Actual player comments that were published here before the 2009 season

HITTERS (in alphabetical order)

Bobby Abreu - Feb 22/09 - ...His skills are clearly not what they used to be but he still makes good contact and has some speed left.  We think he overachieved a little in home runs and 2007 is a much more accurate representation of his real power but beyond that, there's no reason to believe he can't continue to hit in the .280s with some power and speed...

Garrett Anderson - Feb 8/09 - He'll turn thirty-seven this season and has only played 145 games once in the past five years, which was in 2008.  His performance numbers have come down just a bit as his power has declined and we doubt he can keep his batting average up as high as it's been the past two years if that power drop is for real.  This is combined with consideration that he likely overachieved in hitting singles in 2008 and his doubles skill has clearly dropped compared to where it was even two years ago.

Lance Berkman - Feb 22/09 - He now moves into that age group (thirty-three) where we would be unlikely to continue forecasting 150+ game seasons but beyond that, we do think he can continue to hit for good power and still steal a few bases.  He likely overachieved just a little in the doubles column considering what he did before 2008...

Gregor Blanco - Feb 22/09 - His performance last year looks about right to us and he looked headed for another season in the lineup.  He's a bit old to have just made his debut, now twenty-five years of age.  Though he will give you a few steals, it's worth noting that his minor league career is filled with plenty of steals to go hand in hand with plenty of times caught stealing too, a trend that usually stalls a hitter from getting green lights in the majors in the long run.  For example, in 2007 at Triple-A Richmond, he stole 23 bases and was caught 18 times.  Be warned that he may not be a base stealer in the majors even two or three years from now.

Russell Branyan - Mar 1/09 - Always a hugely powerful player, his problem has always been that he is unlikely to hit for average.  Even if that remains the case, he headed into spring training as the front-runner to be the first baseman.  If he got even 300+ at bats, he could put up some big home run numbers, as long as his average doesn't eventually cost him his job.

Ryan Braun - Jan 25/09 - We're projecting more of the same from Braun with the exception of the RBI column, which should go up if he continues the excellent power performance he's already proven he's capable of in his short career.   His speed may go unnoticed but 10-15 steals from a 35+ home run player are nothing to sneeze at.

Billy Butler - Feb 8/09 - Not only is he still improving but he heads into a season for the first time with a virtually guaranteed regular spot in the starting lineup. He may not be developing at the speed we would like but it's easy to forget that he'll only turn twenty-three in April and has plenty of time to continue to hone his craft. Our forecast is that he bounces back somewhat to the arguably superior skills he showed in 2007 and if you project that over a full season's worth of at-bats, as we have, he is about to firmly establish himself as a long-term mainstay of this lineup.

Miguel Cabrera - Feb 8/09 - Cabrera's track record is good enough that even with him having led the American League in home runs last year with 37, we can actually say that he had an off year. It's obvious looking at what he did from 2004 to 2007 that he can accumulate much better single totals than we saw in 2008. His home run and doubles skill of a year ago are representative of his real ability and his contact rate is fairly well-established. Putting all that together means that he should see a tremendous rise in batting average, even above the .292 of last year.  He turns just twenty-six years old in April and has not even reached his prime despite now more than 3,300 at bats in the major leagues. He can do even better than we've seen.

Robinson Cano - Jan 25/09 - Cano may have been too good for his own good when he first broke through, hitting .342 in his second season over 482 at bats and then reaching the 97 RBI mark in year three.  To be fair to him and what should be expected, last year's .271 average really doesn't reflect his talent...

Luis Castillo - Feb 22/09 - Last year was a negative fluke and there's just too much evidence to suggest that he's a better player than what we saw, this as he opens the season thirty-three years of age.  His recent track record does suggest that he shouldn't be able to keep running this much and we expect that even if he gets back to more typical playing time territory, he won't be able to steal as many bases, per plate appearance, as he did last year.

Jeff Clement - Mar 1/09 - He's going to get his shot now and there are a lot of factors that go into our forecast (at the time this comment was published, we were forecasting Clement to fail at landing a regular job and projected him to get only 80 at bats after a 224 at bat season in 2008... he got 0).  First, we actually think he hit right about at real skill level last year and wasn't particularly unlucky.  Sure, he had a great 172 at bats at Triple-A Tacoma but it's the same level and team for which in 2007, he had more than 450 at bats and hit only .275, and that's not even adjusting for the level of competition.  Go back further to 2006, also at Triple-A, and he hit just .257 in 245 at bats.  Now, mix into all of this that he's actually already twenty-five years old and you can see our concerns.  This is the decisive season for his career.

Carl Crawford - Feb 7/09 - ... his power is actually better than the home run totals revealed last year, enough so that we're actually incorporating some consideration of the power he displayed in his results from 2005 to 2006. If his power bounces back even slightly, if his current contact and singles rate holds up, and if he gets back to hitting doubles which will require him to have a healthy hamstring, he should bounce back...

Nelson Cruz - From Jan 14/09 essay at site: "Last year, we highlighted both Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley in this space and this year, another Texas outfielder makes the cut. Not only does Cruz head into 2009 with an apparent lock on a starting spot in the outfield but it appears that he'll be batting cleanup. Whether he'll sneak through drafts is unclear because he was so good in limited playing time with Texas that he'll go at least somewhat noticed (.330, 7 home runs, 26 RBI and 3 SB in just 115 at bats).

While we don't believe Cruz will maintain the .300+ average he showed last year - in addition to his .330 mark with Texas, he batted .342 at Triple-A Oklahoma - he does look like he'll at least hold his own in the .270s range, much improved over the .251 mark he's showed in the majors in more than 500 career at bats. He's already twenty-eight but a look at those career numbers, beyond the batting average, shows 557 career at bats, 22 home runs, 70 runs scored, 82 RBI and 6 stolen bases. His speed has improved too, demonstrated by 24 steals at Triple-A last year.  At least 10-15 of those should carry over to the majors, this while his power numbers have stayed intact in line with what he's already shown in the majors earlier."

Jack Cust - Feb 22/09 - We had warned last year in this space about the likely chance of Cust's batting average dropping but it still goes with good power and an ability to take walks, which keeps him in the lineup somewhat frequently.  Even with the walks, we're not sure how much longer he'll keep getting chances if he continues to hit at his career .239 clip (almost exactly what we were forecasting in our earliest sets) and we actually believe his power should begin to decline soon too.  Even considering the walks, it's his home run skill that's keeping him in the majors.

Johnny Damon - Feb 22/09 - At thirty-five years of age now and not having played 150 games in a season since 2004, we can't project as much playing time as we'd like for Damon, this as his career continues to decline.  He likely overachieved last year in singles (a rate of 25% singles per ball in play compared to 23% and 21% in 2007 and 2006 respectively) and his doubles, triples and home run rates from 2008 look about right to us.  His speed should continue to decline as he approaches forty but he still does contribute something there.

Mark DeRosa - Feb 22/09 - ...his average is about to come way down because his singles rate has been dropping and it doesn't appear to be the result of bad luck as much as a slight but still measurable decline in skills, this as he opens the season thirty-four years of age.

Stephen Drew - Jan 25/09 - Drew completely made people forget about his dismal 2007 season, bouncing back with an average approaching .300 and exceeding 20 home runs for the first time.  He's a little older than you might expect for someone entering his third full season in the majors (he'll have turned twenty-six before Opening Day) and so we'd be surprised if there's much more improvement left in the power column and it's unlikely he repeats the 9 steals / 0 caught stealing performance of two years ago again.  We're forecasting a decline in batting average compared to last year partially because we don't see the doubles/home run performance as sustainable given the track record that preceded it...

Adam Dunn - Feb 22/09 - It was quite surprising to see him go unwanted on the free agent market for so long, especially considering that from a true run-manufacturing perspective, he likely makes up for his batting average deficiency with his ability to take walks.  From a forecasting point of view, he had a lot of bad luck last year with singles falling in, seeing only 17% of his balls in play go for singles (compared to 19% a year earlier, the rate we're forecasting to return).  His power should just dip slightly as he continues to age but to his credit, he's hit exactly 40 home runs for four straight years...

Jermaine Dye - Feb 8/09 - As he ages, he becomes a bigger injury risk but his power is still good anyway, enough to get our attention.  His contact rate last year was a bit high and inconsistent with the previous two years so we expect that to come back down, which will drag down his average too.  At thirty-five years of age, we wouldn't be surprised to see his doubles ability start to drop a bit as well.

Jacoby Ellsbury - Feb 8/09 - Ellsbury lived up to the great expectations that many fantasy owners had for him, at least in the stolen base department where he led the league with 50. He is actually capable of hitting for a better average than the .280 we saw last year. In the minor leagues, he hit .298 in 2007 in 363 at-bats for Triple-A Pawtucket and had hit .308 a year earlier at Double-A in almost 200 at-bats. Ellsbury doesn't have much power, and isn't likely to develop much either, but his great speed and good prospects to hit for batting average will still make him an interesting target, particularly because he approached 100 runs scored last year and is likely to do the same in 2009...

