single-A. Remember his name.

2. Hughes, Philip (NYY) - 199.94 - P: Hughes will be near or at the top of everyone's prospect lists this winter. He's probably ready right now to pitch in the majors and it's unclear whether he'll get that chance. He would be more valuable if he stays as a starter because he's going to post superb strikeout numbers, already has the control he needs to succeed and will rarely allow a home run. The Yankees may be patient with him, more than some want them to be, so be warned that he may not contribute a full season's worth of innings until two years down the line.

3. Butler, Billy (KC) - 175.24 - OF: He's been hovering near the top of our lists for a while now and he's now officially an outfielder rather than a third baseman. The Royals' first round pick in 2004, he hasn't even developed his full power yet and his contact rate improved significantly in 2006, even as he spent his first full year at the more competitive Double-A ranks. He probably needs a full year at Triple-A and his projected prime is still quite far into the future.

4. Maybin, Cameron (DET) - 171.52 - OF: The Tigers' first round pick in 2005, Maybin's minor league numbers don't reveal his true potential as he's going to develop much better power and his speed should stay intact for quite a while. His walk rate, while seemingly low at first glance, is actually well above average for his age. He's a long way from the majors but is going to develop into one of the better outfielders in the game.

5. Rasmus, Colby (STL) - 168.58 - OF: The Cardinals took him late in the first round of the 2005 draft and he hasn't disappointed so far. His power potential is good and he's got above average speed and stealing instincts. The batting average probably won't survive by the time he makes it to the majors but he's going to be an annual 20/20 candidate by the time he hits his prime.

6. Kaaihue, Kala (ATL) - 164.73 - 1B: If I were to ask readers what the odds are of two players, both being first basemen, both named Kala Kaaihue and Kila Kaaihue were, they'd probably say they were slim. Then, what if I expanded that to tell you that one of these two would be on our top prospect list in 2006 and the other would make our pre-2007 list? Moreover, what if I asked you the odds of the two having the same birthday, though one year apart? Well, that's exactly what's happened here.

Indeed there are two players named Kaaihue and this one joins our top prospect list but is NOT the same player who made our top prospect a year ago. This one is the Braves' first base prospect and should not be confused with the Royals' prospect of almost exactly the same name who now falls significantly in our rankings.

This Kaaihue was originally drafted by Boston late in the 2003 draft only to end up as a free agent after he had to have elbow surgery. He also ended up missing the latter part of 2006 with an injured wrist but he sets off all the flags in our age model that say he's worthy of being ranked extremely high. He's got superb power, already developed, and a batting eye quite rare for players so young. I don't expect him to end up as a big time hitter for average but his future projects him among the better power hitters in the game and with his walk ability, he should be able to have a long career in the majors. He's still a very much unfinished product, though.

7. Tabata, Jose (NYY) - 163.88 - OF: We ranked Tabata as the top prospect in our mid-2006 BNRA and he remains in the top ten here. Tabata earns his ranking mostly by being so far ahead of his age curve expectations and he projects as a well-balanced future big leaguer who will annually challenge the 30 steal mark, contribute 15-20 home run power and hit for a good average. Of course, he's many years from being that type of player but we need to flag him now.

8. Carp, Mike (NYM) - 157.85 - 1B: Already blessed with good power, he's going to be a 30-35 home run player by the time he's in his prime. He strikes out a bit too often and doesn't project as much of a future hitter to the gaps, meaning his double totals probably won't be interesting. Still, the future power potential can't be ignored and he remains one of the better first base prospects around.

9. Braun, Ryan (MIL) - 149.91 - 3B: Milwaukee's first pick in the 2005 draft, Braun got more than $2 million loaded into his contract with Milwaukee so they're anxious to see him. The top-ranked third baseman in this edition, he projects as a player who will eventually hit for good power, steal some bases and not humiliate himself batting average wise. Working against him is that he could take more walks. Despite spending all of 2006 at Single-A, he's actually closer to the majors than many other players with the same type of resume.

10. Upton, Justin (ARI) - 147.88 - OF: Upton got a fortune (rumored to be a contract worth more than $6 million in total) to sign with Arizona after being their first pick in 2005 and while some called 2006 disappointing, our model said that he's still on track to be a top player. His batting average potential is a minor concern but he'll make up for it with walks, power and speed and he deserves to remain near or at the top of most prospect lists, even though others will likely drop him some.

11. Denker, Travis (LAD) - 145.77 - 2B: Denker remains among our top prospects even as miserable a season as he had in 2006. He wasn't ready for the more competitive Single-A and never should have been advanced there so soon, even as good as he looked in 2005. The Dodgers also moved him to third base (though he still played more games at second base than third in 2006), which they sort of had to do because of questionable defense at second, but it clearly distracted him. Denker will still only be twenty-one on Opening Day and what he's done at the lower Single-A levels hasn't been outweighed by his struggles at the higher levels. Even when he was hitting only .220 in 54 games for Vero Beach, he still kept his contact rate above 80% and his two seasons with Columbus are flagging him as a player that's absolutely going to have a strong career with good power, excellent walk ability and a middle of the road average. Of course, all of this won't happen for another five years and the Dodgers need to give him a full season at the competitive Single-A level before giving up on him.