Yunel Escobar - Feb 8/09 - We're forecasting essentially the same player we saw in 2008, this as Escobar starts the season twenty-six years of age, something that's easy to overlook when one realizes he's only appeared in the majors for two seasons. Still, because of our analysis of his skills, he is that rarest of player for whom we will project continued success in hitting singles even with only a limited track record.

Prince Fielder - Feb 8/09 - You know you must be a good player when you hit 34 home runs and drive in 102 runs and your biggest fans consider you a disappointment.  Fielder arguably fell into that disappointment category last year only because he'd been so good a year earlier, hitting 50 home runs, but he essentially established a ceiling that few players should be expected to repeat. Having said all that, he actually is more powerful than last year's home run total reveal and we're projecting a return to more typical power numbers. We do believe that his contact rate is about as we saw it was last year, as are the singles and doubles, but if we're right about the projected return of even bigger power numbers, mixed with his newfound singles rate, he should actually hit for the best average of his young career. As good as he's been so far, it's easy to forget that he'll turn just twenty-five in May.

Josh Fields - Mar 1/09 - With the Joe Crede era ending in Chicago, Fields headed into spring training as the leader to take over at third base.  He's had some knee problems and, of course, there's the issue of whether he can keep his batting average up enough to hang on to the job, the latter problem being the one that caused us great hesitation in forecasting as many games as we did.  Remember, Fields hit only .246 at Triple-A in 2008 in almost 300 at bats and it's going to be a factor.  If he were to go out and hit .200 in March or April for that matter, the White Sox would be auditioning other candidates before long.

Chone Figgins - Feb 8/09 - While we expect his speed is now slightly declining, he's projected to play enough this year that it will essentially offset the decline with about the same stolen base production, just over a greater number of at bats.  He can do better in doubles but as his speed does drop, he'll see a corresponding drop in singles which should affect his batting average two or three years down the road.  For now, we're forecasting that he's going to remain about the same player for another year or two.

Mike Fontenot - Mar 1/09 - He went into spring training a strong candidate to end up with a semi-regular job.  His numbers last year were probably somewhat of a fluke as his history implies lower ability and he's actually already going to turn twenty-nine this season...

Ben Francisco - Feb 8/09 - As we were making our earliest forecasts, he headed into 2009 with a full-time and fairly secure job. Even with only 509 career big-league at-bats to his credit, he's actually a lot older than many would guess, opening the 2009 season twenty-seven years of age. Our reading of his minor league career implies just slightly lower doubles and home run skill than we saw last year but, to his credit, a bit more speed as well. So, our forecast is built along those lines and he should be able to hang on to a regular job at this stage.

Jeff Francoeur - Mar 1/09 - It looks like he's headed for another chance but he's a high risk pick, especially considering that he was so bad at one point that the Braves sent him to the minor leagues, demonstrating that his job security is anything but absolute.  We expect he's a better player than we saw last year because his power is superior to what you would conclude if you looked at his home run rate.  Still, he's not the player he was in 2006-2007.

Jody Gerut - Feb 22/09 - It was quite a comeback for Gerut but before we book him a spot in Cooperstown, remember that he's already thirty-one years old, is a career .271 hitter in the majors, hit .252 in his previous season with more than 300 at bats and his track record implies that the sort of power we saw last year is unsustainable in the long run.  Still, he did way better than we forecasted last year so perhaps he'll surprise us again.  We're not betting on it.

Jason Giambi - ...Last year's 145 games played were the most since 2003 and we'd be surprised if he approaches that number again, particularly with a team that has some other candidates it wants to consider for the long run at first base and DH.

Brian Giles - Feb 22/09 - Don't be remotely fooled by last year's average, not only because he overachieved in singles per ball in play (23% rate last year compared to 21% and 20% the previous two years) but because his doubles skill is definitely not as good as it looked last year, this considering a lengthy career that proves otherwise... he remains an extremely high injury risk, especially as he now approaches forty.

Alex Gordon - Feb 8/09 - We find it interesting when readers tell us that they view Gordon as a disappointment and ask us to explain why he fell short of expectations so far.  We have to wonder whose expectations they are talking about, particularly since Gordon has actually performed right around his real projected ability. His 2006 Double-A season was so outstanding that we imagine a lot of readers expected it to instantly translate fully to the major leagues, something which is rarely possible especially when a player bypasses Triple-A altogether. Gordon is also a little older than some who have been ranked as top prospects, turning twenty-five in February. That means he should actually be much closer to his prime than some other highly regarded prospects and his improvement at this stage will not be as sharp as, say, a player who broke through to the majors at twenty-one or twenty-two. We believe Gordon's power is stabilizing somewhat, that his contact rate is now well-established and that he needs to continue getting playing time if he's to live up to any semblance of the previous lofty expectations some had for him.

Ken Griffey Jr. - Mar 1/09 - Griffey returned "home" to Seattle just as spring training was getting underway and the unfortunate thing for him is that his skills now are declining and it's not just a matter of staying healthy.  Where once all he needed to do was stay in the lineup, his power fell off significantly in 2008 and it wasn't just a negative fluke.  His stroke really has suffered, this as he starts the season thirty-nine years old.  Moreover, he moves to a park that isn't exactly the friendliest for hitters and of course, there still is that injury risk with him, as always.

Vladimir Guerrero - Feb 8/09 - ... We are picking up hints of the slightest decline in power and his speed has dropped considerably since a few years ago, now essentially making any potential stolen bases only a slight issue in his value.  He should also begin to see an increase in injury risk now too, this as he's already fallen short of 145 games in three of the past six years.

Franklin Gutierrez - Feb 22/09 - His singles rate per ball in play last year was extremely unlucky and well below the 23% and 25% marks he had posted in 2007 and 2006 respectively.  Our forecast is in line with a bounce-back to levels right between those two seasons, which will boost his batting average back up to former levels.  As we were making our first forecasts, he looked headed for a full-time job here.

Cristian Guzman - Feb 8/09 - There just isn't enough evidence to prove that the Guzman of 2007 to 2008 is a completely different player than the more mediocre player we saw from 1999 to 2005. We do believe that his contact rate is for real and that's represented in our current forecast. However, the heavy weight of everything that preceded 2008 leads us to believe that he can't continue getting as many hits per ball in play as we saw last year as well as in limited playing time in 2007. In our earliest forecasts, we were still forecasting him to perform 20 points above his career .270 batting average, but a massive projected drop in the singles column, and reversion to sorts of his more typical proven performance for the bulk of his career, leads us to a more modest batting average forecast than last year might lead you to. Having missed all of the 2006 season, and turning thirty-one years of age before Opening Day, we don't believe that he suddenly became Wade Boggs while he sat out a year.

Brad Hawpe - Feb 8/09 - Last year's primary numbers look just about right to us as long as he continues to play in the same enviornment and the only important note here is that he really shouldn't be grouped into the "young players" category on this team.  Hawpe, who has only once cleared the 500 at bat barrier, is actually already turning thirty this season.  That means the chances are good that he's not going to get a whole let better than we've already seen.

Ryan Howard - Feb 8/09 - Even with all of his power numbers, there were some who were understandably frustrated by Howard, particularly because he had such trouble getting his batting average up to respectable territory.  He's capable of doing so much more and he experienced more than his share of bad luck the past couple of years, watching his singles rate per ball in play drop from 25% in 2006 to 21% in 2007 to just 18% last year.  Look for that to bounce back somewhat, he can hit more doubles than he did last year, as proven the year before, and he should continue hitting home runs at about the same pace as we saw in 2008.  All of that should combine to bring his batting average back up.

Orlando Hudson - Feb 8/09 - Into February, he still hadn't signed with a new team and that he's suffered injury-shortened seasons the past couple of years may have made some teams more wary.  We expect his contact rate and singles rate to begin a slight decline now, this as he opens the season thirty-one years of age.  Still, even with a slight drop in batting average, he should continue to produce about as he has over the past couple of seasons.

Aubrey Huff - Feb 8/09 - It's extremely unlikely that last year's doubles skill represents his real ability given how he performed in that category for his entire career prior to that in almost 4,000 bats. So, if his doubles total drops back to much more typical territory, if his contact and singles rate hold steady along with about the power he showed last year, his average should drop considerably.

Torii Hunter - Feb 8/09 - Given his age and track record, it becomes difficult for us to project more than 140 games played...

Raul Ibanez - Feb 8/09 - ...Our only concern here is that at his age (he turns thirty-seven this year), we can't possibly forecast anywhere close to another 162 game season and so our playing time expectations are much more modest than you might expect if you were only to look at his past four seasons.

Travis Ishikawa - Mar 1/09 - His forecast is almost entirely based on our reading of his lengthy minor league career and how it might translate to the majors.  Before 2008, he actually wasn't really approaching those .300-like minor league numbers, hitting only .268 at just High-A in 198 at bats in 2007...

Maicer Izturis - Feb 22/09 - He still runs okay, makes good contact and has a pretty consistent rate of singles, doubles, triples and home runs per ball in play over the past few years, meaning we're not out on a limb much when it comes to those categories.  The risk here is in the forecasted playing time as in our first projections, we were projecting Izturis to get a career-high in playing time.

Adam Jones - From Jan 14/09 essay at site: "We're highlighting Jones because our age model combined with an analysis of his minor league history implies that he's about to experience a sudden big league power-surge, this as he comes off a season that saw him finish with just 9 home runs in 477 at bats. Not only are we expecting him to maintain his good 10-15 stolen base ability but we're looking for Jones' power to move into 20+ home run territory, flashes of which he showed when he was on the way up through Seattle's farm system, most recently when he hit 25 home runs in 101 games for Triple-A Tacoma in 2007. In fact, Jones always was a power threat in the minors and had not hit fewer than 15 home runs in a minor league season since 2004, when he was just eighteen years old. Look for a breakout performance here."

Chipper Jones - Feb 22/09 - Always an injury risk, he's still valuable even when he doesn't stay healthy and we expect that will continue to be the case.  The one caution we have to share is that we do expect his power is starting to decline and that this drop will now reflect itself in the home run column.  Moreover, he singled at an extraordinarily high rate last year, 30% of the time he put a ball in play compared to 22% each of the previous two years.  Look for that to drop back to more usual territory and it will bring his batting average down quite a bit...

Jason Kendall - Mar 1/09 - There's almost no way he's going to play as much as he did last year, not only because of injury risk but because Brewers management itself said that they planned to give him more rest, rightfully so.  He still makes good contact but it has not translated to batting average in the past couple of years, nor do we expect it to do so again.  His power is almost non-existent and he has only a little bit of his speed left.  He's declined considerably since 2006 and now, as his playing time drops to more typical mid-thirties regular catcher levels, so will his projected value.

Ian Kinsler - Jan 25/09 - Kinsler was well on his way to a career-year (arguably he had a career-year even with the missed time) before a sports hernia ended his season early.  Injuries have shortened all three of his big league seasons but in our earliest sets, we were foreacsting that he'd finally eclipse the 140 game mark and if he does that, he'll have a true breakthrough year into the fantasy baseball elite.  Just looking at his career numbers to date, he's already proven that he can hit for a good average, steal plenty of bases while rarely getting caught and that leads to plenty of runs scored and RBI.  He's already had a 20-20 season once in his career and we'll be surprised if he doesn't have his best year in 2009.  Turning twenty-seven this season, he should now be in his prime and just needs to stay healthy.  Most fantasy types would be glad if he even repeated either of his past two injury-shortened campaigns.

Paul Konerko - Feb 22/09 - To be fair, he's had some pretty miserable luck the past couple of years on the percentage of balls in play that have fallen for singles and if those numbers bounce back to more likely territory, his average will come back with it...

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Jan 25/09 - Kouzmanoff is fairly well-established now and last year represents about what we should expect over a typical season at this point.  Because he broke through to the majors a little late, it's easy to forget that he's already twenty-seven years old.  His power seems to have peaked now and we're forecasting essentially a repeat season.  If he were in any other environment, we could theoretically forecast much better numbers but as long as his home park is in San Diego, he'll have trouble hitting the 25 home run mark or clearing 90 RBI.

Jason Kubel - Feb 8/09 - Kubel's sort of settled in now as a fairly reliable performer.  The past three years, he's had contact rates of between 80-81%, his singles per ball in play rate has been very consistent between 20-21% all three years and he's homered around 4 or 5% of the time he's put the ball in play every year as well.  He should now start to see just a bit more job security and he looks to us to be right in the middle of his prime.

Adam LaRoche - Feb 8/09 - At twenty-nine years of age now, his power is unlikely to get any better than we saw last year.  So, we're forecasting him to perform at a virtually identical pace to what we saw the past two years and he should have several more such years in him.  His biggest challenge will be that since he's never been a big hitter for average nor a truly massive home run hitter, when the inevitable decline comes a few years down the road, and his average eventually fades into .240 or .250 something territory, his other skills may not be enough to keep him in the majors as deep into his thirties as other players.  For now, though, he's safe.

Andy LaRoche - Feb 22/09 - He struggled miserably after being essentially handed a job finally and his minor league stats promise a far better player than we saw in the majors in 2008.  The problem is that 223 at bats is not exactly a non-sample and so we can't ignore it completely, this even when we consider he was almost always having no trouble hitting .300 in the minors.  For better or worse, he headed into 2009 looking like a sure thing to start at third base on a regular basis.

Carlos Lee - Feb 8/09 - After two straight seasons of more than 160 games, Lee suffered a fractured finger in early August that ended what was shaping up to be one of his best seasons.  We believe he can continue along those lines, having hit for a remarkably consistent rate of contact, singles, doubles and home run ability the past three years.  If he bounces back to stay healthy for most of the year, he'll be an even bigger producer and our only concern is that we're not sure he can sustain the sort of RBI numbers he was showing last year and on a per at bat basis, we expect a return to more familiar territory here

Derrek Lee - Feb 8/09 - In his mid-thirties and given how much time he missed a few years ago, we can't really continue to forecast 150+ games here...

Fred Lewis - Feb 8/09 - Lewis took advantage of an early opening in left field to become a near full-timer for the first time.  The main unfortunate thing for him is that, despite what you may expect given how new he is to the majors, he's actually already twenty-eight years old and thus should be well into his prime.  He runs well enough to continue producing in the stolen base category for another few years but he probably won't be able to maintain the sort of batting average we saw last year, this as he hit singles at a rate of 25% per time he put the ball in play with the Giants last year, this in sharp contrast to the 21% rate he had in 171 at bats with Triple-A Fresno in 2007 or 23% rate he had at Triple-A in 2006 in more than 400 at bats.

Adam Lind - Feb 8/09 - He's still improving...  He has the potential to hit to the gaps more than he has, as reflected in our doubles forecast.

James Loney - Feb 8/09 - We have some concerns about his ability, at least as was revealed in his first true full season in the majors. His contact rate has held steady at 86% each of the last two years but our attention is more in the singles column, where last year he posted a 23% rate of singles per ball in play and an amazingly high 26% total in 2007.  Our forecasting method just can't usually project singles per ball in play rates that high for relatively new players with such a limited track record and Loney falls into that category. That is, a vast majority of players who post such rates in their first few years in the majors tend to revert somewhat to the mean with only the rare exceptions (and such exceptions become pretty self-evident).  If we're right about a potential drop in singles, then his batting average will drop even as we project virtually identical performance in the other hit columns ( i.e. doubles, triples, home runs). To his credit, his newfound occasional speed looks to be for real and so we wouldn't be surprised if he chips in with another handful of steals.

Mike Lowell - Feb 22/09 - His 2008 season got derailed, first by an injured thumb and then constantly by hip problems.  At thirty-five years of age heading into the season, he remains a high injury risk, especailly given his position and age mixed in with consideration of last year's shortened season.  His rate of home runs per ball in play last year was a bit high compared to the previous two years and we doubt he actually got more powerful at his age than he was two years ago.

Ryan Ludwick - Feb 8/09 - He had a truly oustanding year and deserves credit for the breakthrough.  Now, the bad news here is that having managed to play a full season in the majors as a true regular in the lineup for the first time, he's actually already thirty years old and has pretty severe evidence that implies that a repeat is unlikely.  Certainly, his power has improved over earlier in his career and our forecast reflects that.  However, we don't expect that the doubles rate will quite hold up and if the doubles and home runs drop to where we expect it will, his average should fall back down to the more likely .267 territory he showed in 303 at bats a year earlier.  Even if that happens, he's still a quite improved player who has plenty of production left in him and while we're not forecasting a repeat, we're not entirely calling 2008 a fluke either.  There's some value here as long as you don't bank on a replication of last year's performance.

Nick Markakis - Jan 25/09 - We expect his batting average to decline just slightly as we think he's been overachieving in the doubles category but not all the doubles will disappear - Rather, we're forecasting some of them will start turning into home runs as he approaches his prime.  The 18 stolen bases of 2007 will likely end up as a career-high as he not only doesn't seem to have the long-term speed to be a typical 20 SB type but he also started getting in the habit of getting caught last year, which will get him fewer green lights.  We're forecasting another strong year from a now-developed cornerstone of the Orioles' outfield.