12. Adenhart, Nicholas (LAA) - 141.14 - P: Where Philip Hughes will be an obvious #1 pitcher in our rankings, Adenhart will likely fall into the surprise slot of being the second-ranked pitcher. Though he was selected in only the 14th round of the 2004 draft, it was because of injury that he fell so far and before that, most were expecting him to be a first round pick. He still needs about three or four years in the minors.

13. Wood, Brandon (LAA) - 140.83 - SS: Wood's much closer to the majors than most of the other top prospects as he's had no trouble with Double-A pitching and his power is already ready for the majors. He would benefit by walking more often and he strikes out so often that he'll have to keep hitting for power to keep a big league job, which he should be able to do. He's the highest-ranked shortstop in this edition.

14. Young, Delmon (TB) - 133.98 - OF: Certainly this is the last edition in which Young will be below the cutoff at bats requirement for rookies. It's also the lowest we've ranked him in a while, though being in the top fifteen prospects is nothing to sneeze at. He falls a little from his previous lofty rankings because he actually had a bit of trouble at Triple-A, both off the field when he got himself suspended for throwing a bat at an umpire, and on the field too. Regardless, he remains among the top prospects in the game and he'll now get an immediate chance to prove himself in the majors.

15. Lis, Erik (MIN) - 131.80 - 1B: There are only two things holding Lis from having cracked our top ten. First, he's a bit older than most of the high-ranked prospects, to be already twenty-three years old by Opening Day 2007. Second, he broke his hamate bone just before the end of the season and we need to see that he's back to full strength. In any case, he projects as a future mid-level power hitter (think 20-25 home runs) with decent walk ability and a good batting average.

16. Campbell, Eric (ATL) - 130.66 - 3B: Drafted by the Braves in the 2nd round of the 2004 draft, Campbell has surprising power and some speed as a bonus. Playing for Single-A Rome leaves him a long way from the majors and he's still five years from becoming a .260s type hitter with close to 30 home run power. Though he'll probably steal a few bases in the majors, he doesn't have the kind of speed that's going to last deep into his career.

17. Brignac, Reid (TB) - 128.47 - SS: Picked early in the second round of the 2004 draft, Brignac projects as that rarest of power hitters who can play shortstop. While he won't walk a lot and his speed will not usually threaten even the 10 stolen base mark, he's close to the majors. He's going to be a very good player and as with other shortstops in the Devil Rays' chain, needs to cut down on his error totals to remain at that position for the long haul.

18. Pedroza, Sergio (TB) - 127.23 - OF: He was part of the trade that sent Julio Lugo to the Dodgers and this is one that may come back to haunt Los Angeles. Pedroza, a former third round pick, quietly put up an outstanding power season and more importantly, picked up more than 100 walks in 2006. The one and only factor holding him back is that his contact rate is questionable and thus he may not be able to hit for the necessary average to stick in the majors. His walks may make up for it and he definitely projects as a good power hitter but the contact rate is the single skill he needs to improve on to graduate to the majors.

19. Kouzmanoff, Kevin (CLE - since traded to SD)- 126.30 - 3B: One of the oldest prospects who make our highest rankings, Kouzmanoff will get a chance to be the regular third baseman for San Diego this year. He's actually only a year or two away from being the type of hitter who could challenge the .300 mark in the majors and he's already got good power and gap ability. He could walk a bit more but even as late as he's arriving, still has a good career ahead of him.

20. Gallardo, Yovani (MIL) - 126.27 - P: He's rightfully going to be near the top of most prospect lists leading into 2007, though it's 50/50 whether he'll be rushed to the majors in the next couple of years. All he's done since the start of 2005 is dominate minor league hitters and he could easily end up as a big time strikeout starter in the majors or even a closer, if that's what someone wanted to try. In fact, he's the kind of pitcher who'd probably be more dominant in a relief role and the Brewers got a steal when they took him in the second round of the 2004 draft. In hindsight, he's pitched like an early first rounder all the way.

The best of the rest...