Russell Martin - Feb 22/09 - Really the only concern we have is that we find it unlikely he'll continue to play this many games, even as young as he is.  Beyond that, he did get a bit of luck last year on singles falling (a rate of 25% per ball in play compared to 23% and 22% the previous two years) so we wouldn't be surprised to see his average drop a bit, especially since he sort of showed last year that his power is more likely what we saw last year and in 2006 than what it was in 2007.  The speed bonus is nice as long as you recognize that it's unlikely he'll be stealing bases a few years down the line.

Hideki Matsui - Feb 22/09 - Once an apparent lock to play 162 games a season, he's now become a high injury risk player for whom preferential treatment will be given in an effort to keep him healthy for the long run, even at the expense of sitting him now and then. His power is better than last year's home run total reveals but at the same time, his singles skill likely isn't so we're still projecting a drop in batting average.  We think he can stay healthy enough to get in a lot more games as long as you just don't expect anywhere close to the types of seasons he once put up when he first came over from Japan.

Kaz Matsui - Feb 22/09 - Expect both his contact and doubles rate (and thus his batting average) to come back down to more typical territory some but he still runs well, despite his age.  He always seems to get hurt and it usually isn't just one nagging injury but a series of ailments that add up to frustration for his fantasy owners.  Thus, even with a continued spot in the lineup, we just can't go any higher on the projected games played, our earliest projections being for a big league career-best (we were projecting 130 games, he ended up playing a career-best 132).  Since coming over to North America, with five seasons now, he's never played more than 114 games in a season.

Kevin Millar - Feb 22/09 - After going unwanted on the free agent market, he signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays with an eye toward making the big league roster out of spring training.  In such a case, while he would add depth to the Toronto roster, his playing time was far from a sure thing, even though we could see him as the type of veteran player who could get frequent at bats through the DH slot if one of the younger players fail to pan out.  However, our original forecasts had been based on the belief that he would land somewhere with a big league contract and a regular job and that didn't happen and instead, he signed with a team that already has a starting first baseman and several DH candidates.  Ability-wise, he overachieved in home runs last year when one looks closer at 2006-2007 totals.  It's highly unlikely that he's getting stronger in his late thirties.

David Murphy - Feb 8/09 - Our earliest forecasts here were based on the belief that he was going to be a regular in the lineup in left field and the only thing that drew him down just a little bit is that he's a little older than some would guess, this as he opens the season twenty-seven years of age, never having played a true full season in the majors. Still, he brings a bit of speed, some doubles potential and makes enough contact that he shouldn't kill a team batting average even if he continues to have trouble translating balls in play into singles. Be warned that in 2008, he almost never faced a left-handed pitcher, batting just 10 times total for the entire season against southpaws. When we consider that, mixed with his now projected more full-time role, we'd be hard pressed to forecast his average to stay as high as it was last year, an average which came almost entirely against right-handed pitching.

Xavier Nady - Feb 8/09 - We believe that Nady actually just passed his prime and that he will be hard-pressed to repeat the power he has shown the past two years. Of equal concern is that he still has never played 150 games in a season and his career batting average is .280 in now more than 2000 career at bats, much lower than the .305 career-best he showed last year at twenty-nine years of age.  We expect that when his career is over, 2008 could very well go down as his best year and prospects for a repeat are limited here.

Magglio Ordonez - Feb 8/09 - The biggest challenge in making this forecast is projecting the right number of games and we do expect that at his age, he must be up there in the injury risk slot, this as he opens the season thirty-five years of age...

Lyle Overbay - Feb 8/09 - Now a career .280 hitter in almost 3,000 big league at bats, he's on the wrong side of the age curve now and isn't the player he was three years ago.  His contact ability has dropped at least several percentage points and his power and doubles skill is on a downhill slope as well.  It wouldn't surprise us if he starts sitting now and then against more lefties as he hit just .215 with no home runs and just 6 doubles against left-handed pitching last year, this as he surprisingly managed to get 149 at bats against southpaws.

Brandon Phillips - Feb 8/09 - Phillips had an off-year of sorts in 2008 and much of our forecast is based on an analysis of everything that preceded it. His contact rate has held steady between 83% and 84% from the years 2006 to 2008 so we're comfortable projecting a continuation along those lines. His singles per ball in play rate fell to just 20% in 2008, this after a 23% rate in both 2006 and 2007. So, we're projecting a slight return in that aspect of his performance. It's possible that his home run ability really has declined just a bit, this as he turns twenty-eight years old this season, but our overall reading of his ability is that his power numbers from last year may be representative of his current skill but his contact rate and ability to hit singles is more likely revealed by his 2006 to 2007 performance. Thus we're expecting his batting average to bounce back in 2009 and he remains a strong candidate to continue putting up 20-20 seasons for at least a little while longer.

Juan Pierre - Feb 22/09 - As everyone pays attention to the disastrous Andruw Jones contract that the Dodgers had to eat this past off-season, it's easy to forget that Pierre was the reason Matt Kemp had to wait to break through to become what everyone now knows he is.  Pierre's massive contract meant (and still does mean) that he has to get at least some playing time and that obviously translates to steals...

Jorge Posada - Mar 1/09 - Last year obviously tells us very little and we think he's capable of rebounding to being a productive player, just not at the lofty levels he was once so well-established at.  His injury risk is quite high compared to where it was even two years ago.

Albert Pujols - Feb 8/09 - It's interesting that all the talk last winter was how risky a pick he was and you saw him actually lasting into fantasy drafts beyond the first selections because of injury concerns.  All he did was go out and have an even better year in 2008 than 2007, even with a bit of missed time.  He remains a remarkable player and our forecast is right in line with last year's numbers, though we think he may have overachieved just slightly in the singles and doubles column.  Still, if he weren't even a home run hitter he would have tremendous value for the batting average he contributes and his career average now sits at .334, this after more than 4,500 at bats.  There's not a lot more one can say about him that hasn't already been said except that if you can get him in any format, then do so.

Nick Punto - Feb 22/09 - He's a tough player to figure out.  Is he the .210 hitter of two years ago whose only contribution is that he's always good for double digit steals or is he the .284 hitter of last year who suddenly improved his doubles skill?  Chances are good that his real skill is somewhere between the two.  The thing about Punto that makes him particularly interesting is that he's one of those 15-20 stolen base types who often lasts late into a fantasy draft and can be had for a dime despite the steal production, this because he's a sure thing to pretty much not help anywhere else.  We're expecting him to continue being that kind of player, though his speed could decline anytime in the next couple of years given that he's now thirty-one years of age and wasn't exactly a league leader in that respect.

Aramas Ramirez - Feb 8/09 - Expect more of the same in 2009 with the only concern being how often he can stay in the lineup, this as he hasn't cleared 150 games since 2006.  He underachieved slightly last year in making contact so his average should bounce back just a little.  His power has likely peaked at this stage of his career.

Hanley Ramirez - Jan 25/09 - Ramirez's 2008 season looks just about right to us in terms of his ability and he's stabilizing a bit more than some players his age would normally (he turned twenty-five in December).  Even as he ages, his speed is good enough to last for a while and the one area where we're forecasting a different player than we've seen is that we expect that eventually, he should shift to becoming more of an RBI type than a run-scoring player, this as we see him as a player much more likely to settle into the lineup in the #3 or #4 spot before long...

Mark Reynolds - Feb 8/09 - We expect that at twenty-five years of age, Reynolds should now see a significant improvement in contact rate compared to the dismal 62% rate of a year ago. There are only a few big league hitters who stay in this territory deep into their twenties, unless of course they end up back in the minor leagues, something we should never rule out with a hitter as young as Reynolds (coming off such a disappointing batting average, even with last year's home run and RBI totals considered). If he starts making even a bit more contact, as we project he will, his other rates of performance should hold up nicely and he is capable of then settling in as a productive long-term .260-something hitting third baseman with good power and gap ability. We don't forecast him to ever become a .300 hitter in the majors, something he showed flashes of in portions of minor-league seasons at Single-A and Double-A, and he may be most hurt skipping Triple-A completely in 2007, going straight from Double-A Mobile to the majors that year.

Alex Rios - Jan 25/09 - If we're being honest, we can't tell you what happened to Rios last year that caused him to shift from being a candidate to win the 2007 All Star home run contest to a sudden base-stealer with only limited power.  Sight unseen if he were a complete unknown player for which we had only the numbers, we would presume that he just lost weight which would explain a drop in power and increase in speed.  But the best we can determine, he was pretty much the same physical size and shape as a year earlier when he set a career-high for home runs.  His newfound running game does look to be for real but be aware that he caught a lot of pitchers and catchers off guard early in 2008 and a whopping 23 of his 32 steals came before the All Star break.

Juan Rivera - Feb 22/09 - We obviously can't forecast more playing time (we forecasted 133 games, he ended up playing  138), even as he was expected to be a regular.  Remember, Rivera hasn't played more than 134 games in a season in his entire big league career and it's not for lack of wanting.  That the Angels invested so much in him this past off-season (giving him a $13 million deal spread out over three years) leads us to believe he finally has a lock on a spot in the lineup.  Assuming he can stay healthy, he's going to push his career high in at bats this season.

Cody Ross - Feb 22/09 - He sort of quietly had a good season last year and we think he can continue to do that.  In fact, he's shown this type of power in limited action in 2006 and 2007 as well, even better potential in fact, and we see no reason why he can't have another season just like 2008.  His biggest challenge is that he doesn't walk much and since he doesn't hit for a high average, an extended slump could easily jeopardize his job security.

Aaron Rowand - Feb 8/09 - At thirty-one years of age now and given that he's only played more than 140 games in a season a grand total of three times in his career, we just can't forecast continued playing time as he's seen the past couple of years.  Setting that aside, his other skills are intact and he actually had a bit of a fluke off-season last year in making contact.  His power isn't what it was even two years ago (you could likely successfully argue that 2007 was an overperformance) but if we think in terms of what he's done in 2005-2006 and 2008, mix all that together to about 140 games, you end up with approximately the forecast we've produced here.  His running game, while absent last year, is still good enough to run a bit more than we saw and we'd be surprised if he doesn't pick up at least a handful of steals this season.

Freddy Sanchez - Feb 8/09 - It looks likely now that his league-leading.344 average of 2006 was a bit of an overachievement, largely because of an uncharacteristic and unrepeatable singles and doubles rate that season, not to mention a career-best 91% contact rate that year as well. He actually still is a good contact hitter and we're projecting essentially the same contact and singles ability as last year with somewhat of a rebound in the doubles category, this based upon how well he did in 2006 and 2007 in that column. Assuming his home run rate stays steady, that means his batting average should bounce back a little with the greatest concern related to Sanchez's ability to play a full season. Since that excellent 2006 season, he's seen a successive drop in games played each year and he remains a moderate injury risk.

Luke Scott - Mar 1/09 - Our earliest forecasts went back and forth on Scott, particularly because when the Orioles signed Ty Wigginton, we thought Scott would be the odd man out in this equation.  As spring training approached, it appeared that the Orioles would make Scott a frequent DH and and occasional outfielder with Wigginton the more likely one battling to find at bats.  Even expecting Scott to be a near regular, we can't go any higher on the projected playing time than we have (we were forecasting 140 games, he ended up playing 128).  At thirty-one years of age, last year's 475 at bats were a big league career high.

Ichiro Suzuki - Feb 7/09 - It's always difficult to explain a forecast such as Ichiro's in this space and every year we have at least a few where it's necessary. Every player at some stage of their career will, inevitably, see a decline in playing time. It's one of those certainties that no one lasts forever and the challenge upon the forecaster is to project when that decline will occur. Some readers, perhaps justifiably, have argued to us that we should wait for the first year when a player shows his decline in playing time and then and only then begin to forecast that he won't stay healthy for the subsequent season. We just can't do that. Just as we said in this space last year in relation to our Alex Rodriguez forecast or, a year earlier, in relation to Miguel Tejada, the signs begin to point us in the direction of at least forecasting even one season where playing time is reduced. Some players bounce back nicely after such a season, perhaps benefiting from the extra rest beyond that which the off-season already affords them. In Ichiro's case, he has now hit or is approaching that age. Turning thirty-five this past winter, he has managed to play in virtually every game since he arrived in the majors in 2001. In fact, the past five years, he's never missed more than one game in a season, and that may even drop him into the sort of territory where we used to be forced to forecast someone like Cal Ripken to play 160 or 161 games every year. However, Ichiro is not Cal Ripken and there are elements to his game that make him more injury prone, even if the injury hasn't happened yet. Our expectation is that he is as likely to play fewer games than he is to play more games than the number that we have projected and if we're right about the projected drop in playing time, or at least the associated risk, that would bring his numbers down significantly across the board, particularly in the stolen base column where so many have come to depend upon him...

Ryan Sweeney - Feb 8/09 - Sweeney's performance in 2008 looks just about right to us based upon his ability and we're forecasting about the same production over a greater number of that bats, this as he headed into 2009 looking like a regular in the lineup.  The only element of his game that looks unsustainable is that surprisingly good 90% success rate at stealing bases last year, but other than that expect virtually the same player in 2009.  While he's still young, we expect he needs a full season as a regular before we can project him to move too much along that upward curve.

Mark Teahen - Feb 8/09 - We believe that Teahen is still improving in both singles and doubles ability, has probably peaked power-wise, and has shown in the past that he can run just a little bit more than he did in 2008. Mixing all that together produces a forecast where we expect his average to bounce back to around his career batting average rate of .268, this as he opens the season twenty-seven years of age.  There was talk during the off-season that the Royals would move him to second base in spring training.

Ryan Theriot - Feb 8/09 - Theriot's forecast is almost entirely rooted in the belief that he didn't suddenly become a singles machine at twenty-eight years of age.  His singles per ball in play rate in 2008 was an extremely high 30%, as compared to 22% and 23% in 2007 and 2006 respectively. He may have improved some, as our forecast reflects, but if we're right that he overachieved even a little in this category last year, his average is going to come back down to the .280s to .290s.  The rest of his forecast is pretty much in line with what he did last year and we think 2008 was otherwise a fairly accurate representation of his skill.

Jim Thome - Mar 1/09 - A high injury risk, his power is fading fast now and the trend appears to be on a constant downward slope.  What's good for him is that he was so powerful in his prime that even a 50-75% version of his old self is more powerful than many players would ever be and so that continues to give him value even as he heads into the season thirty-eight years old.

Chad Tracy - Feb 22/09 - His power actually should be just passing prime ability now, this as he turns twenty-nine in May.  Even with as many games as we're forecasting, that he couldn't stay healthy last year isn't the only concern.  He hasn't played more than 88 big league games in a season since 2006 so we'll need to keep a close eye on him in the spring.

Troy Tulowitzki - From Jan 14/09 essay at site: "He's only a year removed from a .291, 24 home run, 99 RBI performance and injuries and a slight overachievement in 2007 were the reasons he had such a disappointing season in 2008. The good news is that because he performed so far off his 2007 pace last year, he'll be sliding down draft sheets enough that he could actually become a potential bargain.

Remember the following: (a) He is only twenty-four years old and thus is unlikely to have declined in skills, (b) He battled a quad injury even when he was active and should be healthy for the start of this upcoming season, (c) He signed a contract worth more than $30 million before the start of last season and thus has virtually absolute job security when he's healthy, (d) He plays half of his games in a home park that the past three years has averaged inflating home runs for right-handed hitters by about 27% and (e) Did we mention he's only twenty-four?...

Dan Uggla - Feb 8/09 - We expect his doubles and home run rate to begin dropping now and that should affect his batting average slightly.  Considering his lower rate of home runs per ball in play in 2006 and 2007 and his age, we don't believe we're really out on a limb projecting a reversion of sorts in this column for 2009.

Justin Upton - Feb 8/09 - Presuming he can stay in the lineup for an entire season, his minor-league career implies a much better player than we saw last year.  His doubles and home run ability are now already established as a solid starting point, and he can make contact at a much better pace than he showed in last season's disappointing 356 at bats in that respect (his contact rate was just 66% in 2008 compared to 74% in fewer big league at bats a year earlier).  So, if he starts making contact even remotely in line with what he was doing in the minor leagues, his average will come way up.

Vernon Wells - Feb 8/09 - He missed a lot of time last year and has arguably joined the ranks of the injury-prone. He also apparently overachieved in both the rate in which he was putting balls in play and the percentage of those which happened to fall for singles, meaning he's very likely to see a drop in batting average back down to more typical territory. Remember, he's only one year removed from having hit a disappointing .245.  We expect his real ability is somewhere between the past two seasons and our forecast is almost exactly in line with that, with the exception that he is more likely to play 149 games, as he did in 2007, then he is to play last year's disappointing 108. Otherwise, it now appears that at thirty years of age, we can safely say that the Vernon Wells we saw in, say, 2003, was a much better player than the Vernon Wells we see now.

Jayson Werth - Feb 22/09 - Werth has finally arrived, this after being given up on by several teams which would probably love to have him back.  His power is for real and the surprising speed appears to be too.  How many would have guessed (or for that matter, even have noticed after the fact) that Werth was a 20-20 man last year?  He heads into this season with an apparent everyday job in the lineup and the only risks here really are that (a) he's never played in a big league season more than he did last year and (b) that he'll already turn thirty this season.  Other than that, he's still an underrated player even with what he did in 2008.  He's also one of those rare players we believe can maintain an incredibly high stolen base percentage.  Now over his career of more than 1,300 at bats, he's tried to steal 49 bases and has only been caught 5 times - a 90% success rate.  He knows how to pick his spots.