21. Natale, Jeff (BOS) - 117.61 - 2B
22. Lind, Adam (TOR) - 115.87 - OF
23. Gonzalez, Carlos (ARI) - 114.98 - OF
24. LaRoche, Andy (LAD) - 114.79 - 3B
25. Rodriguez, Sean (LAA) - 114.69 - SS
26. Haeger, Charles (CHW) - 110.96 - P
27. Saltalamacchia, Jarrod (ATL) - 107.44 - C
28. Gamel, Matthew (MIL) - 106.44 - 3B
29. Egbert, John (CHW) - 106.15 - P
30. Blanks, Kyle (SD) - 106.08 - 1B
31. Barton, Daric (OAK) - 105.45 - 1B
32. Winfree, David (MIN) - 105.26 - 3B
33. Votto, Joey (CIN) - 102.37 - 1B
34. Garcia, Jaime (STL) - 101.38 - P
35. McCutchen, Andrew (PIT) - 101.08 - OF
36. Gordon, Alex (KC) - 99.08 - 3B: Gordon will likely be this year's player who is perceived as being snubbed because we've ranked him at "only" #36 among several thousand prospects. As good as he was at Double-A Wichita, he's a little older than you might expect (already turning twenty-three in February). Still, he projects as a good power hitter with some speed but the average simply doesn't translate to the majors, which is why he's a little lower here than most other sources will list him. He's very close to a promotion, obviously, though the Royals say they don't want to rush him. Temper your expectations just slightly.
37. Pence, Hunter (HOU) - 97.61 - OF
38. Cunningham, Aaron (CHW) - 96.71 - OF
39. Salome, Angel - 96.30 (MIL) - C
40. Sosa, Oswaldo (MIN) - 94.82 - P
41. Hirsh, Jason (HOU) - 94.49 - P
42. Romak, Jamie (ATL) - 93.92 - OF
43. Moore, Scott (CHC) - 93.22 - 3B
44. Ramirez, Maximiliano (CLE) - 91.14 - DH
45. Erbe, Brandon (BAL) - 89.79 - P
46. Patton, Troy (HOU) - 89.78 - P
47. Baisley, Jeffrey (OAK) - 88.46 - 3B
48. Towles, Justin (HOU) - 87.72 - C
49. Mosebach, Robert (LAA) - 87.68 - P
50. Young, Chris (ARI) - 87.04 - OF
51. Jaso, John (TB) - 85.99 - DH
52. Jones, Brandon (ATL) - 85.29 - OF
53. Pie, Felix (CHC) - 85.25 - OF
54. Reimold, Nolan (BAL) - 83.87 - OF
55. Jurrjens, Jair (DET) - 81.46 - P
56. Lillibridge, Brent (PIT) - 78.39 - SS
57. Anderson, Bryan (STL) - 78.26 - C
58. Slowey, Kevin (MIN) - 78.24 - P
59. Jones, Adam (SEA) - 77.89 - OF
60. Maloney, Matthew (PHI) - 77.70 - P
61. Mayberry, John (TEX) - 77.21 - OF
62. Dukes, Elijah (TB) - 76.85 - OF
63. Laffey, Aaron (CLE) - 76.50 - P
64. Barton, Brian (CLE) - 76.49 - OF
65. Windsor, Jason (OAK) - 76.21 - P
66. Fairchild, Thomas (HOU) - 76.10 - P
67. Fermaint, Charlie (MIL) - 74.89 - OF
68. Bailey, David "Homer" (CIN) - 74.49 - P
69. Peterson, Brock (MIN) - 74.16 - 1B
70. Reynolds, Mark (ARI) - 74.13 - SS
71. Barthmaier, Jimmy (HOU) - 74.05 - P
72. Garner, Cole (COL) - 72.55 - OF
73. Fox, Jacob (CHC) - 72.02 - C
74. Lisson, Mario (KC) - 71.89 - 3B
75. Inman, William (MIL) - 70.64 - P
76. Martinez-Esteve, Eddy (SF) - 70.53 - OF
77. Dunlap, Cory (LAD) - 70.04 - 1B
78. Dewitt, Blake (LAD) - 70.03 - 2B
79. Restko, J.T. (FLO) - 69.07 - OF
80. Headley, Chase (SD) - 68.82 - 3B
81. Drennen, John (CLE) - 68.45 - OF
82. Miller, Adam (CLE) - 68.31 - P
83. Iannetta, Christopher (COL) - 67.94 - C
84. Pinto, Renyel (FLO) - 67.31 - P
85. Brito, Javier (ARI) - 67.26 - 1B/DH
86. Psomas, Grant (FLO) - 67.26 - 3B
87. Craig, Casey (SEA) - 66.12 - OF
88. Ekstrom, Michael (SD) - 65.54 - P
89. Ward, Zachary (MIN) - 64.69 - P
90. Slayden, Jeremy (PHI) - 64.32 - OF
91. Breen, Patrick (TB) - 64.24 - OF
92. Hatch, Anthony (TOR) - 64.20 - 3B
93. Nicolas, Cesar (ARI) - 63.80 - 1B
94. Cain, Lorenzo (MIL) - 63.51 - OF
95. Macdonald, Michael (TOR) - 63.28 - P
96. Granadillo, Tony (BOS) - 63.22 - 3B
97. Badenhop, Burke (DET) - 63.03 - P
98. Corsaletti, Jeffrey (BOS) - 62.77 - OF
99. Hernandez, Gabriel (FLO) - 62.77 - P
100. Tintor, Eli (MIN) - 61.32 - OF