Josh Willingham - Feb 22/09 - Raise your hand if you would guess that he's actually already thirty years old.  Well, he is and that's with just three full seasons in the majors, including last year's injury-shortened campaign.  We do expect he can bounce back with his more typical amount of playing time but given that he's never played more than 144 games in a season, we just can't go any higher with our forecast here.

Jack Wilson - Feb 22/09 - A good contact hitter with a remarkably consistent singles rate (exactly 23% each of the past three years), he missed a lot of time last year thanks to multiple injuries.  While he heads into 2009 with his job intact, we can't go any higher on the games played forecast as he hasn't cleared 142 games since 2005.

Randy Winn - Feb 8/09 - Be warned that last year's stolen base success rate is almost certainly something he can't do again (he was successful in 93% of his 27 steal attempts), especially considering that his career success rate is 70% and that he'll turn thirty-five years old this year.  In fact, we expect the decline to begin now, particularly in the speed column and it should impact his ability to hit singles, which will obviously have an effect on his batting average.

Ryan Zimmerman - From  Jan 14/09 essay at site: "Admittedly, he was listed in this space (the "sleepers" category) last year before shoulder and hand injuries derailed his 2008 campaign. So, we'll list him here again for the same reasons as last year and that is that the talent he's already displayed early in his career, mixed with his age (twenty-four) implies that he should soon have a career year, beyond that which we saw in 2006 or 2007. We currently project him for 2009 to have a career-best batting average, clear 25+ home runs for the first time and to hit his typical 40+ doubles, 90+ runs scored and 100+ RBI with a handful of steals thrown in for good measure.

In fact, if you pro-rate Zimmerman's disappointing 2008 season to the number of at bats he had a year earlier, it would have scaled out to 21 home runs, 37 doubles, 78 runs and 78 RBI. Given his overall numbers to date and that he's still so young, it's a relatively safe projection that Zimmerman will rebound in 2009."

PITCHERS (in alphabetical order)

Jose Arredondo - Mar 1/09 - He was outstanding last year though it's unlikely he can maintain that sort of level.  Setting home runs aside from the equation, only 24% of balls in play against him fell for hits and that should be higher.  Also, his stuff and location don't look like the type of pitcher who should allow so few home runs in the long run...

Brian Bannister - Mar 1/09 - A much better pitcher than last year's totals would have you believe, he led the league in runs allowed with 127, largely because his home runs allowed rate ballooned to unlikely territory and he allowed an unlucky number of hits per ball in play other than home runs.  If he allowed even an ordinary percentage of balls in play for hits and if his home run rate rebounds, as we think it should, his ERA will improve significantly...

Josh Beckett - Feb 8/09 - Neither as good as he looked in 2007 nor as "bad" as he looked last year, it's interesting that his strikeout stuff has never really translated to preventing hits the way it does for some other pitchers.  Even with a projected improvement in ERA compared to a year ago, we do think that he's been overachieving somewhat in the walks column and that as he continues to age (he'll turn twenty-nine in May), hitters will lay off more pitches and his walk totals should rise slightly.

Heath Bell - From Jan 21/09 essay at the site: ...His innings will now drop but it will be because he's the heir-apparent to Trevor Hoffman and so the trade-off here will be that his innings go down somewhat in favor of a big boost in potential saves.  Not only do we believe he underachieved last year but even that so-called decline season saw him allow only 66 hits in 78 innings while walking 28.  We project Bell as the type of pitcher who can exceed 20 saves for a bad team with an ERA around 3.00 and a WHIP in the 1.10-1.15 range.  His home park definitely won't hurt him either.

Chad Billingsley - Feb 8/09 - He's put up two outstanding seasons.  There are a few things to keep in mind: (a) We don't often project pitchers to have ERAs as low as he had last year because we've found that it just isn't smart forecasting with only the rarest of exceptions, (b) A lot of that 2007 season came when he was in the bullpen, (c) His ERA should have been higher than it was in both years.  Okay, that's about as far as we can go with bad news here because actually, we're forecasting Billingsley to continue to be dominant and even with a rise in projected ERA, we're actually forecasting the other numbers to not only stay where they are but we think he's been a bit unlucky in the hits allowed column.  He's definitely arrived and we just hope he doesn't blow something out given his pitching style.  As a side note, he was in the news in December for breaking his leg after slipping on his steps but it wasn't expected to affect his Opening Day status.

Joe Blanton - Feb 8/09 - A greater share of his mistakes were turned into home runs last year than usually happens (i.e. he was pitching about the same as before) and if that rebounds to more typical levels, he should see his ERA drop back down somewhat.  Other than that, he's become a fairly ordinary starter who at least always manages to stay in the rotation, will neither win you a Cy Young nor completely destroy your team ERA either and who can do better than the 9 wins we saw last year, having won 14, 16 and 12 in 2007, 2006 and 2005 respectively.  Also worth noting is that after the trade to Philadelphia, he went 4-0 with a 4.20 ERA in 13 starts.

Jonathan Broxton - Mar 1/09 - He's taken over as the closer now and rightfully so.  We believe his real ability is right about between what he's done the past couple of years and we were glad to see the Dodgers not end up with Trevor Hoffman as we're looking forward to seeing Broxton as the closer here over a full season.

A. J. Burnett - Feb 8/09 - Just about every A.J. Burnett comment in the history of modern fantasy baseball can start with the phrase "if he could only stay healthy" and then you fill in the blank after that. In this case, we're breaking from tradition. We actually think Burnett has a decent shot to stay healthy enough to at least be worth some attention. Working against a strong forecast is that his 2008 season, widely described as his career year, was perhaps below typical standards if one looks at a per start basis rather than at the grand totals that tend to excite some. He did lead the league in strikeouts with 231 and easily topped his previous career high of 12 wins with a new mark of 18, but his ERA was 4.07, he allowed almost a hit per inning, something he wasn't doing earlier in his career, and he is now thirty-two years old, meaning that we're not likely to forecast him to continue striking out batters at this pace for much longer. Expect his strikeout totals to begin declining, he will have trouble matching the 34 starts of a year ago, and expect a repeat ERA around 4.00, which is just a bit higher than his 3.81 career average, most of which came in the National League.

Joba Chamberlain - Feb 22/09 - A tricky forecast to make because we're now required to project how he would do if he spends a full season as a starter.  Clearly, his ERA would rise in that role and if anything, our greatest concern with Joba is that we're not sure how deep into games he'll go as there are question marks not only about his endurance but about how the Yankees want to handle him.  The Yankees have said that they are going to manage his workload carefully so we can't go much higher on the innings forecast here (we were forecasting 149 innings, he ended up with 157.1), which will limit his value somewhat.

Francisco Cordero - Mar 1/09 - He's now settled in as a fairly reliable closer who won't usually dominate but who is a low risk to have a bad season either.  He hasn't had an ERA over 4.00 since way back in 2000 and he's also been a bit unlucky in recent years on the percentage of balls in play that are falling for hits so we think he can do better in that respect.

Johnny Cueto - Feb 22/09 - Cueto was a little better than we were expecting, though not much, and the concerns we raised last year did indeed prove to be problematic for him.  To his credit, he does have good stuff and is young enough that he should still be getting better.  He can keep the ball down more and that even a repeat version of his 2008 still helps in strikeouts makes him interesting.  Though we're projecting him to be better, we're not forecasting instant greatness here.

John Danks - Feb 22/09 - He allowed so many home runs in 2007 (28 in 139 innings) that there's just no way we can guarantee a repeat of his surprisingly good 2008 home runs allowed rate as his pitching style didn't look that different to us, despite how the results appears...

Ryan Dempster - Feb 22/09 - We're extremely skeptical about last year's performance and there's pretty clear evidence that a repeat is unlikely.  Remember, he's already going to turn thirty-two in May, has more than 1,400 career big league innings and as a starter (which he's spent more than half of his career), he had never had an ERA better than 3.66 in any season before last year.  Also consider that in the two years leading up to 2008, years in which he had been used exclusively as a reliever, he had ERAs of almost 5.00 both years and a pitcher will generally have a lower ERA when used as a reliever rather than as a starter.  We expect an across-the-board drop to more ordinary numbers this year, though still much better than we would have forecasted a year ago.  We have to give some credit for what appears to be improvement in his control.

Gavin Floyd - Feb 22/09 - Floyd almost certainly overachieved last year and our forecast reflects that belief.  His strikeout rate is okay but he allows far too many home runs and walks, even last year, to believe that there's much of a chance of maintaining sub-4.00 ERAs and he likely should have allowed more hits than he did given the number of balls put in play against him.

Frank Francisco - From Jan 21/09 essay at the site: "... We're betting on 20-30 saves for him in this bullpen and a mid-3's ERA, which could come relatively cheaply given his lack of experience as a closer,, his home park and that he's by no means a lock to be the closer if he falters in pre-season action."

Brian Fuentes - Mar 1/09 - Fuentes was brought in to give the Angels a veteran closer to replace Francisco Rodriguez and to give Jose Arredondo more time to gain experience and Fuentes should do just that.  The strikeout rate he's had is unlikely to last much longer now that he's approaching thirty-four years of age but otherwise, he should continue to be a reliable closer who now pitches for a superior team.

Armando Galarraga - Feb 22/09 - We'll be shocked if he comes anywhere close to last year's performance.  Not only is he already twenty-seven but his ERA at Double-A Frisco in 2007 was 4.02 and that's not even adjusting for the level of competition and in the portion of that season he was at Triple-A, he went 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA in 4 starts.  Remember too that this is the same pitcher who had a 5.49 ERA in 2006 at Double-A and an ERA of 5.00 in 2005 at Double-A and it all adds up to someone you should be cautious about, no matter how good he looked in 2008.  That he takes so many chances high in the strike zone and allows more than his share of home runs is going to burn him in the long run and he also got tremendously lucky on the number of balls in play that fell for hits last year.  Setting aside his home runs allowed for a moment, of remaining balls in play that fell for singles, doubles or triples, only 23% fell in last year and we expect that rate to move up at least a few percentage points in 2009.  HIs performance last year will have justifiably earned him another round in the rotation, though.

Yovani Gallardo - From Jan 21/09 essay at the site: "He's not going to end up with an ERA below 2.00 in the long run but he missed almost the entire season and so those fantasy leaguers who depend on things like three year averages or last year's stats alone are going to miss out.  Especially encouraging was that he made it back to the majors before the end of the 2008 season.  We're not projecting that he instantly becomes Cy Young but he's definitely ready to be a contributor and in particular, we think he's capable of immediately helping significantly in the strikeouts column...

Jon Garland - Feb 8/09 - He allowed an unlucky number of hits last year, even though he's never been known to be dominant in this category and our forecast is right along the lines of the more typical and fairly consistent seasons he put up in 2006 and 2007.  At twenty-nine, we don't believe he suddenly declined and his ERA last year was the worst of his career since becoming a full-time member of the rotation back in 2002.  Look for a rebound to more familiar territory in ERA and WHIP here.

Tom Glavine - Feb 22/09 - ...Coming off elbow and shoulder problems that required surgery doesn't help his prospects for a bounce-back season.

Mike Gonzalez - Mar 1/09 - His strikeout rate after he made it back promised great things and his previous history implies that he likely won't leave the ball up often enough to allow as many home runs as he did last year so we expect him to pitch better overall...

Jeremy Guthrie - Feb 8/09 - Be warned that (a) given how often he lets hitters put the ball in play and with his pitching style, he should likely be allowing a much greater number of hits in the long run, (b) he has been getting away with more than his share of pitches high in the strike zone, the kind that hitters will hammer if he keeps pitching up there and (c) as inexperienced as he is in the majors, now with just two full seasons under his belt, he will actually already turn thirty in April.  We admire Guthrie's accomplishments the past two years but given these facts, we're projecting a major drop-off here in 2009 as we expect he'll allow close to a hit per inning and see his home runs allowed total go up.

Joel Hanrahan - Mar 1/09 - He headed into spring training as the closer.  He pitched well last year but there are elements of concern, paramount among them is that disastrous 2007 season which still looms fresh in our memory.  His lengthy minor league career mixed with consideration of both last year and 2007 doesn't promise long-term greatness here.

Aaron Harang - Feb 8/09 - Harang was a bit unlucky last year and our forecast combines consideration of not only his disappointing 2008 performance but takes a close look at what he did in 2006 and 2007 as well.  We do expect his control numbers are declining just a little but other than that his stuff is such that he should be allowing fewer hits and fewer home runs.

Livan Hernandez - Feb 8/09 - ...while we're forecasting that he may not be as bad as he looked last year, he's still provided enough evidence for us to forecast some pretty disastrous results.  His WHIP numbers the past three years are always around or above the 1.50 mark, he hasn't had an ERA better than 4.83 since 2005 and as of early February, he still hadn't found a new team either.  Steer clear.

Trevor Hoffman - Mar 1/09 - The veteran Hoffman moves on to a new team and he's still good enough that he should have plenty of saves still left in him.  In fact, we doubt that he's going to allow as many home runs per inning as he did last year because his previous history implies he can be so much better in that respect and his pitching style wasn't different enough in 2008 to explain the home runs allowed total.  If that number rebounds some, he should bounce back a bit ERA-wise and of course, he's always a good bet to get plenty of saves.

Bobby Jenks - Mar 1/09 - He's likely just about to move beyond his prime now and we expect the walks and home runs allowed rate to start rising.  Even then, he can do better on the strikeout rate than he showed last year.

Scott Kazmir - Feb 22/09 - This was an extremely difficult forecast to publish (we were forecasting a career-worst 4.41 ERA after three consecutive sub 3.50 ERAs posted by Kazmir), not only because it will be so unpopular given what he's done but because it would seem to fly in the face of his recent performances.  Let's take a closer look: First, we believe that if he perfectly repeated his exact number of hits, walks and home runs allowed totals from last year, that his ERA would be and should have been higher.  Second, he allowed an uncharacteristically low number of hits per ball in play (looking at his home runs separately, only 26% of balls in play fell for hits compared to 33% and 31% in 2007 and 2006 respectively).  Next, the number of home runs he allowed was a bad sign, jumping by 5 home runs even though he pitched more than 50 fewer innings than a year earlier.  His walk rate was worse than 2007, which was worse than 2006 and the one thing he's got going for him is his raw stuff, which should enable him to continue piling up the strikeouts.  We know we're out on a limb projecting him to be so "bad" but we sincerely believe that the signs of the past two years are pointing to a major drop-off, even before he reaches his prime.  If his control goes back to where it was two or three years ago or if he can go back to keeping the ball down as he did in 2006, well then we'll be completely wrong about him.

John Lackey - Feb 8/09 - He missed the first six weeks of the season with a triceps strain and though he was exceptional for the first 9 or 10 starts of the season, after that he looked like an entirely different pitcher, not even a shadow of his former self.  He finished with his worst ERA since 2004, posting a 5.42 ERA after June 1st.  While we believe he's better than that, we don't see him staying at the level he was at in 2007 and we believe the inevitable decline has now just begun and should continue.  The one exception to this is the home run column.  Lackey did give up a surprisingly high number of home runs and the best we can tell, he was pitching with the same style as always, not leaving the ball up an unusually high amount compared to what he had in 2006-2007.  Ironically, we also think Lackey's ERA should have been higher than it was based on last year's total so even if the home runs allowed comes back down, we can still see his ERA actually being higher in 2009 than it was in 2008...

Derek Lowe - Feb 8/09 - Lowe's been a consistently good pitcher in recent years and wll now get a fresh start in Atlanta.  Our main concern here is that he's actually getting up there in age, turning thirty-six this year, and our age model as it applies to pitchers like him pushes us to theorize that he should start to see a quite obvious decline in strikeouts, which go in hand with a corresponding increase in walks and hits allowed.  He'll still keep the ball down and won't allow many home runs but quite soon, we do expect him to see a drop-off in his usual level of performance.

John Maine - Feb 22/09 - Our primary concern here is that Maine's stuff seems to be declining a little, even as he just turns twenty-eight this season, and he had surgery to remove a lesion from his shoulder at the end of 2008.  His control also seems to have dropped off the past year or two.

Daisuke Matsuzaka - Feb 22/09 - There's just no way we can project anything close to a repeat of last year.  He actually posted an identical WHIP (1.32) as he did in 2007 and yet his ERA fell from 4.40 to 2.90.  We believe that his real ERA should be somewhere between those two numbers, likely on the higher end of the two.  Part of this belief is rooted in the theory that he can't maintain as low a hits per inning rate as he showed last year, particularly because he had just about the same strikeout rate in 2007 but allowed almost a hit per inning...

Scott Olsen - Feb 8/09 - We believe that Olsen overachieved significantly in 2008, this as he still allowed almost a hit per inning and saw his strikeout totals go down as his innings went up...

Roy Oswalt - Feb 8/09 - While Oswalt did exceed our expectations in 2008, we did also warn in this space last year that the age model mixed with our analysis of his skills projected a career-worst in home runs allowed, which he went on to do by allowing 23 home runs last year compared with his previous career high allowed of 18. Our concerns remain on that front and we can't forecast Oswalt to maintain his stellar pace much longer. While he was better last year than we projected, he did have his worst ERA in any season of his career at 3.54, and at thirty-one years of age, we don't expect him to ever return to the glory days of 2004 to 2006.

Vicente Padilla - Feb 8/09 - He proved that he's better than his terrible 2007 season but that doesn't really mean much as even if he performs about as he did last year, something we forecast he will, it doesn't offer much hope in the ERA column beyond the potential for maybe the sort of season he had in 2006 or 2005.  In fact, he's had ERAs in the mid 4's every year since 2004 except for that near-6.00 outing in 2007 and we don't expect that trend to ever reverse itself at this point.

Mike Pelfrey - Feb 22/09 - The way he pitches, he should be allowing way more home runs than he did last year and we expect that to happen this season.  Moreover, he lets hitters put the ball in play enough that he's always going to allow about a hit per inning and his control isn't good enough yet to be a good bet to keep his ERA under 4.00.  Even at his age (twenty-five), we will be very surprised if he can put up back to back seasons like 2008, especially considering the weight of evidence that preceded it.

Troy Percival - Mar 1/09 - ...You have to believe that in the next year or two, the Rays are going to start considering other long-term candidates to be their closer.

Andy Pettitte - Feb 8/09 - His stuff has always been the type that should confound so-called DIPS theorists as he always allows more than his share of hits on balls in play than the average pitcher.  Even given his age, we think that he can continue to perform as he did last year for another couple of seasons, assuming he continues to get the starts, and his WHIP has been a remarkably consistent but unexciting 1.41, 1.43 and 1.44 each of the past three seasons, this as he's been slightly unlucky even by his standards on allowing hits.  He's not the type of pitcher who should suddenly drop off and we expect a much more Kenny Rogers like finish to his career if he decides it's worth continuing beyond 2009.  Since our first projection sets were published, he decided to return to the Yankees.

Chad Qualls - Mar 1/09 - Be warned that he likely overachieved in the home runs allowed column, as the previous two years sort of demonstrate and if those numbers came back up to former territory, we expect the ERA to rise significantly, particularly because we think his ERA should have been much higher than it was in 2007 as well.

Horacio Ramirez - Feb 22/09 - ... He allows too many hits to have much of a shot at a surprisingly good season.

Francisco Rodriguez - Mar 1/09 - It might surprise readers but we actually believe K-Rod has moved just beyond his prime, a young prime compared to some other pitchers but something we're theorizing based on the style of pitcher he was/is.  In fact, his strikeout rate has dropped quite a bit compared to a few years ago and as it continues to decline, we believe he'll see a detectable drop in performance...

Jonathan Sanchez - Mar 1/09 - At twenty-six to start the 2009 season, he pitched much better than 2008's ERA total revealed.  In fact, his ERA should have been in the low to mid 4's if he had experienced ordinary luck and our forecast is that he's going to pitch almost exactly the same in 2009 with a more appropriate ERA coming as a result of that.

Ervin Santana - Jan 25/09 - Be warned: While Santana did have an outstanding year, there is evidence that he may have overperformed.  His control and strikeout rate did improve but what's working against him here is that he's already twenty-six and there is just so much to consider prior to 2008, three straight years of subpar performance that saw him incapable of getting his ERA below 4.25.  We are forecasting him as if he's a much-improved pitcher over two years ago but are not prepared to project a repeat of last year, partially because we're not sure he can continue to keep his walks down as he did last year.  If we're wrong about the walks, we'll be wrong about the ERA...

Johan Santana - Jan 25/09 - There are already just the slightest hints of the decline that will inevitably happen over the next 10-15 years.  His strikeout total (206) was the lowest he's posted since becoming a full-time starter in 2004 and this happened when (a) he pithced a career-high number of innings and (b) he had moved from the AL to the NL.  The ERA was obviously nothing to complain about as he was tops in the league but based on the primary numbers, it should have been higher.  He now shifts from a home park that reduced run-scoring by about 5% in 2008 to a new park with unknown effects.   Most of the 2009 forecast is rooted in the belief that his ERA should have been much higher based on the rest of the pitching line and that at his age (he turns 30 in March), he should begin to experience just the slightest tug downwards as the result of age.

Joe Saunders - Feb 8/09 - Given that he'll turn twenty-eight this year and the heavy weight of his performance prior to 2008, we think it's unlikely that he improved as much as he simply had a favorable season.  A closer look at his numbers reveals that his control improved slightly but his stuff was pretty much the same (if not worse) than it was in 2007, a year he put up a 4.45 ERA.  We're expecting a return to that kind of performance this season but he's got good job security now anyway.

Max Scherzer - From Jan 21/09 essay at the site: "He's going to be a full-time starter now, having split last year between the bullpen and the rotation.  He was absolutely dominant last year, striking out 79 batters in 53 innings before carrying that over to the majors, where he struck out 66 in just 56 innings.  He won't give up many home runs, will allow fewer than a hit per inning and will be among the leaders in strikeouts if he stays healthy and in the rotation.  In fact, we have very few concerns about Scherzer at this point with the exception that he's so new to the pro ranks that he's never thrown more than 109 innings in a professional season.  The moment Randy Johnson left, Scherzer's place in the starting rotation became fairly certain barring an absolute spring collapse."

Joakim Soria - Mar 1/09 - He's rapidly become one of the better closers around but pitches in a market where he gets less attention.  Working against a repeat of last year's performance is that (a) there are few pitchers in baseball history who could maintain that sort of ERA in the long run (even Mariano Rivera's career ERA is 2.29) and (b) he had some luck go his way with only 20% of non home run balls in play falling for hits, a number that should probably be closer to 25%, the rate he posted in 2007.  Even having said that, he's poised to have many more outstanding seasons and is now firmly entrenched as the closer here.

Huston Street - Mar 1/09 - Street went into spring training in a battle with Manny Corpas for the closer's job.  Like Corpas, Street is a better pitcher than 2008 showed but he's still been more consistent than Corpas and has much more closing experience, which would seem to give him an edge.

Jeff Suppan - Feb 8/09 - We're seeing his real ability in those 2008 results, an ability which is less than it was two years ago, and he should be projected to continue doing the same with what appears to be a pretty safe spot in the rotation.  Even with relatively mediocre results lately, he's now started 31 games or more in every one of the past ten years.

Javier Vazquez - Jan 25/09 - Vazquez pitched much better than his ERA revealed last year...

Chris Volstad - Feb 22/09 - Headed for his first full season in the rotation, we're not forecasting anything close to what he did in 2008.  The reason is simple: His minor league career promises an entirely different type of pitcher and we don't believe he's suddenly put it all together.  While he deserves praise his for his 2008 season, a year earlier as low as Single-A, he allowed 152 hits in just 126 innings and the year before that, 161 hits in 152 innings at low-A...

Tim Wakefield - Feb 8/09 - His age is not really much of a factor, unlike other pitchers in their early forties, this because his knuckleball really hasn't deriorated over the years.  His control probably should decline slightly, as we project, but otherwise the other skills should hold up.  The only bad news here is that his track record is so heavy that we can pretty safely tell you that the number of hits allowed per inning last year was not what we should typically expect and we're forecasting that to return to his ordinary totals, which should boost his ERA and WHIP back up to more familiar territory.  To Wakefield's credit, he hasn't had a truly disastrous season in almost ten years and now has posted six straight seasons of ERAs between 4.09 and 4.87 with double digit wins in six of the past seven years.

Jered Weaver - Feb 8/09 - He's a great example of what happens when pitchers have a great half-season break through.  That is, everyone expects that you're instantly going to be Cy Young, pays and drafts in fantasy auctions accordingly and then he goes out and actually has decent results given his inexperience and ends up slotted into the disappointment category.  We believe that Weaver's real ability is somewhere between what he's shown the past two years and that works out to okay strikeout totals, not too many home runs allowed, about a hit allowed per inning and good walk numbers that don't destroy a team.  If you're looking for the 2006 numbers over a full season, they're highly unlikely.

Brian Wilson - Mar 1/09 - He got a lot of saves for someone who pitched as poorly as he did and, to give credit where it's due, he's capable of being a much better pitcher than that as he got unlucky on the percentage of balls that were falling for hits last year...

Randy Wolf - Feb 22/09 - A decent pitcher whose skills pretty much match what the 2008 numbers reveal, he's a bit of an underrated strikeout pitcher because of his age (thirty-two) and because before last year, the previous time he had posted triple digit big league strikeout totals in a season was way back in 2003.  He's carved out a second career for himself, of sorts, and signed a one year deal with the Dodgers this off-season, a good fit for him to continue getting plenty of innings.

Kerry Wood - Mar 1/09 - His skills are now fairly self-evident as a closer even though we expect his strikeout rate to decline some now along with a slight decline in control too.  Other than that, he should continue pitching just about as he has. 

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